ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12081 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:58 pm

Niño 3.4 sinking like the Titanic.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12082 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:34 pm

:uarrow: so is subsurface heat content

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12083 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:15 pm

Walker circulation remains enhanced.

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Big upwelling Kelvin wave showing up now. SOI has increased dramatically in recent weeks
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12084 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:59 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12085 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:04 pm

Crazy how fast things are swinging towards Nina!!!

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12086 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:59 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Crazy how fast things are swinging towards Nina!!!

https://i.imgur.com/glRScqG.png

Certainly, but it takes sometime for the surface temperatures to adjust.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12087 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:02 pm

SOI is already at moderate La Nina levels. The SOI is not fancy but its a very key indicator. Its rise preceded this quick pile up of cool anomalies at the subsurface.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12088 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:40 pm

:uarrow:

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12089 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jul 22, 2021 6:54 pm

June PDO was -1.18. Coolest value since July 2013.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12090 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:55 pm

Ah, I miss the good old early days of 2021 when people thought that a 2006-like repeat with ENSO was somewhat likely to occur...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12091 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:57 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Ah, I miss the good old early days of 2021 when people thought that a 2006-like repeat with ENSO was somewhat likely to occur...

It's really hard to predict ENSO. All options are on the table at the beginning of the year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12092 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:01 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:June PDO was -1.18. Coolest value since July 2013.


Link?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12093 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Ah, I miss the good old early days of 2021 when people thought that a 2006-like repeat with ENSO was somewhat likely to occur...

It's really hard to predict ENSO. All options are on the table at the beginning of the year.


And the Spring Barrier period does not help to have a good picture but we are well passed that and things look more clear.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12094 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:39 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:June PDO was -1.18. Coolest value since July 2013.


Link?


Found here: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12095 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:42 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:June PDO was -1.18. Coolest value since July 2013.


Link?


Found here: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO


https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt is what I had been using which gives slightly different data.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12096 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:36 am

Cold waters continue to expand at the subsurface of the Pacific.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12097 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 26, 2021 12:21 pm

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CFSV2 predicting a fairly solid weak La Nina by the end of this year
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12098 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 28, 2021 9:18 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12099 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Jul 28, 2021 3:25 pm

The daily SOI contribution is now 1.05, the lowest value since 2021-07-05.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12100 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 28, 2021 3:42 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:The daily SOI contribution is now 1.05, the lowest value since 2021-07-05.

Yeah the pressures are gonna be lower in Tahiti since the MJO is moving across the Pacific.
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