ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Here are 2 images from the 18th and 22nd of May. Notice 1+2 cooling ever so ever so slightly. Does this use satellite estimates too just like CDAS? How accurate are these??

[im]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170522/c86558d82fa148862efa8030d84cb2ee.gif[/img]

[im]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170522/b5a360a91d24ed422f8ffe916174c78d.gif[/img]


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I believe NESDIS uses AVHRR data which is satellite derived.

There's often discrepancies between CDAS and NESDIS as well. I remember last season CDAS showing a very cool Atlantic MDR and NESDIS had a warm Atlantic MDR, which the later ended up verifying in real time. At the same time, CDAS is showing a moderately positive PDO that is confirmed by JISAO, while NESDIS is showing a somewhat weaker PDO.

All useful information that we are fortunate to have especially since they relay data so quickly. The main thing is to be wary of unrealistic anomalies that the two may show at times and it's good to compare and contrast with raw data that is compiled over time.

[weathaguyry]

Something to keep in mind...

[WeatherEmperor]

[img]http://www.bom.gov.

Something to keep in mind...

This is very interesting. I am not sure I believe what its showing but its interesting for sure. Correct me if I am wrong but the Euro forecast comes out the first couple of days in June. It that one comes in lower than we really have something to talk about.


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[Kazmit]

[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGPD200/20170521/poama.nino34.png[img]

Something to keep in mind...

Cold neutral during the peak months.

[Yellow Evan]

[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGPD200/20170521/poama.nino34.png[img]

Something to keep in mind...

Cold neutral during the peak months.

Have we ever gone from near El Nino to cold neutral in a few months? I wanna say no.

[weathaguyry]

[img]http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGPD200/20170521/poama.nino34.png[img]

Something to keep in mind...

Cold neutral during the peak months.

Have we ever gone from near El Nino to cold neutral in a few months? I wanna say no.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that 2005 had something like that.

[Kingarabian]

Cold neutral during the peak months.

Have we ever gone from near El Nino to cold neutral in a few months? I wanna say no.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that 2005 had something like that.

2005 was cold neutral into a borderline La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

If it means anything, CFS back to showing a weak Nino.

[weathaguyry]

Have we ever gone from near El Nino to cold neutral in a few months? I wanna say no.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that 2005 had something like that.

2005 was cold neutral into a borderline La Nina.

Actually, based on the tri-monthlies it started out as a warm neutral- borderline Nino and ended up going down to near Nina by NDJ, with mostly dead neutral for the peak of the season. Here is some of the raw data for May of 2005.

[WeatherEmperor]

If it means anything, CFS back to showing a weak Nino.

Very interesting indeed. Do you have a link or picture?


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[Kingarabian]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that 2005 had something like that.

2005 was cold neutral into a borderline La Nina.

Actually, based on the tri-monthlies it started out as a warm neutral- borderline Nino and ended up going down to near Nina by NDJ, with mostly dead neutral for the peak of the season. Here is some of the raw data for May of 2005.

[img]https//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2005/may/lat-lon-200505-sst-lf-pg.gif[/img]

We were coming off an El Nino, transitioned in a neutral, and then quickly into a cool Neutral:

[weathaguyry]

It is showing a borderline Nino, but this has changed a lot over the past month, so I wouldn't stick to this idea

[Kingarabian]

[img]http:/origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif[/img]

It is showing a borderline Nino, but this has changed a lot over the past month, so I wouldn't stick to this idea

Likewise when it shows a La Nina in a couple of days.

[weathaguyry]

[img]http:/origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif[/img]

It is showing a borderline Nino, but this has changed a lot over the past month, so I wouldn't stick to this idea

Likewise when it shows a La Nina in a couple of days.

Agreed, the CFS model can be all over the place due to the constant new data being input into it

[Bocadude85]

If it means anything, CFS back to showing a weak Nino.

I wouldn't call what the CFS is showing an El Niño. It stays in warm neutral until October. CFS then shows it barely creeping over the .5 threshold in October.

[Ntxw]

I think the Hurricane season politics is at play again. What the CFSv2 is showing is simply a continuation of what it already is now. No drastic warming or drastic cooling, you nudge up to 0.5C long enough it's a weak Nino you nudge down a little it misses but the difference is not all that different.

[weathaguyry]

I'm not exactly sure what this means, but this has changed a lot over the past 10 days.

[dexterlabio]

I'm not exactly sure what this means, but this has changed a lot over the past 10 days.

With trade bursts happening should this be unexpected?

[cycloneye]

The TAO array program will be eliminated? Hopefully not because is an important tool to get data about ENSO.

@MichaelRLowry
Floored to see proposed FY18 @NOAA cuts effectively kill off how we observe/monitor El Niño (TAO) & tsunamis (DART)


 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/867383507399704578




@MJVentrice
By removing @NOAA's TAO buoy array, it will put the meteorological community back decades on advancing seasonal predictions


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/867404309729878019

[cycloneye]

Ntxw great CPC blog to read.What is your take? My take is 2017 ENSO forecast is nothing easy to do.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ing-coffee