ENSO: CPC December update: La Niña thru mid/late spring/Neutral after that

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8661 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:04 pm

NCDC PDO index warmed up to -0.21 For September. So it looks like the positive run will continue on JISAO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8662 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:30 pm

Another round of trades en route:

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Though they continue to be west of the dateline.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8663 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:35 am

0.0C this week. With the discussion of El Nino then La Nina, neither may hold enough and in the end just be neutral afterall in the Ocean. The cold anomalies are tilted very far east off South America.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8664 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:05 pm

It's quite interesting that all of a sudden it's so hard to get a conventional La Nina event. The atmosphere has been in a La Nina state since the beginning of the year (although this is debatable), yet there's nothing to show for it -- as we should be on our way to a 2nd La Nina event historically speaking. The strong 2014-2015 El Nino seems to have changed/tilted something.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8665 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:It's quite interesting that all of a sudden it's so hard to get a conventional La Nina event. The atmosphere has been in a La Nina state since the beginning of the year (although this is debatable), yet there's nothing to show for it -- as we should be on our way to a 2nd La Nina event historically speaking. The strong 2014-2015 El Nino seems to have changed/tilted something.


Perhaps the positive PDO has more to do with this than we thought??


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8666 Postby Tornado_1257 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:37 pm

CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8667 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:35 am

Jisao PDO index for Sept rose to +0.32. Streak is now 45 consecutive months.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8668 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:30 am

Tornado_1257 wrote:CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf


1984-1985 is the only other Nina that started so late SON. This SON likely won't make the trimonthly requirement because of the warming in September and early Oct. Only a little over 2 months left in the year and 3 months is needed for a trimonthly with 5 consecutive unbroken trimonthlies to make an ENSO event. The math is an uphill battle unless the weeklies start reading -1C+ the whole way

But thats the official way it is declared via Ocean. Atmospherically Nina forcing has been more often than not this year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8669 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:Jisao PDO index for Sept rose to +0.32. Streak is now 45 consecutive months.


JMA is at 44 months un-broken as well.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8670 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:59 pm

GFS continues to show a massive trade burst in all Nino regions:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8671 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:44 am

Ntxw wrote:
Tornado_1257 wrote:CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf


1984-1985 is the only other Nina that started so late SON. This SON likely won't make the trimonthly requirement because of the warming in September and early Oct. Only a little over 2 months left in the year and 3 months is needed for a trimonthly with 5 consecutive unbroken trimonthlies to make an ENSO event. The math is an uphill battle unless the weeklies start reading -1C+ the whole way

But thats the official way it is declared via Ocean. Atmospherically Nina forcing has been more often than not this year.


It looks like cooling in 3.4 has resumed in a big way per TAO & this is being supported by a solid +SOI & cool subsfc. So, La Niña could very well be on our doorstep. I can't even yet eliminate the chance for moderate Niña though I favor weak as of now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8672 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:55 am

Significant drop this week back to -0.5C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8673 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:31 am

Ntxw wrote:Significant drop this week back to -0.5C


A one week cooling of 0.5 in Nino 3.4 is a big deal as there have been only two faster coolings in one week there since at least 1990, -0.6 last year in June and -0.7 in June of 1998. There was a 0.5 cooling in Oct of 2007.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8674 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:48 am

LarryWx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Tornado_1257 wrote:CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf


1984-1985 is the only other Nina that started so late SON. This SON likely won't make the trimonthly requirement because of the warming in September and early Oct. Only a little over 2 months left in the year and 3 months is needed for a trimonthly with 5 consecutive unbroken trimonthlies to make an ENSO event. The math is an uphill battle unless the weeklies start reading -1C+ the whole way

But thats the official way it is declared via Ocean. Atmospherically Nina forcing has been more often than not this year.


It looks like cooling in 3.4 has resumed in a big way per TAO & this is being supported by a solid +SOI & cool subsfc. So, La Niña could very well be on our doorstep. I can't even yet eliminate the chance for moderate Niña though I favor weak as of now.


Had we stayed in ERSSTv4 I would be assured the Nina would fit the requirement as JAS on it was -0.5C. On the new official ERSSTv5 it is only -0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8675 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:15 am

Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C

Image

The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA

I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8676 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:14 am

Will be -0.8C this week at the update
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8677 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/11scfax.png[img]

The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA

I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.


You think the CPC will declare a La Nina regardless of the tri-monthlies?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8678 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:10 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/11scfax.png[img]

The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA

I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.


You think the CPC will declare a La Nina regardless of the tri-monthlies?


They will only declare if the trimonthlies qualify. 2014 is a prime example of so close (at the time)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8679 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:30 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8680 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:44 am

I really enjoy the ENSO forecast attempts and discussion of the science. But I think the scientific community needs to admit they cannot forecast ENSO. Not necessarily on this board, but on other big boards there was nothing but El Niño wishcasting through about March 2017. Even by June we had big names holding on to their Nino predictions. I suppose El Niño brings bigger snow totals for the cold weather climate folks.
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