ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[SFLcane]

Luis...

Graphic???

[HurricaneEnzo]

Every year, before we cross what we all know is the barrier between predictions with NO SKILL and predictions with some skill, we go through this. I'm reading with great interest, but at this point I still feel like it's just a wild guess.

Agreed, but with the Euros proclivity to be on the warm side of things this has definitely piqued my interest.

[SFLcane]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

I'm interested in seeing the Euro updated forecast because that would be a huge shift and change of direction from the model compared to its February forecast.
https://i.imgur.com/yiMvTsX.png

Unless i am missing something that's still warm neutral.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/H4d3iFJ.png

SFLcane

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/H4d3iFJ.png

SFLcane

Saw that its cool neutral

Curious what the Atlantic looks like.

[crownweather]

https://i.imgur.com/H4d3iFJ.png

SFLcane

Saw that its cool neutral

Curious what the Atlantic looks like.

[SFLcane]

Honestly....


Looks like a -AMO kinda. Cool horseshoe with warmth in the subtropics. Not an ideal Atlantic.

[aspen]

SFLcane

Saw that its cool neutral

Curious what the Atlantic looks like.

https://i.imgur.com/1zfVHnt.png

I’m assuming that’s neutral, right?

[Kingarabian]

So just to recap everything in regards to what the Euro's forecast for ENSO for the summer:

In the near future, the Euro warms up the ENSO regions up until the end of April. So if it verifies, we may actually see ONI reach the El Nino requirement. So it's good that it's still accounting for the warmth beneath the Pacific subsurface.

During May, cool anomalies start to spread from Nino 1+2 and into Nino 3 and it appears that a La Nina is coming on. The cool anomalies strengthen until August and look like they begin to weaken by September. No sign of cool anomalies making it past 120W as the run ends in September. So at the time being the Euro appears to be lining up with the CANSIPS and is showing neutral conditions and not an obvious La Nina like the CFS is showing.

Of course all this could mean that model is starting to trend toward La Nina and future runs could eventually show that.

[Kingarabian]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

I'm interested in seeing the Euro updated forecast because that would be a huge shift and change of direction from the model compared to its February forecast.
https://i.imgur.com/yiMvTsX.png

Unless i am missing something that's still warm neutral.

This graphic is based off the February Euro forecast.

[Kingarabian]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

There is a correlation of a +IOD leading to La Nina but 95/96 and 98/99 looked like this compared to where we are now:



So we still have some ways to go in building cooler anomalies beneath the subsurface. Maybe this upcoming period of enhanced trades will do just that.

[crownweather]

Looks more and more that it will be between cold Neutral and La Niña for ASO.

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1235574709191876611

There is a correlation of a +IOD leading to La Nina but 95/96 and 98/99 looked like this compared to where we are now:
https://i.imgur.com/dlOK5yD.png
https://i.imgur.com/J6l2ZRQ.png

So we still have some ways to go in building cooler anomalies beneath the subsurface. Maybe this upcoming period of enhanced trades will do just that.

Of the two, 1995 looks closer to the current conditions. At least to me anyways.

[chaser1]

Every year, before we cross what we all know is the barrier between predictions with NO SKILL and predictions with some skill, we go through this. I'm reading with great interest, but at this point I still feel like it's just a wild guess.

Totally agree. To me, ENSO trends suggest that the upcoming Atlantic Season will definitively fall somewhere in between "grossly over-active" and "zero activity altogether" LOL. Hindsight analysis suggests that I have a near 100% of being accurate here

Way I see it is, long range ENSO trends are one thing, multi-model continuity is another, and forecast persistence is quite another yet. Sure the NINO3.4 July 2020 temps forecast could be a sign, but so could my mother's aching joints right now. To be honest, outside of a significant NINO or NINA event either way I think there are other global or regional inhibiting or influencing factors that play a larger role in the general season to season variability of storm tracks, overall storm intensities, and potential impact to land area's. Not suggesting that ENSO isn't a factor. Strong ENSO events are. Just sayin' that I believe the focus is over-emphasized and less dramatic ENSO shifts seem muted by a range of other Western Hemispheric variables. Just as strong upper level wind shear may be disruptive for lower latitude tropical cyclone development, this doesn't preclude storms from forming outside of the MDR and potentially posing a major risk to particular regions of the W. Atlantic basin. Similarly if speaking to seasonal risk of potential hurricane impact to any one given area, then shouldn't greater focus be drawn toward more regional conditions seemingly suppressing or enhancing development (i.e. anomalously high or lower surface pressures impacting the ITCZ, SAL outbreaks, regional mid-level cap/inversions, etc) but especially evolving & newly establishing Spring and early Summer steering influences? High atmospheric instability, generally low surface pressures, and above ave. Atlantic SST's might suggest an increase of Atlantic tropical activity but there could be quite a range in overall impact if most tracks were to recurve east of 60W, or storms spinning up further west yet quickly moving inland, or perhaps a larger number of "Caribbean Cruisers".

One example of a La Nina occurred during 1988/89 and I think both year's each year had 11 named storms. Not such an impressive number for a La Nina event. 1995 was another La Nina year but this one had 19 named storms. Luckily most of the season's storms recurved well east of the CONUS or remained in the Southern GOM. Still, Opal could've been a disaster for the N. Gulf coast if not for weakening, Marilyn and Luis presented a big scare for the N.E. Caribbean, Felix threatened the Mid-Atlantic, and Roxanne hard hit Yucatan. Then look at 2017 and 2019. Both years had comparative activity to 1995, right? Were 2017 or 2019 El Nino or La Nina years? 2017 had 17 named storms. Whether or not you agree that there were 17 named storms, or argue there were only 11 (minus Arlene, Cindy, Don, Emily, Philippe, and Rina), how did that years' "ENSO-state" predict so many (or so few) tropical cyclones? More importantly, what ENSO predictor might have even implied risk for a Harvey or Irma? Same question for last year. Was 2019 an El Nino year or not? I've heard debate for either case. Does it matter? 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin (or was it only 9 if you throw out Sebastian, Rebekah, Olga, Nestor, Melissa, Karen, Erin, Chantal, & Andrea). To me it seemed like overall conditions impacting the W. Atlantic were more "El Nino'ish" yet the 18 named storms by NHC might suggest a La Nina type year if one didn't know better. Regardless, exactly how did last years' ENSO-state possibly tip us off that a Dorian would come along?

It is well understood and accepted that ENSO conditions cause a varying degree of extreme or enhanced weather conditions on a global scale. On the other hand, I think most people simplistically attach ENSO to either a generally active or inactive Atlantic hurricane season. I think this thinking is often incorrect but far more importantly, is SO myopic when speaking in terms of risk.

[CyclonicFury]

Every year, before we cross what we all know is the barrier between predictions with NO SKILL and predictions with some skill, we go through this. I'm reading with great interest, but at this point I still feel like it's just a wild guess.

Totally agree. To me, ENSO trends suggest that the upcoming Atlantic Season will definitively fall somewhere in between "grossly over-active" and "zero activity altogether" LOL. Hindsight analysis suggests that I have a near 100% of being accurate here

Way I see it is, long range ENSO trends are one thing, multi-model continuity is another, and forecast persistence is quite another yet. Sure the NINO3.4 July 2020 temps forecast could be a sign, but so could my mother's aching joints right now. To be honest, outside of a significant NINO or NINA event either way I think there are other global or regional inhibiting or influencing factors that play a larger role in the general season to season variability of storm tracks, overall storm intensities, and potential impact to land area's. Not suggesting that ENSO isn't a factor. Strong ENSO events are. Just sayin' that I believe the focus is over-emphasized and less dramatic ENSO shifts seem muted by a range of other Western Hemispheric variables. Just as strong upper level wind shear may be disruptive for lower latitude tropical cyclone development, this doesn't preclude storms from forming outside of the MDR and potentially posing a major risk to particular regions of the W. Atlantic basin. Similarly if speaking to seasonal risk of potential hurricane impact to any one given area, then shouldn't greater focus be drawn toward more regional conditions seemingly suppressing or enhancing development (i.e. anomalously high or lower surface pressures impacting the ITCZ, SAL outbreaks, regional mid-level cap/inversions, etc) but especially evolving & newly establishing Spring and early Summer steering influences? High atmospheric instability, generally low surface pressures, and above ave. Atlantic SST's might suggest an increase of Atlantic tropical activity but there could be quite a range in overall impact if most tracks were to recurve east of 60W, or storms spinning up further west yet quickly moving inland, or perhaps a larger number of "Caribbean Cruisers".

One example of a La Nina occurred during 1988/89 and I think both year's each year had 11 named storms. Not such an impressive number for a La Nina event. 1995 was another La Nina year but this one had 19 named storms. Luckily most of the season's storms recurved well east of the CONUS or remained in the Southern GOM. Still, Opal could've been a disaster for the N. Gulf coast if not for weakening, Marilyn and Luis presented a big scare for the N.E. Caribbean, Felix threatened the Mid-Atlantic, and Roxanne hard hit Yucatan. Then look at 2017 and 2019. Both years had comparative activity to 1995, right? Were 2017 or 2019 El Nino or La Nina years? 2017 had 17 named storms. Whether or not you agree that there were 17 named storms, or argue there were only 11 (minus Arlene, Cindy, Don, Emily, Philippe, and Rina), how did that years' "ENSO-state" predict so many (or so few) tropical cyclones? More importantly, what ENSO predictor might have even implied risk for a Harvey or Irma? Same question for last year. Was 2019 an El Nino year or not? I've heard debate for either case. Does it matter? 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin (or was it only 9 if you throw out Sebastian, Rebekah, Olga, Nestor, Melissa, Karen, Erin, Chantal, & Andrea). To me it seemed like overall conditions impacting the W. Atlantic were more "El Nino'ish" yet the 18 named storms by NHC might suggest a La Nina type year if one didn't know better. Regardless, exactly how did last years' ENSO-state possibly tip us off that a Dorian would come along?

It is well understood and accepted that ENSO conditions cause a varying degree of extreme or enhanced weather conditions on a global scale. On the other hand, I think most people simplistically attach ENSO to either a generally active or inactive Atlantic hurricane season. I think this thinking is often incorrect but far more importantly, is SO myopic when speaking in terms of risk.

Why would you "throw out" all the TCs you mentioned? Pretty much all of them had a well-defined circulation and persistent deep conviction. ACE was above average in both years you mentioned, extremely so in 2017.

[stormlover2013]

like I keep saying we won't be having a el nino this year during hurricane season

[Monsoonjr99]

Can't be sure this early if the Euro is actually indicating something about ENSO or if the upgrades last year fixed the bias.

Anyway, there's still the SPB to go through, so any prediction at this point should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Chris90]

Would one of our more knowledgeable members be so kind as to breakdown the MJO and its relationship with ENSO in fairly simple terms? I ask this fully aware that it is a complex relationship, so that isn't the easiest task, but with all this talk as we watch the evolution towards possibly a cooler ENSO state for Northern Hemisphere summer, could someone maybe just give me a general idea of what phases are best for Nino growth and what phases are most destructive to Ninos and instead favor Nina development? I've read some online literature about the relationship between ENSO and the MJO, so I know some general info about how it enhances/suppresses convection and affects wind activity, I guess the general question I want answered is amplification of the MJO in what phases benefits Nino growth, and amplification in what phases benefits Nina growth the most? I know it's more complex than that, but if I just have a general idea I'll keep reading some other articles and keep learning as I go and as I continue to watch ENSO evolution.

Thanks in advance for any help and info you can provide.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1236077548502691841

[NotSparta]

Would one of our more knowledgeable members be so kind as to breakdown the MJO and its relationship with ENSO in fairly simple terms? I ask this fully aware that it is a complex relationship, so that isn't the easiest task, but with all this talk as we watch the evolution towards possibly a cooler ENSO state for Northern Hemisphere summer, could someone maybe just give me a general idea of what phases are best for Nino growth and what phases are most destructive to Ninos and instead favor Nina development? I've read some online literature about the relationship between ENSO and the MJO, so I know some general info about how it enhances/suppresses convection and affects wind activity, I guess the general question I want answered is amplification of the MJO in what phases benefits Nino growth, and amplification in what phases benefits Nina growth the most? I know it's more complex than that, but if I just have a general idea I'll keep reading some other articles and keep learning as I go and as I continue to watch ENSO evolution.

Thanks in advance for any help and info you can provide.

The RMM MJO can be a bit misleading, but generally when there's MJO in phases 6-8 it helps El Niño. Also, looking at MJO maps, when you have amplification of convection in areas where El Niño enhances convection, it can produce an El Niño like effect, and pushes things in the direction of El Niño

[Kingarabian]

Some pretty good upwelling going on over at Nino 3.

GFS has strong trades retrograding over the dateline and the entire central Pacific: