ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[StruThiO]

do you mean when you posted CFS wants it?

it wants la nina. weeks of enhanced trades (blue shades) over the entire pacific and anomalous westerlies (red shades) over the indian ocean with low level convergence over the maritime continent which will help produce thunderstorms and lower pressures there.

[Kingarabian]

CFS wants it

[url]https://i.imgur.com/b8Btbhk.png[url]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

[cycloneye]

CFS wants it

[url]https://i.imgur.com/b8Btbhk.png[url]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

What has been expected by all the experts forecasting the season as none have forecast moderate to strong La Niña.

[toad strangler]

CFS wants it

[url]https://i.imgur.com/b8Btbhk.png[url]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

Why is it UNFORTUNATE that there are lower chances of a strong La Nina?

[Ubuntwo]

CFS wants it

[url]https://i.imgur.com/b8Btbhk.png[url]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

Why is it UNFORTUNATE that there are lower chances of a strong La Nina?

They're in Hawaii, a La Nina would lead to a lower chance of TC strikes and more rainfall.

[toad strangler]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

Why is it UNFORTUNATE that there are lower chances of a strong La Nina?

They're in Hawaii, a La Nina would lead to a lower chance of TC strikes and more rainfall.

OK thanks ..... but TC strikes on Hawaii are super rare anyway. So I'm guessing there is a drought over there and that would be the reason to want a La Nina???

[Kingarabian]

CFS wants it

[url]https://i.imgur.com/b8Btbhk.png[url]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

Why is it UNFORTUNATE that there are lower chances of a strong La Nina?

Years with ENSO closer to cool neutral during ASO have resulted in catastrophic Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to years with a strong or moderate La Nina in place. I've raised this point before.

[Kingarabian]

Also intensifying and retrograding the WWB to cover the entire Pacific east of 180. This will unfortunately lower the chances of a significant La Nina by ASO and will keep the odds in favor of cool-neutral or weak La Nina.

Why is it UNFORTUNATE that there are lower chances of a strong La Nina?

They're in Hawaii, a La Nina would lead to a lower chance of TC strikes and more rainfall.

This is true but the context of my post was towards the Atlantic hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 begins to go up and in fact, the other areas are also going up. I guess there is a WWB moving thru the Pacific.

[NotSparta]

Niño 3.4 begins to go up and in fact, the other areas are also going up. I guess there is a WWB moving thru the Pacific.

https://i.imgur.com/xFC0p1s.jpg

Both the other datasets I use also show some warming recently, so it's not just a CDAS artifact

[Kingarabian]

CFS also extending weak trades or weak westerly anomalies for the next two weeks. We should see the Nino regions level off on the cooling before cooling once again in July.

[NDG]

Officially Nino 3.4 cooled down last week, in average I guess. Below is the update for today:

Nino 1+2 down to -0.4C
Nino 3 up to -0.5C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C
Nino 4 down to -0.1C

[StruThiO]

first negative nino 4 value since the week of april 4th, 2018.

[Kingarabian]

first negative nino 4 value since the week of april 4th, 2018.

To me this signals the end of the double dip Modoki regime that's been in place for the past 2 years (note: this is currently not the stance of the CPC).

[Kingarabian]

Latest 46 days EPS continues to show the stagnant sinking pattern over 120E lasting into mid-July. This would not not be an atmospheric pattern that supports a quick transition towards >= moderate strength La Nina by ASO.



PC: Weathermodels.com

[WeatherEmperor]

first negative nino 4 value since the week of april 4th, 2018.

To me this signals the end of the double dip Modoki regime that's been in place for the past 2 years (note: this is currently not the stance of the CPC).

But isnt there a tiny WWB taking place or soon to take place? Wont that warm some of the regions even if its just a little bit?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

first negative nino 4 value since the week of april 4th, 2018.

To me this signals the end of the double dip Modoki regime that's been in place for the past 2 years (note: this is currently not the stance of the CPC).

But isnt there a tiny WWB taking place or soon to take place? Wont that warm some of the regions even if its just a little bit?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes and that's all it is. This WWB is an intra-seasonal feature due to the passage of the active phase of a MJO/CCKW. The background state for the most part supports eventual La Nina development. In the larger scheme of things, all these do is just act as speed-bumps to delay the onset of La Nina. If it were a game changing WWB, it would be centered over the CPAC with a concentrated strength > 12MS.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1268918403068301314

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1268918403068301314[url]

Per the Euro, the 200mb pattern/Walker Circulation is still very behind.

[aspen]

The rate of warming in Niño 3.4 slowed down drastically a few days ago, and within the last 24 hours it’s back to cooling. Still <-0.1 C even after the temporary warming trend.