ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

When I look at the TAO subsurface anomalies, at one day the warm pool is pushing up the other day it goes down.

ENSO is a gradual process. It's best not to drive yourself crazy through daily changes. It has a lot of "noise".

Yes, but over the past couple of weeks and months ENSO el Nino warming has had little to no progress. I don't know what the oceans are up to, but something doesn't seem to be clicking.

We've come a long way from the negative anomalies we saw in late July. Lack of WWB's are hurting somewhat. MJO and the annual surge of typhoons in the WPAC should help though in about 3 weeks or so.

[Ntxw]

Per the weekly indices update, Nino 3.4 remains stubborn and drops to 0.3C. The only region that warmed was 1+2 up to 1.1C

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the 10/6/14 update by CPC where it has Nino 3.4 continuing to cool down slightly from the +0.5C that was two weeks ago to +0.3C this week. Last week it was at +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Daily's of ENSO are warming again. The waters off Darwin are quickly cooling, perhaps another SOI tank in the future after a few more positive upticks? Cue Larry with euro

[asd123]

Daily's of ENSO are warming again. The waters off Darwin are quickly cooling, perhaps another SOI tank in the future after a few more positive upticks? Cue Larry with euro

Yeah, Larry hasn't given his SOI forecast lately (surprisingly accurate imo) Do the weather models have an SOI parameter or is he using surface pressure calculations?

My thoughts on ENSO: That darn warm pool won't budge to the surface; it creeps, then recedes (over weeks and weeks). I'm not talking about daily oscillations. I have watched that SSTA TAO map and over numerous weeks no real, net gain of that warm pool. SOI creeping up. (SOI has been negative in the past, only for a relatively short time). But most importantly note the lack of warm pool gain. How are other El Nino indicating indices doing?

Personally, I think that if the warm pool does not get its act together in the next month, we can kiss el nino goodbye for winter effects. Who knows, one might get going in December or January, but we probably would not feel the effects of that on the winter weather.

[Yellow Evan]

Daily's of ENSO are warming again. The waters off Darwin are quickly cooling, perhaps another SOI tank in the future after a few more positive upticks? Cue Larry with euro

Yeah, Larry hasn't given his SOI forecast lately (surprisingly accurate imo) Do the weather models have an SOI parameter or is he using surface pressure calculations?

My thoughts on ENSO: That darn warm pool won't budge to the surface; it creeps, then recedes (over weeks and weeks). I'm not talking about daily oscillations. I have watched that SSTA TAO map and over numerous weeks no real, net gain of that warm pool. SOI creeping up. (SOI has been negative in the past, only for a relatively short time). But most importantly note the lack of warm pool gain. How are other El Nino indicating indices doing?

Personally, I think that if the warm pool does not get its act together in the next month, we can kiss el nino goodbye for winter effects. Who knows, one might get going in December or January, but we probably would not feel the effects of that on the winter weather.

I partially agree. I will say that from July to September, we had an epic -SOI string. Regarding the warm pool, you're correct for the most part, just pointing out that warm pools tend to fade during the summer and come back in the spring and fall. The real problem is the lack of WWB's.

As for you second comment, El Nino-like effects are likely this winter. The atmosphere has responded in an El Nino-like matter. It's the SST's that are lagging.

[Hammy]

Something I've been wondering, is that they have increased the 30 year average for the water temps ever so slightly, so I'm wondering if it will take a slightly smaller anomaly, even not officially being considered El Nino, to create similar conditions given the slightly warmer average.

[gigabite]

Neutral, but El Niño WATCH remains
Issued on Tuesday 7 October 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Niño. However, given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible during the last quarter of 2014.
Atmospheric indicators of El Niño have remained neutral over recent months. Tropical cloud patterns and trade winds have only had brief periods with El Niño-like values since May. Despite a recent drop into El Niño territory, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to neutral values over the past fortnight.
Model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s El Niño WATCH remains in place, indicating double the normal chance (50%) of an El Niño over the coming months.
While still falling short of El Niño thresholds, the tropical Pacific Ocean remains warmer than average. When combined with recent cool water to the north of Australia, conditions favour below-average rainfall over much of Australia for the remainder of 2014.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral recently after being consistently negative since June. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate neutral conditions are very likely to remain during the last quarter of 2014

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[gigabite]

Something I've been wondering, is that they have increased the 30 year average for the water temps ever so slightly, so I'm wondering if it will take a slightly smaller anomaly, even not officially being considered El Nino, to create similar conditions given the slightly warmer average.

Because the ESNO is defined as mean seasonal it is easier to hit the el Nino number in the winter. Look at the sea surface temperature plot for the last decade an you will see that the a trend of higher lows for the winter has been setting up the forecast for a breakout number this winter. The thing is it could break out cooler also it is a 50:50 condition at this point.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

[cycloneye]

CPC released the October update and continues to forecast El Nino coming officially in 1 or 2 months and will be weak.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 October 2014


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch



Synopsis: El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were relatively unchanged from the beginning of the month, with values ranging from +0.3oC (Niño-3.4) to +1.1oC (Niño-1+2) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) was also minimal (Fig. 3) due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue to arise. Upper-level winds were also close to average for the month. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, and rainfall was near average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The lack of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

CPC in the weekly update of 10/14/14 has Nino 3.4 up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If the CFSv2 forecast was in reverse..

[Ntxw]

Westerly wind burst (WWB) occuring over the international dateline heading for 3.4. Evidence can be seen with ANA heading towards Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Westerly wind burst (WWB) occuring over the international dateline heading for 3.4. Evidence can be seen with ANA heading towards Hawaii.

Let's see if this new WWB can do the job of warmimg in a good way 3.4 and El Nino can finally be declared officially.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Was Vongfong in any way related to the WWB?

[Ntxw]

Was Vongfong in any way related to the WWB?

Yes, it is likely related as it is the same MJO/CCKW wave that spawned and enhanced by Phanfone and Vongfong. SOI looks to be mostly negative the next week.

Ntxw,what is going on in the past 7-10 days that the SOI is going up (Although still at negative) and the ENSO areas are not as warm with Nino 3.4 falling below the +0.5C?

Think we may see some positive SOI's for a little while, at least as far as I can see. Nothing really major but at the same time we will also lose some -SOI earlier in the month. Perhaps Larry can chime in, he's usually very good at that stuff.

There is a WWB starting in the western Pacific, I don't know yet if it will spread eastward but it's something to watch. Until then some weak easterlies is going on in Nino 3.4 region

[cycloneye]

No big change from the Mid September plume from the ENSO models to the Mid October one as it continues with the Weak El Nino prediction.

[Ntxw]

September PDO rose to +1.08. That makes it 9 consecutive months in the positives. It is almost guaranteed that 2014 will finish as a +PDO year. If we are still in the -PDO regime and not in some kind of a transition or hiatus it would make this one of the lengthiest Calendar readings of +PDO for such a period.

[LarryWx]

They did release a slightly warmer +0.5 for 3.4, up from +0.4. This is tied for the warmest for the summer/fall period. Slowly but surely?

Other regions: Niño 4 warmed the most (0.2) to +0.7. Niño 3 cooled from +0.6 to +0.5.
Niño 1+2 warmed from +0.6 to +0.7.

So, for the first time since late June, all regions are at least touching Niño territory.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 10/20/14 has Nino 3.4 up to +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf