ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

@wxman57,

I found the April forecast for Enso 3.4 on the public free site. Is this what you were referring to in yout post?




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[NDG]

The fact that it has taken 4 or more years for El Niño to return after a Super El Niño event is what this year has to go against, but I guess there’s always a first time.

[NotSparta]

I've found that the Euro has a high bias for ENSO, and isn't really that reliable, as it is for shorter-term events.

[Dean_175]

The fact that it has taken 4 or more years for El Niño to return after a Super El Niño event is what this year has to go against, but I guess there’s always a first time.

1965 was a borderline "super" El Nino. Followed by El Nino in 1968.

Depending on how you want to define it, here have been between 3 and 5 "super" El Nino events recorded since reliable records began. Not large enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

[NDG]

The fact that it has taken 4 or more years for El Niño to return after a Super El Niño event is what this year has to go against, but I guess there’s always a first time.

1965 was a borderline "super" El Nino. Followed by El Nino in 1968.

Depending on how you want to define it, here have been between 3 and 5 "super" El Nino events recorded since reliable records began. Not large enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

The years following the 1965 El Nino were very strange, never going into La Nina. Or should I say the decade during the 1960s was strange enough with the fact that there was only one La Nina episode with four El Nino episodes.
But even if you put the 1965 El Nino into the equation the average is still 4 years that El Nino takes to return. But I agree, there are not that many recorded Super El Nino episodes during the past 60-70 years to say for sure.

[cycloneye]

The March update of PDO index is down to negative and it hasn't been that way since January 2014. Is at -0.05.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[StruThiO]

Super interesting

[NotSparta]

Another wrench thrown into predicting the hurricane season it looks like

[NDG]

The March update of PDO index is down to negative and it hasn't been that way since January 2014. Is at -0.05.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Many didn't see that one coming, but it makes sense with that warm pool east of Japan and cooler coastal waters off of Alaska & Canada.

[NotSparta]

I'm very much an amateur. I looked around, but didn't find anything. What does this mean tropically, if the -PDO strengthens and persists?

[Kingarabian]

Well the historic +PDO regime could finally be over.

[NotSparta]

Well the +PDO regime could be finally over.

Watch it jump positive for April lol

[Kingarabian]

Well the +PDO regime could be finally over.

Watch it jump positive for April lol

In previous +PDO regimes, you can find some negative months. Going to take another 5 months to confirm it.

[cycloneye]

@BretWaltsWx
Going to be challenging to degrade Nina with these easterly wind bursts forecasted to continue over the next few weeks.



 https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/984075242963460096

[Alyono]

my earlier el niño call is clearly going to bust now. Simply far too much cool water. Negative PDO is not helping matter at all

[Alyono]

The March update of PDO index is down to negative and it hasn't been that way since January 2014. Is at -0.05.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Many didn't see that one coming, but it makes sense with that warm pool east of Japan and cooler coastal waters off of Alaska & Canada.

I see something else. Many of the Atlantic - anomalies are going away

[Kingarabian]

@BretWaltsWx
Going to be challenging to degrade Nina with these easterly wind bursts forecasted to continue over the next few weeks.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/9M1zALz.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/984075242963460096[tweet]

It's pretty weird right now. Lots of discrepancies with the models 850mb wind forecasts at the moment. CFS shows westerly winds anomalies/non existent trades for most of the central/eastern Pacific for the next week or so. GFS is also backing off its trade burst forecast that I posted a few days ago. At the same time, real time wind analysis from CDAS shows weakened trades continuing to blow in the central Pacific, and mostly moderate to strong westerly anomalies in the eastern Pacific.

[Kingarabian]

my earlier el niño call is clearly going to bust now. Simply far too much cool water. Negative PDO is not helping matter at all

While the odds for an El Nino are hard to figure out right now, it's going to be hard to tell if an El Nino is favored or not solely on the of the state of the PDO. PDO needs to come in negative for a few more tri-monthlies before the positive regime is considered over and we can declare it unconducive for an El Nino.

There's far more warm anomalies at the sub surface. In fact the warm subsurface pool is strong enough and large enough to buy time until June for a WWB event.

[cycloneye]

So after these events I guess CPC will not issue El Niño watch in the Diagnostic update at 9:00 AM EDT.

[StruThiO]

I see something else. Many of the Atlantic - anomalies are going away

Well that's discomforting to read