ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NotSparta]

CPC Weekly update of 7/16/18 has Niño 3.4 going down to +0.2C and that is down from the +0.4C that was for the past 2 weeks. Is this a brief setback towards El Niño comming by fall or Winter or is a definite trend of some cooling going on?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

I think it's brief, while conditions aren't quite optimal anymore, indicators point to continued warming, and the cooling is likely due to an MJO-induced EWB.

[LarryWx]

This is not the SST profile one would expect for developing El Nino in July.

Not all El Niño’s are the same. Some come on faster, some slower. What is happening in the subsurface and in the atmosphere is more important. Most indications lean toward an oncoming El Niño.

The subsurface has been holding pretty steady near +0.9 the last couple of weeks. That, alone, means good chance at El Niño per ONI definition starting later this year per history though it is still too early to bet the ranch on that based on 1989 and 2012, both of which had a similar July OHC (near +0.8) and failed to reach El Niño. 2012, especially, says don’t bet the ranch yet because it had a very similar 3.4 SST whereas 1989 was quite a bit cooler and is, therefore, not a good analog.
Since 1979, 10 July OHCs were +0.7+. Of those 10, 8 were either already El Niño or headed to El Niño later in the year. Only 1989 and 2012 failed.

[CyclonicFury]

While I still think we will probably see a Niño, it will probably be weak and after ASO. In terms of Niño 3.4 SSTA, 2018 is well behind most recent Niños including 2002, 2004, 2009 and 2015. ONI should definitely remain in the neutral range through at least JJA and likely JAS.

[WeatherEmperor]

The POAMA pretty much stands alone as the ensemble mean calls for near 0.0C in the coming months.




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[cycloneye]

POAMA being one of the best ENSO models not showing El Niño thru April 2019 is big news.

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow: POAMA being one of the best ENSO models not showing El Niño thru April 2019 is big news.

I think its prediction is probably too cold but unless we get a strong WWB I have a hard time believing El Niño will set in soon. I could see a slowly warming Niño 3.4 region into the fall, mainly based on the strong subsurface warm pool.

[weathaguyry]

That’s my thinking too, I think we’ll hold steady around 0.3-0.4 through JAS, and cross 0.5 sometime in the fall, with the temperature possibly peaking at 0.7-0.9 in the winter, although this is solely speculation, and it is highly dependent on if we get another WWB or downwelling Kelvin Waves that add to the warm pool, it will be interesting to see how this evolves

[SFLcane]

After a few weeks of sea surface temps in Nino3.4 encroaching on #ElNiño territory, they've cooled a bit. Does this affect the El Niño odds for the rest of the year? Follow along #IRIforecast at 2 EDT today for the latest updates from our monthly briefing.

https://twitter.com/climatesociety/stat ... 82849?s=21

[cycloneye]

@climatesociety
Even though the winds aren’t looking very #ElNiño-like, there’s still plenty of warm water below the surface. Need winds to kick in for El Niño to manifest. Do the models think this will happen? #IRIforecast

 https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/1020011557764378625

[SFLcane]

Different tune...

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1020023751264690178

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/egawthrop/status/1020008801376833536

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/egawthrop/status/1020008801376833536[tweet]

The atmospheric part of this potential event hasn't even shown a stir of an #ElNiño event.

Don't understand how they''re using the past 5 days to gauge the entire atmosphere's status for the past 5 months.

[LarryWx]

Has anyone been following the monthly eq. Pacific International dateline vicinity (160E to 160W OLR)? The AMJ period added up for 2018 just set a record high for AMJ of +49.9 (records back to 1975)! What's the significance of this? There is a pretty good correlation of +OLR with an oncoming La Nina! El Nino tends to be associated with -OLR. Here are the top 10 anomalies per this link's table of anomalies for AMJ added up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

Rank Year OLR Oncoming ENSO
1. 2018 +49.9 ??
2. 1975 +48.5 LN
3. 1985 +37.5 NN
4. 2008 +38.1 LN
5. 2000 +35.7 LN
6. 1999 +35.2 LN
7. 1984 +34.7 LN
8. 1989 +26.2 N
9. 1988 +25.7 LN
10. 2013 +24.6 NN

So, if 2018 were to proceed to El Nino later this year, it would be very unique going at least back to 1975 as far as OLR is concerned. OLR has consistently been high each of the last 3 months with April 2nd highest, May 3rd highest, and June 2nd highest! What is going on here? I'd love to hear some thoughts about this craziness.

[NotSparta]

Has anyone been following the monthly eq. Pacific International dateline vicinity (160E to 160W OLR? The AMJ period added up for 2018 just set a record high for AMJ of +49.9 (records back to 1975)! What's the significance of this? There is a pretty good correlation of +OLR with an oncoming La Nina! El Nino tends to be associaied with -OLR. Here are the top 10 anomalies per this link's table of anomalies for AMJ added up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

Rank Year OLR Oncoming ENSO
1. 2018 +49.9 ??
2. 1975 +48.5 LN
3. 1985 +37.5 NN
4. 2008 +38.1 LN
5. 2000 +35.7 LN
6. 1999 +35.2 LN
7. 1984 +34.7 LN
8. 1989 +26.2 N
9. 1988 +25.7 LN
10. 2013 +24.6 NN

So, if 2018 were to proceed to El Nino later this year, it would be very unique going at least back to 1975 as far as OLR is concerned. OLR has consistently been high each of the last 3 months with April 2nd highest, May 3rd highest, and June 2nd highest! What is going on here? I'd love to hear some thoughts about this craziness.

Seems to me that the atmosphere has been dragging its feet w/ the progression to Niño conditions, most of the indicators are still neutral, & the OLR seemingly still reflecting La Niña conditions.

[CyclonicFury]

SOI values are not quite there in terms of El Niño:

SOI values for 19 Jul, 2018
Average SOI for last 30 days -1.14
Average SOI for last 90 days -2.22
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 11.39

Unless the upcoming WWB quickly warms the Niño 3.4 to the Niño threshold, I cannot see CPC issuing the first El Niño advisory until September at the earliest.

[Kingarabian]

Has anyone been following the monthly eq. Pacific International dateline vicinity (160E to 160W OLR? The AMJ period added up for 2018 just set a record high for AMJ of +49.9 (records back to 1975)! What's the significance of this? There is a pretty good correlation of +OLR with an oncoming La Nina! El Nino tends to be associaied with -OLR. Here are the top 10 anomalies per this link's table of anomalies for AMJ added up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

Rank Year OLR Oncoming ENSO
1. 2018 +49.9 ??
2. 1975 +48.5 LN
3. 1985 +37.5 NN
4. 2008 +38.1 LN
5. 2000 +35.7 LN
6. 1999 +35.2 LN
7. 1984 +34.7 LN
8. 1989 +26.2 N
9. 1988 +25.7 LN
10. 2013 +24.6 NN

So, if 2018 were to proceed to El Nino later this year, it would be very unique going at least back to 1975 as far as OLR is concerned. OLR has consistently been high each of the last 3 months with April 2nd highest, May 3rd highest, and June 2nd highest! What is going on here? I'd love to hear some thoughts about this craziness.

Seems to me that the atmosphere has been dragging its feet w/ the progression to Niño conditions, most of the indicators are still neutral, & the OLR seemingly still reflecting La Niña conditions.

OLR is reflecting both La Nina and El Nino conditions:



In this graphic, Orange/Red in the MC and Blue in the EPAC favors typically favors an El Nino.
However, there's persistent deep blues in the MC as well. That by itself promotes La Nina. Personally, I haven't seen this setup before. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1019706553526640641

[Kingarabian]

Has anyone been following the monthly eq. Pacific International dateline vicinity (160E to 160W OLR? The AMJ period added up for 2018 just set a record high for AMJ of +49.9 (records back to 1975)! What's the significance of this? There is a pretty good correlation of +OLR with an oncoming La Nina! El Nino tends to be associaied with -OLR. Here are the top 10 anomalies per this link's table of anomalies for AMJ added up:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr

Rank Year OLR Oncoming ENSO
1. 2018 +49.9 ??
2. 1975 +48.5 LN
3. 1985 +37.5 NN
4. 2008 +38.1 LN
5. 2000 +35.7 LN
6. 1999 +35.2 LN
7. 1984 +34.7 LN
8. 1989 +26.2 N
9. 1988 +25.7 LN
10. 2013 +24.6 NN

So, if 2018 were to proceed to El Nino later this year, it would be very unique going at least back to 1975 as far as OLR is concerned. OLR has consistently been high each of the last 3 months with April 2nd highest, May 3rd highest, and June 2nd highest! What is going on here? I'd love to hear some thoughts about this craziness.

Speaking of the atmosphere, the SOI for June came in with:

Darwin June MSLP avg: 1013.70
Tahiti June MSLP avg: 1014.12

Based on Larry's numbers, Tahiti's June numbers support a moderate to strong La Nina, while Darwin's June numbers would support a strong El Nino.

The opposite has happened in July. Pressures near Darwin support a La Nina and pressures nearTahiti supports an El Nino.

[NotSparta]

SOI values are not quite there in terms of El Niño:

SOI values for 19 Jul, 2018
Average SOI for last 30 days -1.14
Average SOI for last 90 days -2.22
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 11.39

Unless the upcoming WWB quickly warms the Niño 3.4 to the Niño threshold, I cannot see CPC issuing the first El Niño advisory until September at the earliest.

WWB? I don't see any within the next week, at least at the equator

[Kingarabian]

2018's subsurface almost looks like a carbon copy of 2012's except that 2012 had a serious upwelling Kelvin wave at this point.

[LarryWx]

2018's subsurface almost looks like a carbon copy of 2012's except that 2012 had a serious upwelling Kelvin wave at this point.

2018 is eerily similar to 2012 not just in terms of subsurface and surface, but it also is similar in terms of a pretty solid negative June SOI/neutral July SOI. August of 2012 SOI went back to a pretty solid negative. Will 2018? OTOH, they aren't similar at all with regard to April-June OLR. Whereas 2012 was neutral, 2018 was the most positive of any year since at least 1975. Strongly +OLR in AMJ has a pretty good correlation to la Nina. 2012 is one of the main reasons I say not to yet bet the farm on El Nino later this year even though it is favored. Another reason is the record +OLR for AMJ. Based on that, alone, one could easily think La Nina is on the way.