ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9441 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 22, 2018 2:43 pm

The May, 2018, Eurosip ENSO 3.4 SST anomaly forecast through October was released today:

https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-gre ... 2H4fDD.png

. I have it near +0.35 or warm neutral rather than weak El Nino for ASO averaged out. Based on what I've found to be a significant warm bias in the Eurosip, I'm now expecting no warmer than warm neutral for ASO despite a solidly warm subsurface that is now starting to rewarm slowly. Because of this warm bias and because we're still cold neutral, I can't yet count out cold neutral for ASO though I'm thinking warm neutral has the best chance right now due to the warm subsurface and since 5 of the 13 Eurosip forecasts turned out accurate. I still think it MAY get to weak to possibly low end moderate El Nino status by late fall or early winter, especially if the warm subsurface holds or warms.

I found this warm bias by looking at how the ASO 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts made in the preceding May by Eurosip verified:

Year: Eurosip's May fcast verification for ASO 3.4
2017: 1.1 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2016: 0.1 warmer (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
2015: 0.1 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2013: 0.5 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2012: 0.9 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
2011: 1.1 cooler (moderate La Niña occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
2010: 0.9 cooler (strong La Niña occurred vs weak La Niña prediction)
2009: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2008: 0.8 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
2007: 0.2 cooler (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
2005: 0.4 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)

So, of the 13 May forecasts for ASO, 5 were correctly predicted while 3 were one category too warm, 4 were two categories too warm, and 1 was three categories too warm. None were any categories too cold! The average was 0.5 too warm or one category too warm.

Out of the 7 Eurosip El Niño predictions for ASO in the preceding May, only 3 verified. In contrast, Eurosip predicted only 3 La Niñas in ASO but 4 occurred.

Of the 3 warm neutral predictions, 2 ended up one category too warm while 1 ended up three categories too warm. Of the 5 weak El Niño predictions, 2 ended up verifying correctly while 1 was one category too warm and 2 were two categories too warm.

Out of the 13 predictions, weak El Niño was clearly the most common prediction (5) while warm neutral was 2nd most common (3). Next was weak La Niña (2). The remainder were each predicted once: strong El Niño, moderate El Niño, and moderate La Niña. There were no cold neutral or strong La Niña predictions though 4 cold neutral occurred (the most of any category) and one strong La Niña occurred.

So, of the 13 May predictions for ASO, a whopping 10 were warmer than 0.0 while only 3 were colder. It turned out that only 5 were warmer than 0.0 while 8 were colder.

The average May Eurosip ASO 3.4 prog during 2005-17 was for +0.4 vs the -0.1 actual.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue May 22, 2018 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9442 Postby tolakram » Tue May 22, 2018 3:06 pm

I have not done the actual numbers, Larry, please! Anyway from just eyeballing previous years it seems cold neutral is the highest probability. Personally I still expect warm neutral, but no science behind that call. I just can't imagine all the warm water fading away. This was one of the key weeks last year when everyone realized nino was a bust.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9443 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 22, 2018 3:13 pm

tolakram wrote:I have not done the actual numbers, Larry, please! Anyway from just eyeballing previous years it seems cold neutral is the highest probability. Personally I still expect warm neutral, but no science behind that call. I just can't imagine all the warm water fading away. This was one of the key weeks last year when everyone realized nino was a bust.


Nino looks like it could be in play still, but it appears now it will be Modoki instead of traditional. There also is a possibility Nino just runs out of time to form, in my opinion
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9444 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 22, 2018 3:49 pm

NotSparta wrote:
tolakram wrote:I have not done the actual numbers, Larry, please! Anyway from just eyeballing previous years it seems cold neutral is the highest probability. Personally I still expect warm neutral, but no science behind that call. I just can't imagine all the warm water fading away. This was one of the key weeks last year when everyone realized nino was a bust.


Nino looks like it could be in play still, but it appears now it will be Modoki instead of traditional. There also is a possibility Nino just runs out of time to form, in my opinion


It's not always the case, but If we don't get an El Nino this year, the odds for an El Nino next year increase especially with the current subsurface activity.



https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/998872895722934273
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9445 Postby NotSparta » Tue May 22, 2018 5:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
tolakram wrote:I have not done the actual numbers, Larry, please! Anyway from just eyeballing previous years it seems cold neutral is the highest probability. Personally I still expect warm neutral, but no science behind that call. I just can't imagine all the warm water fading away. This was one of the key weeks last year when everyone realized nino was a bust.


Nino looks like it could be in play still, but it appears now it will be Modoki instead of traditional. There also is a possibility Nino just runs out of time to form, in my opinion


It's not always the case, but If we don't get an El Nino this year, the odds for an El Nino next year increase especially with the current subsurface activity.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/998872895722934273[tweet]


While I agree due to statistics, you never know what could happen in the subsurface. It's like saying the MDR in the ATL will be warm still this year because last year was too. I still think one will try to eke in during fall sometime
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9446 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 22, 2018 5:42 pm

Regarding the pressure pattern for the next week and the ending of June based on the Euro:

We could squeeze out a couple of negative values on the SOI today and the next couple of days. Then some potentially sharp positives from the 24th to 26th. Then starting on the 27th, the Euro has been consistent in showing a pretty drastic fall on the SOI to start June with very high pressures over Darwin. It even shows 1014-1015mb pressures over Darwin. The CFS backs up the Euro since it shows a 2 week long WWB event over the CPAC around the beginning of June:

Image


But all this is forecast to happen while the Euro has the MJO entering phases 4 and 5. I'm assuming the models are picking up on the MJO not sitting in phases 4/5 for too long and ending ending up in the WPAC/EPAC with phases 6/7/8. If the MJO sits in phases 4/5 and amplifies it's almost certain to be a El Nino cancel due to the strong likelihood of the easterlies returning and cooling the Nino regions. If it gets to phases 6/7/8 and amplifies (as it has been doing since the beginning of the year) then we're likely headed to an El Nino since there's a warm subsurface pool waiting for favorable atmospheric conditions.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9447 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 23, 2018 3:49 pm

12z Euro continues to show an abrupt shift in the pressure pattern favoring a negative SOI starting on May 27 and into the beginning of June. Entirely possible we see another CPAC centered WWB for at least the first two weeks of June. This probably will be the last try to get an El Nino going before ASO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9448 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 4:20 pm

:uarrow: last-ditch effort to move the warm pool and get a traditional Nino?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9449 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 2:02 am

NotSparta wrote::uarrow: last-ditch effort to move the warm pool and get a traditional Nino?


To be fair, the warm pool has been moving quite a bit in May. We have very healthy +1C anomalies (and +2C anomalies not too far behind) building at or just under the surface from 140W to 95W. The winds just need to become supportive and Nino 3.4, 3, and 1+2 will shootup quickly.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9450 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 5:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow: last-ditch effort to move the warm pool and get a traditional Nino?


To be fair, the warm pool has been moving quite a bit in May. We have very healthy +1C anomalies (and +2C anomalies not too far behind) building at or just under the surface from 140W to 95W. The winds just need to become supportive and Nino 3.4, 3, and 1+2 will shootup quickly.


The real core with +3C (and +4C anomalies in some graphics) has not moved. The eastern edges may have moved, but the entire thing in general has not since March. It is actually now a textbook Modoki warm pool now. Would support my thoughts for the CPAC being the most active NHem basin relative to average
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9451 Postby JPmia » Thu May 24, 2018 8:49 am

If we are entering a Modoki El Nino, how does this typically affect the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9452 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu May 24, 2018 8:51 am

CFS is going more aggressive with El Nino

Image


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9453 Postby LarryWx » Thu May 24, 2018 9:02 am

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow: last-ditch effort to move the warm pool and get a traditional Nino?


To be fair, the warm pool has been moving quite a bit in May. We have very healthy +1C anomalies (and +2C anomalies not too far behind) building at or just under the surface from 140W to 95W. The winds just need to become supportive and Nino 3.4, 3, and 1+2 will shootup quickly.


The real core with +3C (and +4C anomalies in some graphics) has not moved. The eastern edges may have moved, but the entire thing in general has not since March. It is actually now a textbook Modoki warm pool now. Would support my thoughts for the CPAC being the most active NHem basin relative to average


The latest Eurosip for ASO agrees that the CPAC will be the most active vs average:

https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-gre ... syXjkb.png
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9454 Postby Icybubba » Thu May 24, 2018 10:21 am

NOAA is calling for ENSO-Neutral this Hurricane Season Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9455 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 10:33 am

Icybubba wrote:NOAA is calling for ENSO-Neutral this Hurricane Season Image


They do say there's a possibility of weak El Nino but I'm not sure they quite believe it
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9456 Postby Icybubba » Thu May 24, 2018 10:35 am

NotSparta wrote:
Icybubba wrote:NOAA is calling for ENSO-Neutral this Hurricane Season Image


They do say there's a possibility of weak El Nino but I'm not sure they quite believe it

I wouldn't discount the possibility, but it is very unlikely, at least by peak season, I do believe however that by November we could see a weak El Nino
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9457 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 2:44 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow: last-ditch effort to move the warm pool and get a traditional Nino?


To be fair, the warm pool has been moving quite a bit in May. We have very healthy +1C anomalies (and +2C anomalies not too far behind) building at or just under the surface from 140W to 95W. The winds just need to become supportive and Nino 3.4, 3, and 1+2 will shootup quickly.


The real core with +3C (and +4C anomalies in some graphics) has not moved. The eastern edges may have moved, but the entire thing in general has not since March. It is actually now a textbook Modoki warm pool now. Would support my thoughts for the CPAC being the most active NHem basin relative to average


It looks like it's not moving, but it's continually feeding the eastern portion of the sub surface pool. Because the trades are relaxed over the EPAC, you can see +3C anomalies under 120W on the buoys and on the high resolution snapshot of the subsurface:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9458 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 2:47 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:CFS is going more aggressive with El Nino

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180524/a6171ee24d92fe0ab5190367dca08e42.gif[img]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Certainly has, looks like it now has a weak El Nino for ASO:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9459 Postby NDG » Thu May 24, 2018 5:08 pm

We put a lot of research into today's long range note slides which are now available to our clients. Specifically targeting the evolution of the MJO/GWO and the big impact they will have on the pattern moving into June. #AGwx


https://twitter.com/BretWaltsWx/status/999663764751507456

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9460 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 6:05 pm

:uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.
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