ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

^^ Anything is possible, but I don't think it is likely. 1984-1985 is a potential analog for what you would be talking about (with La Nina not developing this year). A full La Nina failed to develop in 1983- and cool neutral transitioned into a La Nina in 1984. That La Nina ended up being weak. Similar with 1967-68. There has never been a "very strong" La Nina - with ONI reaching -2.0C , the closest was in 1973 (during a cool PDO era). I think that the PDO would have to become at least somewhat negative for that to occur anytime soon.

There is also somewhat of an asymmetry in the behavior of El Nino vs La Nina. La Ninas often reoccur multiple years in a row- and if a La Nina is going to become strong eventually, it usually begins the year following an El Nino- not cool neutral.

That makes sense. Although they are opposite of each other, their formations appear to be vastly different.

[cycloneye]

During the past month, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with near-to-below average SSTs recently emerging in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest Niño region indices also reflect this decline, with the steepest decreases occurring in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). The surface cooling was largely driven by the expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures, which extended to the surface in the eastern Pacific (Figs. 3 and 4). While oceanic anomalies are clearly trending toward ENSO-neutral, many atmospheric anomalies were still consistent with El Niño, such as the negative equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation indices. Upper-level easterly winds persisted over the central and eastern Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific and was suppressed north of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño and a trend toward ENSO-neutral conditons.

Most models predict the end of El Niño and a brief period of ENSO-neutral by early Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). The model consensus then calls for increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region as the summer and fall progress. However, there is clear uncertainty over the timing and intensity of a potential La Niña (3-month Niño-3.4 SST less than or equal to -0.5°C). The forecaster consensus favors La Niña onset during the summer, mainly weighting the dynamical models (such as NCEP CFSv2) and observed trends toward cooler-than-average conditions. Overall, La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like ENSO might go below el nino values next update as the ENSO 3\4 has been dropping quite a bit the last day or 2 to .6 and dropping rapidly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[stormwise]

[Ntxw]

Lots more stronger than normal trades now in the forecast. La Nina cometh.

[Hurricaneman]

If yo go by what CDAS SSTAs say on tropical tidbits this El Nino is no more and we are now neutral

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[OURAGAN]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... nino34.png

[OURAGAN]

[NDG]

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
SST reveals this el nino (right) falling apart much faster than 1998 (left) overall. The analysis doesnt lie

[cycloneye]

The latest ECMWF May forecast has Neutral/Weak La Nina conditions by September.Graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Was 2005 a Neutral or La Nina? Also, what are some of the environmental factors that are different between this up and coming season and that year?

[Ntxw]

Was 2005 a Neutral or La Nina? Also, what are some of the environmental factors that are different between this up and coming season and that year?

2005 was cold neutral. ERSSTv3 had 2005 as weak Nina. 2005 was the pinnacle of the active back to back 2004/2005 seasons. 2001 and 2003 were active ACE wise as well. 2002 had notable storms and somewhat active for an El Nino. That period between 1998-2005 was very active leading up to the peak in 05. The Atlantic had more to do with it most likely than influences from the Pacific.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Was 2005 a Neutral or La Nina? Also, what are some of the environmental factors that are different between this up and coming season and that year?

2005 was cold neutral. ERSSTv3 had 2005 as weak Nina. 2005 was the pinnacle of the active back to back 2004/2005 seasons. 2001 and 2003 were active ACE wise as well. 2002 had notable storms and somewhat active for an El Nino. That period between 1998-2005 was very active leading up to the peak in on 05. The Atlantic had more to do with it most likely than influences from the Pacific.

Okay thanks for the information. I seen some similarities with this season and 2005 but I was sure there were other factors that would probably lower totals quite a bit. That is not a forecast because I am not a MET but most places are predicting normal to a little above normal in terms of activity. Though looking at the predictions by Storm2k members back in 2005 it looks almost the same as well. Their numbers were quite lower than what actually happened on the whole. Good thing is our technology has improved quite a bit since 2005.

[NDG]

The latest ECMWF May forecast has Neutral/Weak La Nina conditions by September.Graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

IMO, it sounds like Dr P Klotzbach is just being biased trying to hang on to his conservative hurricane forecast, what he does not mentions is that the Euro now only has 5 of its members showing a warm neutral ENSO for September, down from 10 of its emseble members on last month's forecast and down from at least 13 members showing that two months ago.
Even a better reasoning is that it now shows a La Nina surfacing by Jun/July, which a 2-3 month forecast have much higher chances of panning out than a 4 month forecast from now.
So I go by the trends which tells me that there will be at least a weak La Nina in place in September.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
As models get closer to a set period they get better. Euro Nina for summer stronger now ( bottom) than March (top)

[Ntxw]

Down to 0.6C this week

[cycloneye]

CPC text of the 5/16/16 update that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.6C so officially ENSO is at el Nino status despite the data from CDAS that shows Neutral conditions.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[WPBWeather]

The latest ECMWF May forecast has Neutral/Weak La Nina conditions by September.Graphic from Dr Phil Klotzbach.

IMO, it sounds like Dr P Klotzbach is just being biased trying to hang on to his conservative hurricane forecast, what he does not mentions is that the Euro now only has 5 of its members showing a warm neutral ENSO for September, down from 10 of its emseble members on last month's forecast and down from at least 13 members showing that two months ago.
Even a better reasoning is that it now shows a La Nina surfacing by Jun/July, which a 2-3 month forecast have much higher chances of panning out than a 4 month forecast from now.
So I go by the trends which tells me that there will be at least a weak La Nina in place in September.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You may be correct. I think Phil K. was overreaching a bit with his ice melt, lower salinity ideas lowering hurricane numbers in the ATL. But we shall see.

[Alyono]

Klotzbach is looking at far more than equatorial Pacific waters.

He's considering ALL of the data

[Kingarabian]

PDO for April comes in stronger @ +2.62.