ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8581 Postby Hunabku » Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:00 pm

Actually the Western Pacific is relatively cooler right now especially at depth. I think there's entirely too much focus on the atmosphere and its role relative to the ocean. Mostly because we don't really understand ocean dynamics, model it or monitor it like we do the atmosphere.

Before our last super nino there was a tremendous amount of heat in wpac That happened after a long -PDO phase where the wpac deep ocean took in a big gulp of heat. By 2103 that heat was really building up and expressing itself on the surface via the very active wpac hurricane season that brought us hurricane Haiyan - arguably the most powerful hurricane ever recorded. After that in 2014 our long super nino started building and began the process of transferring that heat eastward. Again wpac WWBs have a significantly more powerful effect when they blow across high ocean heat content and not just superficaly warm SSTs.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8582 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:20 pm

JISAO PDO for July also came in at +0.10. That's the lowest reading since 2014 but nonetheless manages to barely keep the streak alive positive
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8583 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:JISAO PDO for July also came in at +0.10. That's the lowest reading since 2014 but nonetheless manages to barely keep the streak alive positive


What do you think it'll come in for August so far?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8584 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:36 pm

Now that this year will more than likely be a neutral a year, the forecast for 2018 is going to be just as clouded. Could be a La Nina or an El Nino.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8585 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Now that this year will more than likely be a neutral a year, the forecast for 2018 is going to be just as clouded. Could be a La Nina or an El Nino.


About time you gave up on an El Niño for this year ;)
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8586 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:37 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Now that this year will more than likely be a neutral a year, the forecast for 2018 is going to be just as clouded. Could be a La Nina or an El Nino.


About time you gave up on an El Niño for this year ;)


It was going so well with nearly moderate values at Nino 3.4 until the MJO parked itself over the MC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8587 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:50 pm

The mid month update of ECMWF has Neutral ENSO thru the end of 2017 and early 2018.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8588 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:JISAO PDO for July also came in at +0.10. That's the lowest reading since 2014 but nonetheless manages to barely keep the streak alive positive


What do you think it'll come in for August so far?


I don't think it's changed much since July for August. Should be close, the main difference area would be the central tropical Pacific which has cooled a lot, vs the typical mantua box
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8589 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:49 am

Forget the models. Looks like La NIna coming..... I doubt it but what an up and down temp swings

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png
:roll:
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8590 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Now that this year will more than likely be a neutral a year, the forecast for 2018 is going to be just as clouded. Could be a La Nina or an El Nino.


Amazingly enough, though La Nina looked extremely unlikely and way less likely than El Nino as of just 1.5 months ago, I think it has almost reversed with La Nina looking to me to be much more likely than El Nino. This is because El Nino looks just about totally dead now due to the current negative anomalies of OHC/surface coupled with momentum going in the La Nina direction. I'd say that IF it ends up being neutral that cold neutral is favored over warm neutral right now. Neutral is probably most favored right now per model consensus, but I really have to wonder if La Nina's chance is higher than one may think. Here's why:

The July 2017 Tahiti SLP ended up being 1015.4 mb. No July Tahiti SLP of 1015 mb+ since at least 1950 hasn't lead into La Nina and there were 8 of them. When considering that in combination with the recent plunge of SSTs and OHC as well as +SOI still being favored for the forseeable future, I have to wonder if a weak La Nina is coming. Could it end up being a late oncoming La Nina like 1967-8 or 1984-5? After this really bad "El Nino fail", I think weak La Nina needs to be considered a reasonable possibility even if not as likely as neutral.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/14/17: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#8591 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:26 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Now that this year will more than likely be a neutral a year, the forecast for 2018 is going to be just as clouded. Could be a La Nina or an El Nino.


Amazingly enough, though La Nina looked extremely unlikely and way less likely than El Nino as of just 1.5 months ago, I think it has almost reversed with La Nina looking to me to be much more likely than El Nino. This is because El Nino looks just about totally dead now due to the current negative anomalies of OHC/surface coupled with momentum going in the La Nina direction. I'd say that IF it ends up being neutral that cold neutral is favored over warm neutral right now. Neutral is probably most favored right now per model consensus, but I really have to wonder if La Nina's chance is higher than one may think. Here's why:

The July 2017 Tahiti SLP ended up being 1015.4 mb. No July Tahiti SLP of 1015 mb+ since at least 1950 hasn't lead into La Nina and there were 8 of them. When considering that in combination with the recent plunge of SSTs and OHC as well as +SOI still being favored for the forseeable future, I have to wonder if a weak La Nina is coming. Could it end up being a late oncoming La Nina like 1967-8 or 1984-5? After this really bad "El Nino fail", I think weak La Nina needs to be considered a reasonable possibility even if not as likely as neutral.


I feel like it can go either way. We need the upper level winds to cooperate with whatever event that is trying to unfold. Remember Tahiti was coming in with El Nino monthly averaged MSLP's yet no significant WWB occurred.

Last seasons Nina had the same problem. We would see La Nina monthly averaged MSLP's yet the La Nina onset was delayed until late fall since the trades did not cooperate.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8592 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:45 pm

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 0364922880


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8593 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:33 am

Can you pronounce, La niña?

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8594 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:52 pm

NDG wrote:Can you pronounce, La niña?

[ii.imgur.com/3wMSgdc.png[/img]


I think this has a lot to do with the cooling we are seeing:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 0364922880



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Re: ENSO Updates

#8595 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:10 pm

NDG wrote:Can you pronounce, La niña?

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3wMSgdc.png[img]


If we can get a La Nina to get going now it will make 2018 a lot more interesting in regards to ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8596 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:07 am

Looks like on today's update, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 continue their cooling.

Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C if not -0.5C
I wished I could had bet against all the people that were on the El Nino train a couple of months ago, I would had been sitting on $$$$ right now. :wink: :lol:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8597 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 21, 2017 7:11 am

The update will be -0.5C later this morning, the precipitous drop continues
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8598 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:40 am

Weekly update for 3.4 is -0.5C and region 1+2 is -0.7C. If this trend continues....is it possible we can see big late season activity like last year??

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8599 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:25 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Weekly update for 3.4 is -0.5C and region 1+2 is -0.7C. If this trend continues....is it possible we can see big late season activity like last year??

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for


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Its a possibility. If the ocean and atmosphere couples then a late burst has better odds in October. The main concern, not limited to the Atlantic but other basins as well, is dry air at various levels that has been a problem for TCs globally this year
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8600 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:49 am

Ntxw wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Weekly update for 3.4 is -0.5C and region 1+2 is -0.7C. If this trend continues....is it possible we can see big late season activity like last year??

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for


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Its a possibility. If the ocean and atmosphere couples then a late burst has better odds in October. The main concern, not limited to the Atlantic but other basins as well, is dry air at various levels that has been a problem for TCs globally this year


I agree, the NAO will have to be watched as well, if the NAO goes to a strong positive regime from September to October could mean a busy threat period for the US, IMO. Regarding the dry air it has not been that big of a problem in the western Atlantic Basin, IMO.
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