ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

http://i59.tinypic.com/335a42s.gif

In this latest update shows increasing risk for el nino before next year?

2 year el nino

The last thing you want to do is go by the Euro's Enso long range forecast. If the Euro would been correct back in April we would had been dealing a Super Strong El Nino by now, lol.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center update of 8/25/14 has Nino 3.4 up to +0.3C and that is way up from the 0.0C of last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

I knew it was going to warm but wasn't expecting more than 0.1+-. Surprising

[WeatherGuesser]

No idea what that means.

[weatherdude1108]

Me neither. Nino may come sooner? Does the atmosphere need to teleconnect with the warming to be more Nino-efficient?

[Kingarabian]

Been awhile since an update. After spending July below 0C the upper ocean heat anoms are rising back to values needed for any kind of El Nino (new pool). SOI has finally linked and looks mostly negative for quite some time. Still waiting for Nino 3.4 to respond.

You think Nino 3.4 is finally responding after this weeks update?

[somethingfunny]

I'm glad to see this El Nino forecast is trending towards verification.

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since an update. After spending July below 0C the upper ocean heat anoms are rising back to values needed for any kind of El Nino (new pool). SOI has finally linked and looks mostly negative for quite some time. Still waiting for Nino 3.4 to respond.

You think Nino 3.4 is finally responding after this weeks update?

Probably, sea surface heights are rising in the 3.4 region. Usually wherever heights rises is where you see the most warming to follow. Opposite for lower heights.

[Ntxw]

The noisy SOI has been negative most of August except for the first two days. Maybe Larry can pitch in some data for Aug correlation to ENSO and what Sept may show.

[Hammy]

The SOI has now been consistently negative (without any sharp rising trends) longer than it has now since well before the busted 2012 El Nino--could this be a strong indicator that we're now trending towards the actual event at this point?

[Ntxw]

Quick update on ENSO, due to holiday there's no official update from CPC. But the weekly nino indexes still do which shows 0.4C at nino 3.4, probably will end up so tomorrow.

Subsurface looks decent, OHC is above Nino threshold again, sea surface heights, and SOI (August should come in around -10 officially) all are trending well. What happens the next few months can also give hints to 2015, the stronger the Nino the better the odds are of a greater Nina. Weaker Nino's are mixed some go to weak Nina's some stay neutral, some even go to another Nino. But the big Nino's more times than not go to Ninas.

For a very active 2015 Atlantic season, in theory, would be looking for a moderate/strong Nino that overturns into Nina. Seasons like these often are big ACE producers like in 1995, 1998, and 2010

[cycloneye]

The Climate Prediction Center update of 9/2/14 has Nino 3.4 warming up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI continues well in the negative phase and in fact is crashing at this time. This is one factor that favors El Nino coming soon..Let's see how things evolve in the next 1-3 months as that new warm pool looks solid.

[asd123]

30 day SOI continues well in the negative phase and in fact is crashing at this time. This is one factor that favors El Nino coming soon..Let's see how things evolve in the next 1-3 months as that new warm pool looks solid.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/2la9bpg.jpg

Yeah, el nino seems to be materializing like you hinted, consistently low soi, warm pool strengthening and surfacing (double warm pool in fact), and possibly other indices I'm not aware of.

[Kingarabian]

How's the IOD?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It would take time for me to post the pic. So it will be in a post instead

Umm,I have recently noticed that in the TAO buoys, the former or old warm pool seems to be bursting or getting larger alongside the newly formed and expanding warm pool. So, could the El Niño develop faster as the pools surface but at the same time expand???

[WeatherGuesser]

Sooooo, Winter ..... warmer? less cold? no effect?

[euro6208]

Latest and impressive expanding warming moving east...

[SeGaBob]

I'm really hoping this el nino will favor better chances of snow in the Southeastern US... I've only seen snow once in my life and that was 2010. (I've seen plenty of ice storms though)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center September update / El Nino chance at 60%-65% by Fall thru Winter / Weak El Nino expected

If that new warm pool grows close to the last one,El Nino may grow to Moderate IMO.



Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

During August 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices warmed during the month with values of +0.5oC in Niño-4, +0.4oC in Niño-3.4, +0.4oC in Niño-3, and +0.8oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) also increased during the month (Fig. 3) as above-average subsurface temperatures developed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). This warming is associated with the downwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave triggered in July by low-level westerly wind anomalies. Westerly wind anomalies continued in the central and eastern part of the basin early in August, but weakened by the end of the month. Enhanced easterly upper-level wind anomalies have prevailed during much of the month, and the Southern Oscillation Index has been negative. However, convective cloudiness remained generally near average over most of the region, except for below average cloudiness observed across the central and western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern and near-average SSTs in the central Pacific indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html