ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

The current amplitude, evolution, and timing of the downwelling Kelvin Waves in the Equatorial Pacific is closely mirroring 2009 this year and another downwelling KW is passing the international dateline atm which will further suppress the thermocline and maintain the heightened OHC thru the Equinox. Ironically this is about the same time when another major downwelling wave formed in 2009 and crossed the central Pacific.

This Year
[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC002/IDYOC002.201807.gif[/mg]


2009
[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC002/IDYOC002.200907.gif[/g]


For more subsurface maps see: http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/sota.shtml

Its astonishing to me how 2009 was ignored as an analog for this season. There were lots of similarities @ the sub surface and the observed zonal wind activity. There were also similarities in the Atlantic basin, with 2009 having an MDR as cool as this years.

[NotSparta]

The current amplitude, evolution, and timing of the downwelling Kelvin Waves in the Equatorial Pacific is closely mirroring 2009 this year and another downwelling KW is passing the international dateline atm which will further suppress the thermocline and maintain the heightened OHC thru the Equinox. Ironically this is about the same time when another major downwelling wave formed in 2009 and crossed the central Pacific.

This Year
[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC002/IDYOC002.201807.gif[/mg]


2009
[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC002/IDYOC002.200907.gif[/g]


For more subsurface maps see: http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/sota.shtml

Its astonishing to me how 2009 was ignored as an analog for this season. There were lots of similarities @ the sub surface and the observed zonal wind activity. There were also similarities in the Atlantic basin, with 2009 having an MDR as cool as this years.

I'm figuring it's because El Niño set in earlier. Seems like a good analog, however, imo, it will likely be weaker than 2009 (moderate rather than moderate-strong) due to the Niño being a bit later.

[StruThiO]

ONI for AMJ is -0.1C

[CyclonicFury]

ONI for AMJ is -0.1C

I doubt we will see ONI reach +0.5C until JJA at the earliest.

[Ntxw]

ONI for AMJ is -0.1C

I doubt we will see ONI reach +0.5C until JJA at the earliest.

ASO may not even make 0.5C officially and might even be later. But because it is a trimonthly averaged value, El Nino forcing will have already begun by then..if it hasn't already or about to be soon. Most who are well versed and into the ENSO loop generally agree later this month the overall Pacific state will move into what you traditionally think of as a "nino" state atmosphere. Remember that in 2009 most if not everybody was expecting a weak event if you go back in this thread to those days. But late in the summer and fall it began to run away from those forecasts and really took off.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1014461564785647616

[Ntxw]

Eric posted previously about the next downwelling KW. That will increase the OHC and renew the subsurface in the coming months. CFSv2 forecasts sees this event.

[Kingarabian]

Quite the trade burst over the dateline on the GFS 850mb wind forecast:



Would've meant something if the sub surface was not this warm.

[StruThiO]

If that trade burst verifies could that be strong enough to produce an upwelling Kelvin wave? The subsurface pool hasn't really seemed to have changed much the last 2 weeks or so IMO

[NotSparta]

If that trade burst verifies could that be strong enough to produce an upwelling Kelvin wave? The subsurface pool hasn't really seemed to have changed much the last 2 weeks or so IMO

Possibly if it lasts a while. Looks too short lived to do too much

[Kingarabian]

I think what's interesting is the lack of a true upwelling Kelvin wave so far. It's still very early, but even in the CFS subsurface forecasts, the cold pool is lacking.

[NotSparta]

I think what's interesting is the lack of a true upwelling Kelvin wave so far. It's still very early, but even in the CFS subsurface forecasts, the cold pool is lacking.

I'm not so sure that the CFS subsurface should really be looked at. It always has weird solutions, like the 5.5°C anomalies in August.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015803989844062208




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015806223059378176

[NotSparta]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015803989844062208[/weet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015806223059378176[/weet]

Even though the upcoming trades could be a slight setback for +ENSO, it's still inevitably headed in that direction anyway.

[NDG]

The trend during the past few days has been on easterlies picking up across the central equatorial Pacific which makes sense with models showing the MJO strengthening in phase 5 over the next several days.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1015591626557669380

[CyclonicFury]

Don't think CPC will issue the first El Niño advisory this month. Not a single Niño 3.4 +0.5C weekly reading yet. Still expecting El Niño to form eventually, but it seems like CFSV2 was too fast with its development.

[Kingarabian]

Don't think CPC will issue the first El Niño advisory this month. Not a single Niño 3.4 +0.5C weekly reading yet. Still expecting El Niño to form eventually, but it seems like CFSV2 was too fast with its development.

Depends on the dataset you use. BOM is past +0.5C. And the weekly readings are all technically preliminary. The CPC has been known to go back and adjust readings.

[Kingarabian]

2017 had a much cooler CPAC/EPAC sub-surface around this time. This is the main reason why it El Nino cancelled when the trade's intensified. It's the complete opposite now.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016031807769403392




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016031493645393921

[NDG]

Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 slightly cooled down last week while Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 warmed up.

[LarryWx]

Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 slightly cooled down last week while Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 warmed up.

I agree with all of this except didn’t Niño 3.4 remain at +0.4?