ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

JB prediction of a Modoki El Niño for next Fall and Winter.

@BigJoeBastardi
Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino
should develop fall/winter)

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/960515197973692416

My memory is a bit sketchy...but didnt JB also go with Modoki El Nino for last year 2017?


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[Ntxw]

JB prediction of a Modoki El Niño for next Fall and Winter.

@BigJoeBastardi
Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino
should develop fall/winter)

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 7973692416

My memory is a bit sketchy...but didnt JB also go with Modoki El Nino for last year 2017?


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He predicts modoki Ninos every other year...

The current events are not enough to start a Nino. Raw winds in the central and eastern Pacific are still trades just in weakened form from climo. We need subsequent WWBs to follow. They often are helpful in late spring if you want to predict ninos.

[cycloneye]

Eventually,some will be right and others will be wrong about how ENSO will be by ASO.

@RyanMaue
ECMWF Feb 2018 seasonal products suggest a trajectory/return to "El Niño" conditions in the Pacific thru August 2018 while annual plumes warm the NINO 3.4 region dramatically.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/960598382178897925

[WeatherEmperor]

Eventually,some will be right and others will be wrong about how ENSO will be by ASO.

@RyanMaue
ECMWF Feb 2018 seasonal products suggest a trajectory/return to "El Niño" conditions in the Pacific thru August 2018 while annual plumes warm the NINO 3.4 region dramatically.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/960598382178897925

The CFS differs from the ECMWF in that the majority of individual forecast members including the ensemble mean keep borderline La Nina conditions through October. I agree with you that at some point someone will be right and someone wrong.




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[Kingarabian]

JB prediction of a Modoki El Niño for next Fall and Winter.

@BigJoeBastardi
Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino
should develop fall/winter)

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/960515197973692416

Good Ol Bastardi and his Modoki Nino's that never muster lol. The SOI can easily come back up next month.. Although it's going to be easier to favor a warmer ENSO this year since historically we don't see 3 Nina's in a row.

[Kingarabian]

JB prediction of a Modoki El Niño for next Fall and Winter.

@BigJoeBastardi
Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino
should develop fall/winter)

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 7973692416

My memory is a bit sketchy...but didnt JB also go with Modoki El Nino for last year 2017?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He predicts modoki Ninos every other year...

The current events are not enough to start a Nino. Raw winds in the central and eastern Pacific are still trades just in weakened form from climo. We need subsequent WWBs to follow. They often are helpful in late spring if you want to predict ninos.

Exactly this. This is a good start and it'll allow the subsurface to warm, but if we don't see continued backup WWB's in through the spring and June, chances for an El Nino are very slim.

[Hurricaneman]

My memory is a bit sketchy...but didnt JB also go with Modoki El Nino for last year 2017?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He predicts modoki Ninos every other year...

The current events are not enough to start a Nino. Raw winds in the central and eastern Pacific are still trades just in weakened form from climo. We need subsequent WWBs to follow. They often are helpful in late spring if you want to predict ninos.

Exactly this. This is a good start and it'll allow the subsurface to warm, but if we don't see continued backup WWB's in through the spring and June, chances for an El Nino are very slim.

Well we were one trimonthly away from an El Niño madoki in 2017 before the La Niña dip so he was right until the big dip in mid August

[StruThiO]

So a very early favorite right now for this ASO would be warm neutral, correct?

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
The current West Pacific MJO pulse is comparable in terms of amplitude & time of the year to the MJO events preceding the 1997-98 & 2015-16 Super Ninos. While this far from guarantees an El Nino, we're making the right moves at the right time to trigger one. #lolmodoki #ElNino



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/960645526235570178

[Ntxw]

Well we were one trimonthly away from an El Niño madoki in 2017 before the La Niña dip so he was right until the big dip in mid August

There were no greater than 0.5C anomalies in 2017

[1900hurricane]

I am not an expert on ENSO by any means, but I would perhaps watch for SPac and maybe even WPac tropical activity trends as we push towards and into Spring. The last complete seasons in both basins have been brutally quiet, and this SPac season has been too so far, although there are some signs of life in the near term as Madden-Julian passes through. January through March is typical peak season for the SPac as far as I can tell, although I haven't done a detailed climatological analysis for the basin. As far as the WPac is concerned, the March-June months could also be telling.

[Ntxw]

I think the SPAC tends to reflect activity based on the just prior/current ENSO event, may be due to reverse season spatially. What is often a good precursor is spring WPAC activity. The more intense systems we see during period usually has some correlation to kicking off El Nino vice versa

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, after poking through some of pre-Nino setups, the SPac might not be such a good indicator after all. The WPac does seem to have a stronger correlation though with ENSO and early season activity. Last year had a very lame start, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that El Nino failed. This is in contrast to some more recent years like 2015, 2004, 2002, and 1997, all of which had active early seasons and El Ninos. Even then though, it's not that easy, and false positives do happen (2008 is a great example). If it were that easy, we'd probably have less to talk about for one. : P

[StruThiO]

@webberweather
The current West Pacific MJO pulse is comparable in terms of amplitude & time of the year to the MJO events preceding the 1997-98 & 2015-16 Super Ninos. While this far from guarantees an El Nino, we're making the right moves at the right time to trigger one. #lolmodoki #ElNino



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/960645526235570178

we can only hope. strong el nino to shut down ATL and let the antilles rebuild, yes please

[cycloneye]

@PaulRoundy
Classic ascat example of winter hemisphere westerly wind burst cyclone. The strongest winds are in the Southern Hemisphere.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/960835976351440896

[euro6208]

I am not an expert on ENSO by any means, but I would perhaps watch for SPac and maybe even WPac tropical activity trends as we push towards and into Spring. The last complete seasons in both basins have been brutally quiet, and this SPac season has been too so far, although there are some signs of life in the near term as Madden-Julian passes through. January through March is typical peak season for the SPac as far as I can tell, although I haven't done a detailed climatological analysis for the basin. As far as the WPac is concerned, the March-June months could also be telling.

True. A cat 5 between March through June would kickstart a WWB for el nino or vice versa.

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
Here comes the downwelling Kelvin Wave to restore the wind-gravity balance in the EQ Pacific following this beastly West Pacific MJO pulse. Notice the thermocline suppression & warming subsurface temps in the West Pacific at the end of the animation. #lolmodoki #ElNino

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/960865260034035712

[cycloneye]

So far in Febuary it has been negative the daily SOI index.

Code: Select all

1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95
3 Feb 2018   1004.90   1006.25   -29.25   6.38   4.51
4 Feb 2018   1006.55   1006.45   -22.29   5.84   4.22
5 Feb 2018   1006.06   1005.45   -19.84   5.74   3.96
6 Feb 2018   1005.29   1006.20   -27.14   5.33   3.46
7 Feb 2018   1005.02   1006.10   -27.95   4.74   3.03

[cycloneye]

CPC January update has La Niña lasting until the Spring and by then Neutral conditions will prevail.The question is if El Niño will appear in the Summer especially by ASO. Watch the El Niño number every month at the second thursdays when these monthly updates are released.

ASO 2018 26% 46% 28%

Remains at 28% for El Niño by ASO but Neutral is down from 49% that was in January to 46% now.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
08 February 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season).

During January 2018, La Niña was evident in the pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly index values were close to -1.0°C in the Niño-1+2, Niño-3, and Niño-3.4 regions, while the western-most Niño-4 region was -0.5°C [Fig. 2]. While negative anomalies were maintained near the surface, the sub-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean returned to near average during the last month [Fig. 3]. This was due to the eastward propagation of above-average temperatures in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave, which undercut the below-average temperatures near the surface [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with suppressed convection near and east of the International Date Line and enhanced convection around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, the low-level trade winds remained stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level winds were anomalously westerly. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña.

Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2018 [Fig. 6]. The forecast consensus also favors a transition during the spring with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions thereafter. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season) (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

Code: Select all

CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities
Season   La Niña   Neutral   El Niño
JFM 2018   87%   13%   0%
FMA 2018   60%   40%   0%
MAM 2018   43%   54%   3%
AMJ 2018   32%   61%   7%
MJJ 2018   27%   56%   17%
JJA 2018   25%   54%   21%
JAS 2018   25%   50%   25%
ASO 2018   26%   46%   28%
SON 2018   27%   40%   33%

[cycloneye]

As always,CPC does great blogs about the latest analysis of ENSO after the monthly updates are out.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... date-tuned