ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Moderate signal from the Euro that the SOI will tank after August 2 through August 9. Nino 3 has warmed up again, but the damage may already be done.

[WeatherEmperor]

Before some of you brush off the CFS, I must say that for the May 2017 update it had 3.4 hovering around +0.5C during June-July...which verified. It did not have pin point accuracy but it was correct in that. Now it shows cool-neutral for Sept/Oct. I think later today or tomorrow the CFS position on the graph will update to reflect 3.4 for being at 0.0C. We are way past the Spring Barrier so it shod be pretty accurate now.

Chances for El Nino for Summer 2017 have diminished to near zero. There may be a possibility for it to make a comeback in Fall/Winter but even that now appears to be a small chance.


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[gatorcane]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170801/64a40fdb446ebce984b5fc26a54dec6f.gif

Before some of you brush off the CFS, I must say that for the May 2017 update it had 3.4 hovering around +0.5C during June-July...which verified. It did not have pin point accuracy but it was correct in that. Now it shows cool-neutral for Sept/Oct. I think later today or tomorrow the CFS position on the graph will update to reflect 3.4 for being at 0.0C. We are way past the Spring Barrier so it shod be pretty accurate now.

Chances for El Nino for Summer 2017 have diminished to near zero. There may be a possibility for it to make a comeback in Fall/Winter but even that now appears to be a small chance.


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I am not surprised of El Nino not materializing. Chances of getting one just two years after the last El Nino are really slim to none looking at climatology.

[tolakram]

Why do we even look at the CFSv2? Does it have any skill scores we can look at? I know, that sounded a bit harsh.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170801/64a40fdb446ebce984b5fc26a54dec6f.gif[img]

Before some of you brush off the CFS, I must say that for the May 2017 update it had 3.4 hovering around +0.5C during June-July...which verified. It did not have pin point accuracy but it was correct in that. Now it shows cool-neutral for Sept/Oct. I think later today or tomorrow the CFS position on the graph will update to reflect 3.4 for being at 0.0C. We are way past the Spring Barrier so it shod be pretty accurate now.

Chances for El Nino for Summer 2017 have diminished to near zero. There may be a possibility for it to make a comeback in Fall/Winter but even that now appears to be a small chance.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I was very critical of the CFS and although I feel it's still a questionable model, it did a darn good job in predicting the fall @ Nino 3.4. But come NDJ it will be predicting a super El Nino for 2018 as it seemingly does that every year.

[Kingarabian]

SOI still looks inconclusive for the first week of August. We'll see an average of 1013.50 at Tahiti in the first week.

[Kingarabian]

Today we may see a negative on the SOI, the first in a while. If it indeed comes in as a negative, according to models, today will be the start of a string of negatives that will last potentially up to 8 days. Per the 12z Euro, Tahiti will average at most 1013.75 till August 9 at the same time the average @ Darwin will be 1013.50. This means that the trades will be relaxed for a while. Also correlates with latest CFS member runs that are trending back warmer @ Nino 3.4.

[WeatherEmperor]

Today we may see a negative on the SOI, the first in a while. If it indeed comes in as a negative, according to models, today will be the start of a string of negatives that will last potentially up to 8 days. Per the 12z Euro, Tahiti will average at most 1013.75 till August 9 at the same time the average @ Darwin will be 1013.50. This means that the trades will be relaxed for a while. Also correlates with latest CFS member runs that are trending back warmer @ Nino 3.4.

This is why I still think there is a chance to see El Nino for Fall/Winter...because that is the season when El Nino events typically strengthen.


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[Kingarabian]

Today we may see a negative on the SOI, the first in a while. If it indeed comes in as a negative, according to models, today will be the start of a string of negatives that will last potentially up to 8 days. Per the 12z Euro, Tahiti will average at most 1013.75 till August 9 at the same time the average @ Darwin will be 1013.50. This means that the trades will be relaxed for a while. Also correlates with latest CFS member runs that are trending back warmer @ Nino 3.4.

This is why I still think there is a chance to see El Nino for Fall/Winter...because that is the season when El Nino events typically strengthen.


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Good point.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is warming again and currently @ +0.4C

[NDG]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is warming again and currently @ +0.4C

http://i.imgur.com/jaYYOHd.gif

Yes it has warmed up but I don't think is at +0.4C as you think it is, probably more like +0.1C or +0.2C, IMO. Notice that the immediate equatorial waters have continued to cool down with strong easterlies continuing.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is warming again and currently @ +0.4C

http://i.imgur.com/jaYYOHd.gif

Yes it has warmed up but I don't think is at +0.4C as you think it is, probably more like +0.1C or +0.2C, IMO. Notice that the immediate equatorial waters have continued to cool down with strong easterlies continuing.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/F1jj54a.png[img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/zMaSB9c.png[img]

I thought if the numerical contour crosses across the equator @ 140W + warm Nino 3 support would be the current 5 days average? I see that the immediate equatorial waters are still cool, but that same body of water would be at +0.6C+ to +0.8C with a > +0.5C numerical contour across the equator @ 140W yet the CPC would go with a lower average.

The graphics you displayed above showing the difference between this week and last week shows that this week, Nino 3 is considerably warmer with anomalies pushed further west spilling into 140W.

Example:

3 weeks ago the buoys showed +1.0C @ the immediate waters and +0.8C above the equator we thought the weekly reading would be +0.7C to +0.8C yet the CPC had +0.6C.

2 weeks ago we thought the weekly reading would come in at +0.5C with sustained warming north and south of the equator yet the CPC had +0.4C.

[Kingarabian]

NCDC has a -0.41 for July. So +0.40-0.60 from JISAO.

[weathaguyry]

NCDC has a -0.41 for July. So +0.40-0.60 from JISAO.

That's a pretty good drop from the +0.8 in June

[euro6208]

First time i read this thread in 2 months. I knew El nino wouldn't make it but kinda surprised that maybe a possible La nina later?

[Kingarabian]

Boy did the Euro bust on the SOI tanking..

[weathaguyry]

Yeah, subsurface is now really cooling, and SOI is showing no signs of tanking anytime soon, so the JJA trimontly is not looking like it will be +0.5C, probably more like +0.3 or 0.4C depending on what the weeklies are throughout August

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, subsurface is now really cooling, and SOI is showing no signs of tanking anytime soon, so the JJA trimontly is not looking like it will be +0.5C, probably more like +0.3 or 0.4C depending on what the weeklies are throughout August

Yeah increasingly unlikely at this point.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw Kingarabian ,Where do you think the CPC Monday's update will be in Nino 3.4? 0.0C of last week or lower? I say it stays at 0.0C.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw Kingarabian ,Where do you think the CPC Monday's update will be in Nino 3.4? 0.0C of last week or lower? I say it stays at 0.0C.

Hard to tell. Anywhere from 0.0 to +0.3 I would think. Waters above and below the equator (5N/5S) are +0.5C. However exactly at the equator they're no more than +0.2C.