ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

What would you expect Nino 3.4 to look like at next week's update?

3.4 has been stubborn. I don't think it's going to deviate much, anything within -0.1C to 0.1C

[dexterlabio]

Also being stubborn is the MJO lurking over the Western Indian Ocean without any progression. The current position of this active phase favors cooling of waters over the Pacific, isn't it?

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... qQ.twitter

Nice read about why we should still get an El Nino.

[JDawg512]

El Nino weekly update from StormSurf. As I stated before very informative.

http://youtu.be/wD43vq9i5Lw

[Ntxw]

Not much change to report today from the weekly indices. 3.4 unchanged at 0C. Other regions remain mostly the same or a small bump.

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 unchanged at 0.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

3-4C is now showing up in the intensifying warm pool under the central Pacific. SOI seems to be coupling with August likely reaching Nino threshold for 30 day once done.

[cycloneye]

The sub-surface waters are warming again as the new warm pool located in the WestCentral Pacific expands to the east. This may be the real trigger for El Nino to get going in the coming 2-3 months. Saved loop.

[Hammy]

It looks like there is still a pool of cooler water in front of the warm pool, so would it be correct to assume surface waters may cool another degree or two before the real warming begins?

[Kingarabian]

That new warm pool is interesting no doubt; looks to be just in time for fall. Who knows.

[Ntxw]

It looks like there is still a pool of cooler water in front of the warm pool, so would it be correct to assume surface waters may cool another degree or two before the real warming begins?

I think it has already cooled about as much as it can go, at least that's what most models have shown short term. Weak westerlies anomalies in the eastern side of the Pacific should prevent any significant cooling at the surface for awhile.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think a moderate El Niño would occur early NEXT year. I guess CFSv2 is too bullish and biased on rapid warming. The next warm pool is already here, and it is growing and warming fairly rapidly due to the downwelling phase of the KW; but I am not looking for a rapid warming within the next 2 months due to the trades near normal and insufficient WWB despite the activity. Although, the SOI has been consistently negative for more than a month, and may bear similarities with March-April that it went down during the downwelling except that currently it is more sustained that the latter. Maybe some gradual warming, then if more signals come-that is the right time for rapid warming.

And one thing, if there were to be already an El Niño, could this El Niño end much later than initially predicted?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

On a side note, that warm pool looks impressive.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI is right now at El Nino threshold below -8. Is a good sign for El Nino coming to have this in negative for the past month.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Negative for more than one month, and SOI has been steadily and consistently negative which is different from the SOI tanking last March.

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since an update. After spending July below 0C the upper ocean heat anoms are rising back to values needed for any kind of El Nino (new pool). SOI has finally linked and looks mostly negative for quite some time. Still waiting for Nino 3.4 to respond.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on Levi's site, Nino regions appear to be slowly warming.

[euro6208]

In this latest update shows increasing risk for el nino before next year?

2 year el nino

[Ptarmigan]

In this latest update shows increasing risk for el nino before next year?

2 year el nino

A multi-year El Nino would be a rarity, but not unheard of.

[euro6208]

Damn that warm pool sure is fast...It's already in nino 1.2!