ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NotSparta]

This is looking like a rare setup where things could be favorable for both the Atlantic and for storms near Hawaii

Recon may be quite busy this year. May see something similar to 2016 where Hermine didn't get the normal coverage because there were far more important things to fly

The SST configuration looks anything but favorable for the Atlantic. Cooler than average SST’s in both the far north and off Africa in the MDR doesn’t scream favorable to me.

What’s your thoughts?

Seems to be mostly seasonal, usually comes down this time of year.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/987292976970952704

[Alyono]

This is looking like a rare setup where things could be favorable for both the Atlantic and for storms near Hawaii

Recon may be quite busy this year. May see something similar to 2016 where Hermine didn't get the normal coverage because there were far more important things to fly

The SST configuration looks anything but favorable for the Atlantic. Cooler than average SST’s in both the far north and off Africa in the MDR doesn’t scream favorable to me.


What’s your thoughts?

That the trend has been gradually increasing to the mean in the western tropical atlantic

[TheStormExpert]

This is looking like a rare setup where things could be favorable for both the Atlantic and for storms near Hawaii

Recon may be quite busy this year. May see something similar to 2016 where Hermine didn't get the normal coverage because there were far more important things to fly

The SST configuration looks anything but favorable for the Atlantic. Cooler than average SST’s in both the far north and off Africa in the MDR doesn’t scream favorable to me.


What’s your thoughts?

That the trend has been gradually increasing to the mean in the western tropical atlantic

Are you saying a west-based season similar to the tracks of the storms of 2005?

[Alyono]

The SST configuration looks anything but favorable for the Atlantic. Cooler than average SST’s in both the far north and off Africa in the MDR doesn’t scream favorable to me.


What’s your thoughts?

That the trend has been gradually increasing to the mean in the western tropical atlantic

Are you saying a west-based season similar to the tracks of the storms of 2005?

I would favor a west based season. East gulf may have above average risk due to possible troughing near east coast

[Kingarabian]

Those cooler surface waters over Nino 1+2 are making their way westward, now over Nino 3
Those -0.8 C are still lingering.
Also notice that the easterly trades are still pretty strong across the eastern Pacific, this could cancel the warmer than average subsurface waters as they reach the surface.

Doubt its the cool waters beneath Nino 1+2 moving west.There's still a small confined area of cool anomalies up to -1C extending down to about 50meters right under Nino 3. As we saw in 2017, these small pools just beneath the surface can be misleading when wind activity is neutral and there's no dominant easterlies or westerlies. Last year a small confined area of +1C under Nino 3.4 kept the ONI near El Nino levels until late July. Wasn't until we had a real trade burst event did the cooler sub surface pool that was down at 100 meters took over and started the La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

Also wanted to point out that last night's 00z Euro run re-affirmed the Euro's recent run as it continues to show a negative SOI setup for the next week. Something to keep an eye on as we get into May. The months of May and June make or break El Nino events historically speaking.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/987445518568738817

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/987445518568738817

The Kelvin Wave cannot be ignored, but with trades that strong east of the dateline, the subsurface warm pool may significantly weaken as it reaches the eastern Pacific. There are no signs of a strong WWB in the immediate future and the westerly anomalies, though present, are weak and possibly too far west to mean much. Just my opinion.

[Hurricaneman]

If the setup sticks we could have an El Niño peak season but wit trades to near the date line it would probably end up being madoki as it seems some cool anomalies are popping up between 90w to 130w but west of there could very well be an El Niño which could lead to a nasty hurricane season for both the CPAC and the Atlantic

[NotSparta]

Also wanted to point out that last night's 00z Euro run re-affirmed the Euro's recent run as it continues to show a negative SOI setup for the next week. Something to keep an eye on as we get into May. The months of May and June make or break El Nino events historically speaking.

It's not certain though, there are a few years where there was negative SOI for May and June that have busted

[NDG]

Nino 4 has continued to warm but Nino 3 has cooled down some, so my estimate that Nino 3.4 has remained steady for this week.

Also notice the steady easterly cooling trade winds have not let up from Nino 3.4 on eastward.

[Kingarabian]

Also wanted to point out that last night's 00z Euro run re-affirmed the Euro's recent run as it continues to show a negative SOI setup for the next week. Something to keep an eye on as we get into May. The months of May and June make or break El Nino events historically speaking.

It's not certain though, there are a few years where there was negative SOI for May and June that have busted

Sorry, I should've added *In* El Nino candidate years.

[NotSparta]

Also wanted to point out that last night's 00z Euro run re-affirmed the Euro's recent run as it continues to show a negative SOI setup for the next week. Something to keep an eye on as we get into May. The months of May and June make or break El Nino events historically speaking.

It's not certain though, there are a few years where there was negative SOI for May and June that have busted

Sorry, I should've added *In* El Nino candidate years.

Those too, like 2017 and 2012

[Kingarabian]

It's not certain though, there are a few years where there was negative SOI for May and June that have busted

Sorry, I should've added *In* El Nino candidate years.

Those too, like 2017 and 2012

2012 is an anomaly, that year was weird. In 2017, May was a positive SOI. These two years have something in common in that both did not see repeated significant down welling Kelvin waves. The Ocean is an important component in ENSO.

So IMO, the months of May and June are more than likely to dictate the status of ENSO.

[NotSparta]

Sorry, I should've added *In* El Nino candidate years.

Those too, like 2017 and 2012

2012 is an anomaly, that year was weird.

2017, May was a positive SOI.

It was more neutral, but June was very negative

[Ntxw]

2012 was amidst a very -PDO. The north Pacific in the EPAC was essentially opposite of what it is now.

[Kingarabian]

I know theres a lot of debate on whether the trade winds are going to allow for an El Nino or not.
So If we compare the zonal winds from 2006 and 2009 with 2018, we can see quite clearly that 2018 so far has been keeping up.

2006 Jan-May:


2009 Jan-May:


2018 Jan-April


The westerly anomalies have been much stronger in the western Pacific but a bit weaker in the central/eastern pacific compared to 2006 and 2009, though at the same time, 2018 has only seen near average trade wind strengths compared to 2006 and 2009. Stronger westerly wind bursts in the WPAC means stronger downwelling Kelvin waves and potentially stronger El Nino events. You can see the difference of having strong WWBs in the WPAC vs weaker here:

2006 Jan-May:


2009 Jan-May:


2018 Jan-April

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988153671358787584




Also at the same time the latest Euro run for the next 9 days would bring down the April 30 day SOI average from +8.5 to +3.0.

[NDG]

To my surprise it looks like that in this week's update Nino 3.4 is going up to -0.3C

[cycloneye]

I dont know if is here in PR only but i can't open the CPC site.