ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hamburgerman7070]

Hi guys. I'm not inept like y'all are with this niño stuff. What do we want to see for a better likelihood of warm neutral-weak niño before winter and how likely is it to happen?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Appears the height anom has been creeping east with the warmer pool from the k/w forcing.

[Kingarabian]

Warm sub-surface pool continues to strengthen and expand due to the continued effects of the strong downwelling Kelvin wave. This warm sub-surface pool does not compare to 2017 at all. Last year, the warm pool was not that warm, with anomaly temps ranging from +1C to +2.5C. This year we're already seeing anomalies close to +5C.

[cycloneye]

The CPC update of 2/26/18 has Niño 3.4 going down to -1.1C Last Monday it was at -1.0C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[CyclonicFury]

La Niña continues on. The downwelling Kelvin Wave will likely cause the warm pool to keep strengthening, but it would likely take a significant westerly wind burst to actually initiate an El Niño event. What could happen is the warm pool doesn’t expand much more, ENSO-Neutral prevails this year, and we see a Strong El Niño for 2019-20.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Keep an eye on the Pacific in the coming months. A downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has developed. This ocean wave is going to weaken or break down the La Nina base state that been locked in since late 2016 but still unclear if it will create El Nino conditions for Summer.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/968144874464784385

[Kingarabian]

La Niña continues on. The downwelling Kelvin Wave will likely cause the warm pool to keep strengthening, but it would likely take a significant westerly wind burst to actually initiate an El Niño event. What could happen is the warm pool doesn’t expand much more, ENSO-Neutral prevails this year, and we see a Strong El Niño for 2019-20.

Another strong WWB would propel us into an El Nino, but It's actually going to take a strong trade burst to halt the warm sub-surface pool. We'll need a few more frames to confirm, but this sub-surface pool already looks strong enough to flip ENSO into warm neutral at the very least.

[WeatherEmperor]

La Niña continues on. The downwelling Kelvin Wave will likely cause the warm pool to keep strengthening, but it would likely take a significant westerly wind burst to actually initiate an El Niño event. What could happen is the warm pool doesn’t expand much more, ENSO-Neutral prevails this year, and we see a Strong El Niño for 2019-20.

Another strong WWB would propel us into an El Nino, but It's actually going to take a strong trade burst to halt the warm sub-surface pool. We'll need a few more frames to confirm, but this sub-surface pool already looks strong enough to flip ENSO into warm neutral at the very least.

Do the models show any WWB on the horizon? This latest subsurface is definitely strong enough to flip the ENSO positive in a big way.


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[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/968206383404298241

[cycloneye]

I am sure that next Monday's CPC update will be up from that -1.1C.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

La Niña continues on. The downwelling Kelvin Wave will likely cause the warm pool to keep strengthening, but it would likely take a significant westerly wind burst to actually initiate an El Niño event. What could happen is the warm pool doesn’t expand much more, ENSO-Neutral prevails this year, and we see a Strong El Niño for 2019-20.

Another strong WWB would propel us into an El Nino, but It's actually going to take a strong trade burst to halt the warm sub-surface pool. We'll need a few more frames to confirm, but this sub-surface pool already looks strong enough to flip ENSO into warm neutral at the very least.

Do the models show any WWB on the horizon? This latest subsurface is definitely strong enough to flip the ENSO positive in a big way.


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There should be another k/w. The Indian monsoon when it kicks off is driven by a kw&wwb,
annual event

[cycloneye]

The Australians update of 2/27/18 has La Niña retreating and Neutral comming by March and going thru July.

La Niña retreats
La Niña continues its decline, with sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean warming over the past fortnight. Most models indicate a return to neutral conditions is likely early in the southern autumn.

The decline of this La Niña is evident in oceanic and atmospheric patterns, with several indicators recently returning to levels more consistent with a neutral ENSO phase. Sea surface temperatures are very close to neutral levels, cloudiness near the Date Line has increased, and trade winds are generally near normal across the equatorial Pacific. However, the current pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been strong, and the effects of wind variations associated with it is likely to have amplified the decline. As the MJO progresses east, its effect will reverse, meaning some La Niña indicators are likely to strengthen briefly.

Four of eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau maintain La Niña values through March. By May, only one model still exceeds La Niña thresholds. For July, all eight are within the neutral range. This ENSO event has had relatively little effect on Australian rainfall patterns over the 2017–18 summer.



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[weathaguyry]

The POAMA was one of the few models that predicted a La Nina last year, so it is something to watch

[wxman57]

The POAMA was one of the few models that predicted a La Nina last year, so it is something to
watch

That statement is incorrect. POAMA predicted a moderate to strong El Nino this time last February (see below). The forecast was WAY off. Here's a link to their past forecasts. It wasn't until last May 23rd that they predicted cooler-than normal temps in Nino 3.4.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive.shtml

[Kingarabian]

La Niña continues on. The downwelling Kelvin Wave will likely cause the warm pool to keep strengthening, but it would likely take a significant westerly wind burst to actually initiate an El Niño event. What could happen is the warm pool doesn’t expand much more, ENSO-Neutral prevails this year, and we see a Strong El Niño for 2019-20.

Another strong WWB would propel us into an El Nino, but It's actually going to take a strong trade burst to halt the warm sub-surface pool. We'll need a few more frames to confirm, but this sub-surface pool already looks strong enough to flip ENSO into warm neutral at the very least.

Do the models show any WWB on the horizon? This latest subsurface is definitely strong enough to flip the ENSO positive in a big way.


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The Euro has been pretty inconsistent for the past couple of days on what it wants in terms of pressure over Tahiti and Darwin. Here are my "refined" pressures for the first week of March based on the 12Z Euro (note: the actual pressures can be different than mine):

Code: Select all

Tahiti            Darwin            
Feb 28: 1012            Feb 28:  1007.75       
March 1: 1012.75      March 1: 1007.50
March 2: 1013         March 2: 1007
March 3: 1012.50      March 3: 1007.50
March 4: 1012.00      March 4: 1007.50
March 5: 1010.75      March 5: 1006.25
March 6: 1010         March 6: 1005.50
March 7: 1011         March 7: 1005


The Euro drops Tahiti's MSLP quite a bit from the 1015's we've been seeing. However, there's a lot of question in how low the pressures will really be over Darwin because of a potential tropical low developing near Darwin and its exact track is up in the air. So we should see positive SOI values persist for the first week of March, but there is a realistic chance that the SOI flips negative afterwards. So the 30 day average should remain in negative territory,

Just to refresh, usually when the SOI flips positive for an extended period of time, you would expect the trades to dominate. When you see the SOI flip negative for an extended period of time, that means the trades are relaxed across the equator and there's potential for winds to change direction and move west to east.

It's 40% chance IMO whether we'll see another WWB. Trade's are always favored because that's the way the winds blow naturally across the equator. If the SOI fails to switch back to negative, we could easily see a trade burst take control over across the equator. But there's a solid chance we see a follow up WWB as the MJO setup is favorable compared to last year. But regardless, the downwelling Kelvin Wave should continue to strengthen the warm sub-surface pool in the meanwhile since there's nothing in the immediate future to disturb the process.

[Kingarabian]

Warming of Nino 1+2, just off of Peru has returned, for the second year in a row. This goes against conventional ENSO knowledge that warming initiates west -> east vs. east -> west... which this strange warming is signaling...

[weathaguyry]

The POAMA was one of the few models that predicted a La Nina last year, so it is something to
watch

That statement is incorrect. POAMA predicted a moderate to strong El Nino this time last February (see below). The forecast was WAY off. Here's a link to their past forecasts. It wasn't until last May 23rd that they predicted cooler-than normal temps in Nino 3.4.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive.shtml

http://wxman57.com/images/POAMA.JPG

Yes that was my mistake I had recalled them calling for colder temps for the winter in the late summer, but I did not realize that at this time last year they were calling for a Nino

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Paul Roundy
‏

@PaulRoundy1
3h3 hours ago
More
Elements of rapid El Niño transition are developing. Some will be offset by moderate MJO surge in the trade winds, but new westerlies likely to return during the second half of March. Big event possible but far from assured.

[Ntxw]

+4C anomalies have made an appearance below the dateline per TAO. IF there is a WWB second half of March then the conversation will change very quickly. At this time last year, there was no such warm pool induced KW

[cycloneye]

+4C anomalies have made an appearance below the dateline per TAO. IF there is a WWB second half of March then the conversation will change very quickly. At this time last year, there was no such warm pool induced KW

That warmup at Niño 1+2 will not spread westward?