ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Looks like on today's update, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 continue their cooling.

Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C if not -0.5C
I wished I could had bet against all the people that were on the El Nino train a couple of months ago, I would had been sitting on $$$$ right now.

Doubt anyone would have given you a good bet as the signals were really mixed through the spring and early summer. All the El Nino calls were very seldom with most of us saying if it ever materializes, it would be a weak one.

[Kingarabian]

I don't think there will be enough time for a La Nina to get declared in 2017 so 2017 will likely end up as a neutral year. 2018 will be fun to watch as we see a warm pool build in the WPac.

[NDG]

Looks like on today's update, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 continue their cooling.

Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C if not -0.5C
I wished I could had bet against all the people that were on the El Nino train a couple of months ago, I would had been sitting on $$$$ right now.

Doubt anyone would have given you a good bet as the signals were really mixed through the spring and early summer. All the El Nino calls were very seldom with most of us saying if it ever materializes, it would be a weak one.

Come on now, you know that there were a lot of you that were banking on an El Nino, a weak one is still a weak one that could had caused trouble for the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like on today's update, Nino 3.4, Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 continue their cooling.

Nino 3.4 down to -0.4C if not -0.5C
I wished I could had bet against all the people that were on the El Nino train a couple of months ago, I would had been sitting on $$$$ right now.

Doubt anyone would have given you a good bet as the signals were really mixed through the spring and early summer. All the El Nino calls were very seldom with most of us saying if it ever materializes, it would be a weak one.

Come on now, you know that there were a lot of you that were banking on an El Nino, a weak one is still a weak one that could had caused trouble for the Atlantic.

I was interested in the prospect of an El Nino strictly to beat the record of no El Nino after a major El Nino until a couple of La Nina onsets. Also wanted to see if we could indeed get an El Nino despite the trade burtss and the winds not supporting an El Nino -- and we almost had it until the 3rd week of July...

It's agreed upon that a weak El Nino does little to quell the Atlantic. The Pacific was going to be active regardless of the ENSO state since the PDO in currently in a warm phase. So yeah.

[NDG]

Doubt anyone would have given you a good bet as the signals were really mixed through the spring and early summer. All the El Nino calls were very seldom with most of us saying if it ever materializes, it would be a weak one.

Come on now, you know that there were a lot of you that were banking on an El Nino, a weak one is still a weak one that could had caused trouble for the Atlantic.

I was interested in the prospect of an El Nino strictly to beat the record of no El Nino after a major El Nino until a couple of La Nina onsets. Also wanted to see if we could indeed get an El Nino despite the trade burtss and the winds not supporting an El Nino -- and we almost had it until the 3rd week of July...

It's agreed upon that a weak El Nino does little to quell the Atlantic. The Pacific was going to be active regardless of the ENSO state since the PDO in currently in a warm phase. So yeah.

Yeap, the streak continues of no El Ninos 2 years after a Super El Nino event.

[WeatherEmperor]

When it comes to this ENSO event, I am more concerned about strengthening La Nina atmospheric conditions. Since the atmosphere is currently displaying some Nina conditions, an official La Nina declaration is not important. I am stating this as it pertains to the Atlantic hurricane season not just for effects globally. I am concerned that continued cooling in the ENSO regions could force La Nina atmospheric conditions to get stronger and forcibly mix out the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic basis to allow big storms to form...like Matthew last year. It is worth noting that the latest CFSv2 has some members showing this cooling to continue into Oct/Nov and we may see region 3.4 drop to as low as -0.7C.

The reason why the recent cooling concerns me is because of what happened last year. On September 27, 2016 the total ACE for the ATL was around 59-60 units...well below seasonal averages. Many of us were sitting around here in the 2nd week of September thinking 2016 would end up as a more active version of 2013. And then La Nina got stronger which may (or may not) have caused the PDO to drop enough to create favorable enough conditions to allow Matthew, Nicole and Otto to form which contributed the remaining 80 or so units of ACE for the season. In the last 22 years or so, some of the classic Oct/Nov WC hurricanes formed with some type of La Nina conditions present:

October 1996 - Lili
October 1998 - Mitch
October 1999 - Irene
November 1999 - Wrong way Lenny
October / November 2001 - Michelle
October / November 2007 - Noel
October 2010 - Paola
October 2011 - Rina
October 2016 - Matthew

The list above is just an example...but some of these have the classic WC born storms turning NE towards Florida/Cuba type of tracks. I have no scientific research to back my theory we will see a strong WC storm this year that tracks NE towards Florida...but I am just noting the similarities with last year specifically in a sense that all it takes is for La Nina conditions to grow stronger in Oct/Nov which could drop the PDO enough to create super favorable conditions allowing a WC monster storm to form. This is my primary concern at this time.....

[AxaltaRacing24]

When it comes to this ENSO event, I am more concerned about strengthening La Nina atmospheric conditions. Since the atmosphere is currently displaying some Nina conditions, an official La Nina declaration is not important. I am stating this as it pertains to the Atlantic hurricane season not just for effects globally. I am concerned that continued cooling in the ENSO regions could force La Nina atmospheric conditions to get stronger and forcibly mix out the unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic basis to allow big storms to form...like Matthew last year. It is worth noting that the latest CFSv2 has some members showing this cooling to continue into Oct/Nov and we may see region 3.4 drop to as low as -0.7C.

The reason why the recent cooling concerns me is because of what happened last year. On September 27, 2016 the total ACE for the ATL was around 59-60 units...well below seasonal averages. Many of us were sitting around here in the 2nd week of September thinking 2016 would end up as a more active version of 2013. And then La Nina got stronger which may (or may not) have caused the PDO to drop enough to create favorable enough conditions to allow Matthew, Nicole and Otto to form which contributed the remaining 80 or so units of ACE for the season. In the last 22 years or so, some of the classic Oct/Nov WC hurricanes formed with some type of La Nina conditions present:

October 1996 - Lili
October 1998 - Mitch
October 1999 - Irene
November 1999 - Wrong way Lenny
October / November 2001 - Michelle
October / November 2007 - Noel
October 2010 - Paola
October 2011 - Rina
October 2016 - Matthew

The list above is just an example...but some of these have the classic WC born storms turning NE towards Florida/Cuba type of tracks. I have no scientific research to back my theory we will see a strong WC storm this year that tracks NE towards Florida...but I am just noting the similarities with last year specifically in a sense that all it takes is for La Nina conditions to grow stronger in Oct/Nov which could drop the PDO enough to create super favorable conditions allowing a WC monster storm to form. This is my primary concern at this time.....

Sounds like another back loaded season of quality storms. The ESNO cooling down and the state of the MJO just about confirm this.

[Kingarabian]

ENSO wise 2017 is now shaping up to be close to 2005 if we go by ONI and the cooling continues:



2005 was also situated in a warm PDO phase although not as strong the current phase we're in + the Pacific looks a lot warmer.

In 2005, ENSO was coming out of an El Nino and transitioning into cool-neutral/La Nina.

2017, ENSO transitioning out of a weak La Nina, began transitioning into a warm neutral and the rest remains to be seen, but most likely a cool-neutral.

[Ntxw]

Warmed a little, will be -0.1C at the update

[cycloneye]

CPC text of the 8/28/17 update with Nino 3.4 at -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Tornado_1257]

According to the CPC, we are now at -0.2C for this week (despite the Labor Day weekend, an update was released today as opposed to releasing one tomorrow).

Also, the current CFSv2 model predicts a La Niña winter. I would not be too surprised to see a La Niña Watch being issued on the next monthly ENSO update. We shall see.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Edited to add link.

[Ntxw]

According to the CPC, we are now at -0.2C for this week (despite the Labor Day weekend, an update was released today as opposed to releasing one tomorrow).

Also, the current CFSv2 model predicts a La Niña winter. I would not be too surprised to see a La Niña Watch being issued on the next monthly ENSO update. We shall see.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Edited to add link.

It's probably too late for a true La Nina. We should stay neutral through the rest of the year perhaps slight bias towards cool neutral. You need 5 consecutive trimonthlies and there's only 4 months left including Sept for the year.

[Kingarabian]

NCDC PDO is down -0.68. Wonder if JISAO will now make the PDO negative or keep it positive. It'll be a close call.

[Kingarabian]

Massive trade burst from the GFS:



Likely make La Nina a big player in early 2018 winter.

[Ntxw]

-0.6C coming at the update

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 9/11/17 that has Nino 3.4 down to -0.6C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/907553279562760192




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/907554550130679811

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/908314033987743745




NWSCPC ✔ @NWSCPC
A La Nina watch has been issued, with a 55-60% chance of #LaNina during Northern Hemisphere fall & winter 2017-18. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml …
8:58 AM - Sep 14, 2017

[cycloneye]

As always,the CPC blog has interesting things about their thinking and in this case why they issued La Nina Watch.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... %B1a-watch

[Kingarabian]

I agree completely with the La Nina watch. It has the potential to peak as a moderate event during DJF if current trends continue -- but we can't discount a cool neutral.

I would then start monitoring the winds in the CPac and see if a strong WWB takes off through mid Feb as we're overdue for one, especially if we get a La Nina.