ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the subsurface graphics show warmer pool rising to surface.

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 in the span of about 3 weeks went from mod-nina values to now mod-nino levels. Be careful trying to use this region to predict a season as we have seen many times how quickly it can be influenced and abrubtly change. Large warm pool surfacing and likely continue warming. Waters in the WPAC cooling, gradient (weakening hadley cell).

[cycloneye]

Good blog by CPC about if March 2015 will be a repeat of March 2014 when a strong El Nino was proclaimed by many but didn't come.

Here we are—in March 2015—and we’ve got...
1. above-average temperatures in the subsurface equatorial Pacific.
2. westerly wind anomalies near the surface across the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
3. El Niño favored through the Northern Hemisphere Summer with a 50-60% chance.

Read whole blog at link.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... o-take-two

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could this cause any effect on the westerlies? Or strengthen it? There's a potentially powerful typhoon, soon to be called Maysak, that the folks here over the Western Pacific have been recently tracking, and it's the strongest (based on JTWC forecast) typhoon at this time of year in nearly a decade at least. We haven't actually seen this last year, at most we only got 75-kt typhoon Faxai. That's not it, as models also develop two more typhoons after Maysak, possibly Haishen and Noul/Ela(?) which they have consistently shown.

[Ntxw]

Small hints that another WWB may kick off early April in the western Pacific and move towards the dateline.

[cycloneye]

When you see flooding in Chile it means El Nino is around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDbKvTnHHWA

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW effects are now being felt across the globe, as cycloneye said flooding over South America and drought, bushfires over here in Southeast Asia accompanied by very very burning hot temperatures.

[dexterlabio]

Yes indeed. There is drought being felt in SE Asia, particularly in the Philippines where farmers in the southern provinces are making their move to conserve water for irrigation. Never heard of this news since 2010 (or maybe 2014 when the media was over-hyping on El Nino that actually busted).

[cycloneye]

Now this subsurface warm pool of 2015 compares bigtime with last years one.But 2015 has more in favor to sustain for more time these warm waters as easterly trade winds are weaker.In other words the present El Nino may grow in the comming months.

[Ntxw]

Yes indeed. There is drought being felt in SE Asia, particularly in the Philippines where farmers in the southern provinces are making their move to conserve water for irrigation. Never heard of this news since 2010 (or maybe 2014 when the media was over-hyping on El Nino that actually busted).

The recent flooding in the Atacama desert of Chile is telling as well as other parts of South America. 2014 and 2015 SST's are quite similar only difference is 2015 is already in the base state of El Nino.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/floods-chile-landslides-peru-after-heaviest-rain-80-years-1493792

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 is around 1.5C per tropicaltidbits. That's the warmest ENSO region now, tomorrow's update will be interesting to see how rapidly it rose officially. From the beginning of March to the end has been night and day complete 180. 3.4 will hover around 0.6C I think again.

[Yellow Evan]

30 day SOI also tanked big time.

[dexterlabio]

I wonder how much westerly winds would be induced by Maysak (and a possible tropical cyclone right after it)...

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 3/30/15 has El Nino at +0.6C.But the most important detail of the update is the dominance of the west winds.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 from the update also went from 0C to 1.2C. Next week's update will be crucial because it is the beginning of the new month. 2014-2015 will officially be in the books as El Nino (weak) when the ONI updates for JFM. And it appears we will be well on our way to the ever rare multi-year (no gaps) El Nino last being 1986-1987, 1987-1988.

[Yellow Evan]

Tood Kimberlain is very high on El Nino right now.

Todd Kimberlain ‏@ToddKimberlain 23m23 minutes ago

Footprint of El Niño full-fledged and maturing. Extremely +PDO + El Niño = strong response #ElNino #climate

[Ntxw]

This Nino has had some big Pacific tropical systems along with it on both side of the equator in 2015, Maysak being the latest beast within the favored waters.

[Kingarabian]

I think what stopped the emerging Nino last year were the lack of westerly winds. We had that big burst early on in the year, similar to this year. Let's see if this year is different and those WWB return.

[Ntxw]

I think what stopped the emerging Nino last year were the lack of westerly winds. We had that big burst early on in the year, similar to this year. Let's see if this year is different and those WWB return.

We very well may see another good Westerly wind event by early-mid April. I'd pay attention to the WPAC cyclone activity. Not sure if it will become a strong WWB like the previous event but the MJO should be on it's way after crossing the IO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2015 March update

Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection
and precipitation) were evident near the Date
Line.

Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) westerly winds
were located over the western and central
equatorial Pacific.

Anomalous upper-level (200-hPa) westerly
winds were apparent over the eastern
Pacific, while anomalous easterlies were
observed near the Date Line.

Last year showed lack of westerlies, which resulted to the failure of El Niño.

This year we have had two monsters in the WPac.