ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Sambucol]

Historic reading this week

Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C

What does this mean for hurricane season and our winter here? Thanks.

[Kingarabian]

I put together the subsurface depth anomalies from the beginning of May to July 15th. We've had two trade bursts in this time frame and their effects are reflected @ the subsurface as we can clearly see cold pools come and go (150 meters and lower).

As you can see ever since the beginning of May, the cooler anomalies could not make it past 100meters, and struggled to stay at 150meters. So as long as this continues, Nino 3.4 and the other Nino regions will remain warm, trade bursts or not.

[WeatherEmperor]

I put together the subsurface depth anomalies from the beginning of May to July 15th. We've had two trade bursts in this time frame and their effects are reflected @ the subsurface as we can clearly see cold pools come and go (150 meters and lower).

As you can see ever since the beginning of May, the cooler anomalies could not make it past 100meters, and struggled to stay at 150meters. So as long as this continues, Nino 3.4 and the other Nino regions will remain warm, trade bursts gif[/img]

As warm at the Nino regions are and have been for months, the atmosphere as a whole stubbornly refuses to fully transition to an El Nino state. While there are hints here and there in the atmosphere for El Nino, overall the total atmosphere remains at Neutral and the CPC update discussion from a few days ago confirms that.

More importantly, it appears time is almost up in terms of the atmosphere switching to a full blown El Nino state in the Atlantic basin.



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[Kingarabian]

I put together the subsurface depth anomalies from the beginning of May to July 15th. We've had two trade bursts in this time frame and their effects are reflected @ the subsurface as we can clearly see cold pools come and go (150 meters and lower).

As you can see ever since the beginning of May, the cooler anomalies could not make it past 100meters, and struggled to stay at 150meters. So as long as this continues, Nino 3.4 and the other Nino regions will remain warm, trade bursts gif[/img]

As warm at the Nino regions are and have been for months, the atmosphere as a whole stubbornly refuses to fully transition to an El Nino state. While there are hints here and there in the atmosphere for El Nino, overall the total atmosphere remains at Neutral and the CPC update discussion from a few days ago confirms that.

More importantly, it appears time is almost up in terms of the atmosphere switching to a full blown El Nino state in the Atlantic basin.



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When the CPC talks about atmosphere I think they're largely talking about how it's situated over the Pacific. I'm not sure how the atmosphere's status over the Pacific colludes with the Atlantic basin. It's ENSO that has an affect on the Atlantic basin, and ENSO is determined by the pacific ocean and the atmosphere in those parts - which the latter is largely measured through the SOI (pressures over Darwin and Tahiti).

Despite the lack of atmosphere support (look at the SOI), ENSO has been trending towards an El Nino from January to April, and then from May till now its been reflecting on the Nino regions.

Then with an El Nino brewing, you look at where the Walker cell is situated to see if there will be a suppressive state over the GOM and the Caribbean. You also see how Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 are doing and how warm they are to see if there will be extra shear over the GOM and Caribbean.

So the bottom line is that sure there is no support from the atmosphere to have an El Nino, but despite that, there is a considerable resemblance of one being reflected over the Nino regions and 100m below the surface. And if this continues, then the Atlantic basin will eventually feel some El Nino effects. How big those effects is anyone's guess.

[WeatherEmperor]

El Nino conditions...if any... will have to start showing in a hurry for the Atlantic in order to cause disruptions. Climatologically the Atlantic heats up in 4-5 weeks and into September.

Currently wind shear levels across the ATL basin are at or below normal and the same applies for dry air conditions.

The Pacific has been warming steadily for 4 months and the atmosphere barely budged. I see no evidence (charts, graphs, etc) currently the atmosphere is going to go like "Ooh its September. I guess we can create El Nino conditions over the ATL now". It had 4+ months to do it. Highly doubt it will do it in 4 weeks based on evidence I see. I do think however it is very likely we see Nino conditions affect the ATL more heavily in the Fall/Winter time.


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[NDG]

Nino 3.4 continues with its cool down, it should go down to at least +0.5 on Monday's ENSO update. IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 continues with its cool down, it should go down to at least +0.5 on Monday's ENSO update. IMO.

It'll fluctuate, but I think there's an argument for +0.5C, +0.6C, or even +0.8C, because there are +0.8C @ the equator under 140W. Plus the Nino regions as a whole have warmed up since last week. +0.5C averaged anomalies stretch out from 170E to 110W.

According to that graphic, @ 5N the +0.6C contour is over 140W. Right under it is +0.8C . @ 5S it's +0.6C. Nino 3 also warmed up. So if you average it out it should be over +0.6C.

[Kingarabian]

El Nino conditions...if any... will have to start showing in a hurry for the Atlantic in order to cause disruptions. Climatologically the Atlantic heats up in 4-5 weeks and into September.

Currently wind shear levels across the ATL basin are at or below normal and the same applies for dry air conditions.

The Pacific has been warming steadily for 4 months and the atmosphere barely budged. I see no evidence (charts, graphs, etc) currently the atmosphere is going to go like "Ooh its September. I guess we can create El Nino conditions over the ATL now". It had 4+ months to do it. Highly doubt it will do it in 4 weeks based on evidence I see. I do think however it is very likely we see Nino conditions affect the ATL more heavily in the Fall/Winter time.


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We won't know if the Atlantic will see suppressed activity until it happens. So if August comes in above average or normal then we can assume there are no Nino effects occurring.

Last year we had a La Nina (indicator for increased Atlantic hurricane activity) and the ACE for the Atlantic Hurricane season was well below average until Mathew popped up.

[NDG]

Nino 3.4 continues with its cool down, it should go down to at least +0.5 on Monday's ENSO update. IMO.

http://i.imgur.com/YeGzR2X.png

It'll fluctuate, but I think there's an argument for +0.5C, +0.6C, or even +0.8C, because there are +0.8C @ the equator under 140W. Plus the Nino regions as a whole have warmed up since last week. +0.5C averaged anomalies stretch out from 170E to 110W.

According to that graphic, @ 5N the +0.6C contour is over 140W. Right under it is +0.8C . @ 5S it's +0.6C. Nino 3 also warmed up. So if you average it out it should be over +0.6C.

From a week ago, Nino 3.4 has cooled down by comparing at the graphics below, +0.8C has shrunk and so has the +0.6C, the western part of Nino 3 has cooled down while the eastern part of Nino 3 has warmed up, but the eastern part of Nino 3 does not go into the equation to average out Nino 3.4 , IMO.

[Kingarabian]

I'm using this graphic which averages out the buoy data.



The latest subsurface frame shows enough +1.0C anomalies surfacing to keep Nino 3.4 at or above +0.5C until August.

[LarryWx]

Per my eyeballs, 3.4 has clearly cooled over the last week after it had been steadily warming. I roughly estimate that it cooled from +0.8 to +0.65 or maybe as cool as +0.6. However, this last weekly reading cooled to +0.6 instead of warmed despite the displayed TAO clearly being warmer. So, due to this discrepancy, the weekly number to be reported on Monday may not be cooler. TAO changes are clearly not always good at predicting changes in the weeklies.

[LarryWx]

Ok, I've seen enough model runs. Consistent with my recent posts, I'm now predicting near +7 for the full July SOI with a range of +5 to +9. This is based on a rough estimate of +11 for 7/17-31 combined with +3 for 7/1-16.

I'll need to reexamine my analogs. This will likely mean I reduce the Niño chance slightly from "very good" to "good" in deference to El Niño "cancel" analogs like 1932, 1993, and 2012 considering this month's rather solid +SOI combined with the continued model lean toward neutral positive. However, because the monthly SOI is often jumpy in summer in oncoming weak Niño years, Niño 3.4 is still in weak Niño range, and that same model consensus was too cool for June, I'm not likely to yet go anywhere near "Niño cancel".

[Kingarabian]

Latest subsurface snapshot continues to show more of what has been the norm; Ocean continues to somehow produce +1.0C anomalies from 150meters-100meters and up.



So expect Nino 3.4 to continue coming in at +0.5C or higher.

[Ntxw]

This week at the update will nudge down to 0.5C and overall not too many changes. Nino 1+2 bumped up to 0.0C

[NDG]

This week at the update will nudge down to 0.5C and overall not too many changes. Nino 1+2 bumped up to 0.0C

Just as I thought

[Kingarabian]

So with last week coming in at +0.5C, we can afford this week or next week to come in at +0.4C. So that'll give us our 2nd
tri-monthly.

If we go by ONI, at this time (MJJ) 2017 is ahead of 2014, 2009, 2006, 2004, and 2002.

So 2017 has ONI and MEI in its favor - two important variables.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.5C and Nino 1+2 up to 0.0C.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the upper OHC cooled from near +0.4 to +0.3. That doesn't do El Nino any favors.

[Kingarabian]

Ok, I've seen enough model runs. Consistent with my recent posts, I'm now predicting near +7 for the full July SOI with a range of +5 to +9. This is based on a rough estimate of +11 for 7/17-31 combined with +3 for 7/1-16.

I'll need to reexamine my analogs. This will likely mean I reduce the Niño chance slightly from "very good" to "good" in deference to El Niño "cancel" analogs like 1932, 1993, and 2012 considering this month's rather solid +SOI combined with the continued model lean toward neutral positive. However, because the monthly SOI is often jumpy in summer in oncoming weak Niño years, Niño 3.4 is still in weak Niño range, and that same model consensus was too cool for June, I'm not likely to yet go anywhere near "Niño cancel".

Hey Larry,

The Euro in the past 3 runs has been flipping the SOI back to negative from July 22-July 27. Don't know how significant it will be in reducing the monthly SOI value.

12z July 15:
July 22: Tahiti: 15.75, Darwin: 14.50
July 23: Tahiti: 14.25, Darwin: 14.00
July 24: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 14.00
July 25: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 14.00


12z July 16:
July 22: Tahiti: 15.75, Darwin: 14.50
July 23: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 14.25
July 24: Tahiti: 14.00, Darwin: 14.00
July 25: Tahiti: 14.25, Darwin: 13.75
July 26: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 14.00

12z July 17:
July 22: Tahiti: 15.75, Darwin: 14.75
July 23: Tahiti: 15.25, Darwin: 14.50
July 24: Tahiti: 15.50, Darwin: 14.00
July 25: Tahiti: 15.25, Darwin: 14.25
July 26: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 14.25
July 27: Tahiti: 14.75, Darwin: 15.00

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 0885783552


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