ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Yikes! In only 6 hours 06z to 12z, Nino 3.4 rose from +0.6C to +0.7C

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if CDAS is broken again.

[Ntxw]

Probably overzealous by the satellites. Buoys are nowhere near that warm at least for the 5 day averages. No El Nino look at the subsurface either at this time

[Hurricaneman]

The Enso could drop once the MJO wave leaves the area so that will also be something to keep an eye on

[cycloneye]

The seven day change map shows the warming at Nino 3.4 reflected.The question is if is for real or there is something wrong with CDAS.

[Ntxw]

-51 SOI...

[WeatherEmperor]

-51 SOI...

Wow thats crazy lol


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[gatorcane]

The seven day change map shows the warming at Nino 3.4 reflected.The question is if is for real or there is something wrong with CDAS.

http://i.imgur.com/57rxj7E.png

Right now that looks very Modoki-like (meaning not much impact on limiting Atlantic hurricane activity, e.g. 2004) but things are early-on so we'll see if the warmth spreads eastward in the EPAC which would be a limiting factor for the Atlantic Hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

2004 apex was more because of the favorability of the Atlantic and the fact that the Nino was one of the weakest on record limiting impacts. Far too early to tell right now.

[Ntxw]

Trades are also about to kick in near the dateline, that should slow or put a stop to the daily warming in the short term

[Yellow Evan]

Is it me or is the WPAC a lot cooler than it was in early 2015 near the dateline?

[Ntxw]

Is it me or is the WPAC a lot cooler than it was in early 2015 near the dateline?

It is, in part because we are coming out of a weak La Nina as the cooler waters migrate west. 2015 was coming out of weak El Nino with warm dateline waters

[Kingarabian]

Probably overzealous by the satellites. Buoys are nowhere near that warm at least for the 5 day averages. No El Nino look at the subsurface either at this time

[img]//http://i63.tinypic.com/309jb5g.png[/img]

It's interesting because for the state of ENSO, it's 50% dependent on the subsurface (a warm or cool pool forming and maintaining itself) and 50% atmosphere.

However in 2014 we had a very nice warm pool but its warmth could not reach the surface due to the atmosphere not responding. 2016 was the same thing, only it was the opposite in terms of it being a cool pool and a La-Nina trying to form and the atmosphere not responding.

So is it easier to get the subsurface to respond going to getting the atmosphere to respond? What I see happening now is the opposite of 2014 and 2016, and that the atmosphere is ready to get a El-Nino going and we're just waiting on a warm pool to form. Just my thoughts.

[Ntxw]

So is it easier to get the subsurface to respond going to getting the atmosphere to respond? What I see happening now is the opposite of 2014 and 2016, and that the atmosphere is ready to get a El-Nino going and we're just waiting on a warm pool to form. Just my thoughts.

2014 was hindered by the southern hemisphere, SOI that year was never great. To get a good event both Subsurface and Atmosphere must to work together. When one or the other isn't you tend to take a step forward and two steps back. There is a warm pool 1-2C in the far WPAC, need several good WWB's to push it eastward and those 1-2C above normal converts to 3-4C the further east it travels with climatology. This huge MJO event likely caused the quick flurry to El Nino but the overall state is still relatively neutral.

CFSv2 predicts better WWB's come Spring. But any short term warming is likely the atmosphere simply being in an "El Nino" like state possibly MJO influenced.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

But any short term warming is likely the atmosphere simply being in an "El Nino" like state possibly MJO influenced.

But these current rise's are sst temps to 150m?.

[Ntxw]

But any short term warming is likely the atmosphere simply being in an "El Nino" like state possibly MJO influenced.

But these current rise's are sst temps to 150m?.

What do you mean? Waters below Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 are well below normal at 150m. The warmth is running about 50m and to the surface

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.esr.org/enso_index.html
Bottom line it appears to me and of course i may be dead wrong. These changes are in line with what the models are showing a return to nino in a few months. There was a healthy K/W last month. Is there any reason to believe that is not why sst now are rising because of the previous downwelling phase.

[Ntxw]

There is decent reason to think a possible Nino could come on. But the ocean is not there yet, the daily rise could easily fall just as fast once the MJO hits the Indian Ocean which it should soon. If you want to see the daily continuously rise and keep going you will need to have a good foundation below the surface. I was just pointing out that the sharp spike is likely due to the MJO passage rather than WWB activity/thermocline slosh.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,There it goes.

[Hurricaneman]

Could go back to neutral levels some time next week but if the SOI remains in the dump this ENSO warming will come back