ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[StruThiO]

However, I think the significance lies within models maintaining, if not trending slighter more enthusiastic, for a nino of some sort as the spring barrier leaves us

[CyclonicFury]

It seems to be finally time for an El Niño watch issued by CPC. Should be issued in Thursday's update

[cycloneye]

Is the first time in 2018 that the CDAS graphic has Niño 3.4 in positive territory. Is this the turning point to stay in positive or will go down again to negative?

[NDG]

Per the last 2 Euros largely averaged out and adjusted for biases, here's my rough SOI projections for the next 10 days:
6/11: -26
6/12: -28
6/13: -9
6/14: +1
6/15: 0
6/16: -7
6/17: -13
6/18: -17
6/19: -13
6/20: -9

Based on this, I'm guessing the 6/1-20 SOI will be near -8 and will mean June as a whole has a pretty high chance to end up negative and a pretty good chance to end up sub -5. That would be pretty supportive of a later in the year weak to low end moderate El Nino based on history back to the late 1800s and especially when considering the subsurface now being near or warmer than +1.0.

I'm projecting Tahiti to be in or near the 1014-1014.25 range and Darwin to be in or near the 1014.3-1014.7 range for 6/1-20. Consider these stats:

Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000: 13.0
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000: 13.7

Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 13.5
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 12.8

Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 12.8
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.5
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 14.2
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 14.1

So, the Darwin SLP appears on the way to above normal for June with Tahiti slightly above. Actually, there have been only 3 Junes with Darwin SLP higher than 1014 mb since 1950: 2004 (preceded weak El Nino), 1997 (preceded SEN), and 1965 (preceded SEN). So, Darwin, alone, favors El Nino.

Have there been any Tahiti Junes in the high 1013s or higher that preceded El Nino? Actually, there have been a pretty good number but mainly weak: 1965 SEN (1013.7), 1968 MEN (1014.9), 1969 WEN (1013.8), 1976 WEN (1013.8), 1979 WEN (1014.5), 1991 SEN (1013.8), 2004 WEN (1013.7), and 2006 WEN (1013.8).

Conclusion: I'm leaning toward a late oncoming (after ASO in deference to the Eurosip May Nino 3.4 forecast for ASO being only warm neutral) weak to low end moderate El Nino this year.

**Edit: I was typing this at the same time as Kingarabian was doing his!

SOI tanked yesterday and today, great call!

[mrbagyo]

JMA wants a Modoki.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1006855795277873157




What happens to West Pacific during Modoki?






Link

[cycloneye]

El NIño Watch is issued

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 June 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.

ENSO-neutral continued during May, as indicated by mostly average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño indices were between +0.2°C and 0.0°C, except for the Niño-1+2 index, which remained negative (-0.5°C; [Fig. 2]). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased over the past month [Fig. 3], as another downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave reinforced the already above-average subsurface temperatures [Fig. 4]. Convection remained suppressed near the Date Line and was slightly enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with El Niño most likely thereafter [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus favors the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

As always,the ENSO Blogs go to more details about why CPC issued the El Niño Watch.Below is the June one.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... %B1o-watch

Excerpt about the +PMM:

Another interesting thing this map shows us is the prominent pattern of warmer-than-average surface temperatures north of the equator, and cooler-than-average waters south of the equator. This illustrates the strongly positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode

[JPmia]

so are they/we thinking a Modoki El Nino?

[Eric Webb]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

[StruThiO]

Welcome Webb, we appreciate your research and analysis!!

[Kingarabian]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-4-24-15-pm_orig.png[img]

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-9-14-47-am_orig.png[img]

Welcome, Eric! Thank you for sharing your ENS ONI, and I can't wait to take a look at it. We've been quoting your tweets on this thread and elsewhere for some time now. Always informative and always good to have your insight. Good to have your contribution on probably the most comprehensive ENSO thread on the internet.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1007385748109250561

[Eric Webb]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-4-24-15-pm_orig.png[img]

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-9-14-47-am_orig.png[img]

Welcome, Eric! Thank you for sharing your ENS ONI, and I can't wait to take a look at it. We've been quoting your tweets on this thread and elsewhere for some time now. Always informative and always good to have your insight. Good to have your contribution on probably the most comprehensive ENSO thread on the internet.

I'm certainly glad to contribute!

As you'll later see when you take a closer look at the ENS ONI, the similarities between the 1876-78 & 2014-16 El Ninos are quite eery to say the least. I think 1880-81 is a very plausible scenario for 2018-19, with a weak, central pacific El Nino that develops after the Equinox and has trouble fading away into next spring.

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO
1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox
1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino
1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO
1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina
1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

ENS ONI 1876-1880


ENS ONI 2014-2018

[CyclonicFury]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-4-24-15-pm_orig.png[img]

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-9-14-47-am_orig.png[img]

Welcome, Eric! Thank you for sharing your ENS ONI, and I can't wait to take a look at it. We've been quoting your tweets on this thread and elsewhere for some time now. Always informative and always good to have your insight. Good to have your contribution on probably the most comprehensive ENSO thread on the internet.

I'm certainly glad to contribute!

As you'll later see when you take a closer look at the ENS ONI, the similarities between the 1876-78 & 2014-16 El Ninos are quite eery to say the least. I think 1880-81 is a very plausible scenario for 2018-19, with a weak, central pacific El Nino that develops after the Equinox and has trouble fading away into next spring.

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO
1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox
1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino
1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO
1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina
1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

ENS ONI 1876-1880


ENS ONI 2014-2018

I know this thread isn't related to Atlantic hurricane activity, but it is interesting that the 1880 season was quite active in the Atlantic with 9 hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Welcome EW. We have been posting many of your twitter posts that are important ones to understand what is going on with ENSO.

[NotSparta]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

Welcome to S2K Eric!

Looks like I'll be saving some links, thanks for the resources!

[Weather150]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

Welcome! You are very insightful.

[Kingarabian]

Hi all, I've been lurking on this site for a while and finally decided to make a post.
For those that are interested, I have brought my Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) back to life on my new website. The index uses 25 SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and satellite-based datasets, spans from the mid 19th-century to the present and has been quality controlled to ensure reliability and that the amplitude of ENSO events especially before 1950, is somewhat realistic. I have also provided the raw Monthly NINO 3.4 SSTs, monthly ONI, tri-monthly ONI, standardized data, and ranks in Excel format to make everyone's lives easier. If you're a resident of North Carolina, this site is also where I'll be putting a massive winter storm archive that goes from 1895 to the present. Data including individual storm maps, individual storm rankings, and seasonal maps are currently available from 1895-1919.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

https://www.webberweather.com/about.html

Enjoy!

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-4-24-15-pm_orig.png[img]

[img]https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/screen-shot-2018-06-14-at-9-14-47-am_orig.png[img]

Welcome, Eric! Thank you for sharing your ENS ONI, and I can't wait to take a look at it. We've been quoting your tweets on this thread and elsewhere for some time now. Always informative and always good to have your insight. Good to have your contribution on probably the most comprehensive ENSO thread on the internet.

I'm certainly glad to contribute!

As you'll later see when you take a closer look at the ENS ONI, the similarities between the 1876-78 & 2014-16 El Ninos are quite eery to say the least. I think 1880-81 is a very plausible scenario for 2018-19, with a weak, central pacific El Nino that develops after the Equinox and has trouble fading away into next spring.

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO
1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox
1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino
1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO
1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina
1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

ENS ONI 1876-1880
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfr0dOdXcAEZda1.jpg[mg]

ENS ONI 2014-2018
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfr0dOeX0AETSXR.jpg[mg]

Who would've known that in the late 1800s there's analog period that fits perfectly with the present. Great work. I've been on the record saying that 2018 will be a unique El Nino event, likely triggered due the record warm PDO regime. But it sure looks like this event has taken place before.

You brought great awareness to the PMM and its current strength. Is there PMM data from 1875-1880 that we can use for comparison purposes?

[Kingarabian]

IMO the CPC should've issued an El Nino watch last month (more than enough factors to initiate one with the persistent dateline WWB's and a warm sub surface), and went with an El Nino warning today.

Latest Euro weeklies show the Walker cell in an El Nino setup by July:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1007410681296011265

[NotSparta]

Looks like the base of the +PMM (around dateline) has connected with the equator. This will spur on westerly wind anomalies on the equator there, making WWBs much easier to attain, in one of the better spots to begin an El Niño event.