ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Just nitpicking a bit, 2004 was actually active because of the El Nino, it was a Modoki meaning unfavorable EPAC and favorable Atlantic

I wouldn't quite follow through with this statement. 2004 I'd say was active because the El Nino was out of the way, too weak and too far away to penetrate the Atlantic. The period from 1998-2005 the Atlantic was in a bustling background state anyway. Even during the El Nino's of that period (2002 and 2004) were relatively active anyhow.

[Alyono]

Just nitpicking a bit, 2004 was actually active because of the El Nino, it was a Modoki meaning unfavorable EPAC and favorable Atlantic

I wouldn't quite follow through with this statement. 2004 I'd say was active because the El Nino was out of the way, too weak and too far away to penetrate the Atlantic. The period from 1998-2005 the Atlantic was in a bustling background state anyway. Even during the El Nino's of that period (2002 and 2004) were relatively active anyhow.

The Atlantic largely shut down in late September of 2004, consistent with other el niños. Matthew likely would have been much more intense that year had the el niño not sheared it badly

[Ntxw]

Just nitpicking a bit, 2004 was actually active because of the El Nino, it was a Modoki meaning unfavorable EPAC and favorable Atlantic

I wouldn't quite follow through with this statement. 2004 I'd say was active because the El Nino was out of the way, too weak and too far away to penetrate the Atlantic. The period from 1998-2005 the Atlantic was in a bustling background state anyway. Even during the El Nino's of that period (2002 and 2004) were relatively active anyhow.

The Atlantic largely shut down in late September of 2004, consistent with other el niños. Matthew likely would have been much more intense that year had the el niño not sheared it badly

Yes, it was one of the latest Ninos to get going both ocean and atmosphere

[Kingarabian]

The Euro does have westerly component west of the dateline. It's just not as strong as the GFS. But really you don't need the models to tell you that westerly winds are coming from the IO. The natural progression of the MJO is going to pass through the latter half of this month. WWBs are simply not the only result of TC activity.

the question to ask is will it be strong enough, or east enough to make a difference

Your post from early March was spot on in regards to the natural progression of the MJO and its ability to trigger WWB's. We're seeing a substantial WWB despite the positive SOI.

[WeatherEmperor]

Perhaps the CFS is coming around to the El Nino solution afterall? Lots of members going to warm territory near peak season whereas before it didnt have any.


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[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/975309753168646144

[Kingarabian]

Here's a look at the downwelling Kelvin wave in March:



The data from the CPC used in their graphics show the sub surface much clearer and better but the graphic has been broken for the last 2 frames.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the best position at this point is to stay neutral, let the models come to a consensus, eventually (hopefully).
Even JB is laying low so far, after busting big time last year.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 9414972416
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 4158328832

With the Euro forecasting warm neutral to weak El Niño and the CFS forecasting cool neutral I’d say go with dead on neutral conditions or warm neutral conditions.

[StruThiO]

At -0.7C this week

[Alyono]

again,

dynamical ENSO models are total trash. Absolutely no skill. Stick with the statistical and CLIPER models

[cycloneye]

They fixed the glitch.

[cycloneye]

At -0.7C this week

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

New update has dynamical models less enthused on El Nino compared to last month for ASO period.

[StruThiO]

Yeah, according to the graphic Upper ocean heat anoms are already more positive than they ever were last year.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, according to the graphic Upper ocean heat anoms are already more positive than they ever were last year.

That's pretty big and it goes to show how close things are.

[Kingarabian]

They fixed the glitch.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/aOZqZWV.gif[img]

That's a lot better. That's a very serious and large warm pool. The snapshot was also taken before the current WWB event. Next sub-surface frame will be interesting to say the least...

[Kingarabian]

Here's some comparisons of the current subsurface and prior notable Nino/borderline Nino years:


2009 - Moderate El Nino:


2012 - Failed Nino:


2014 - Weak Nino:

[Ntxw]

Besides the cooler air over North America, ENSO implications perhaps if real?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/976810701284167680

[NotSparta]

Besides the cooler air over North America, ENSO implications perhaps if real?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/976810701284167680

Could jumpstart a WWB to kill off or severely weaken Niña

[Kingarabian]

Besides the cooler air over North America, ENSO implications perhaps if real?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/976810701284167680

Could jumpstart a WWB to kill off or severely weaken Niña

That potential WWB would surely act as a reinforcement if this present WWB doesn't finish the job.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/976465350266179584




The January downwelling Kelvin Wave now looks inferior to the present downwelling Kelvin Wave due to the ongoing WWB -- but I would like to see anomalies a bit further east and over the dateline.



A WWB can trigger TC's, so that's likely why the EPS is bullish on a WPAC TC. We're seeing a chain reaction here.