ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[LarryWx]

Strong indication of a -SOI tomorrow till the 12th. Lets see if itll be enough to bring the SOI further negative.

Regardless, the Tahiti SLPs are shown to rise to solidly above normal for a few days (1017+?) afterward and thus favors another period of solid +SOIs despite Darwin then rising to near 1014 to possibly to as much as near 1015.
I continue to notice a high SLP bias for the GFS at both locations.
We're now getting pretty far into July without a suggestion by model consensus of anywhere near the -9 of June for July absent a sudden -SOI change in the modeling or a dramatic change to strong -SOIs the last week of July. In fact, the chances for a mildly +SOI July are slowly growing right now imo.

[Kingarabian]

Strong indication of a -SOI tomorrow till the 12th. Lets see if itll be enough to bring the SOI further negative.

Regardless, the Tahiti SLPs are shown to rise to solidly above normal for a few days (1017+?) afterward and thus favors another period of solid +SOIs despite Darwin then rising to near 1014 to possibly to as much as near 1015.
I continue to notice a high SLP bias for the GFS at both locations.
We're now getting pretty far into July without a suggestion by model consensus of anywhere near the -9 of June for July absent a sudden -SOI change in the modeling or a dramatic change to strong -SOIs the last week of July. In fact, the chances for a mildly +SOI July are slowly growing right now imo.

Yeah, we're certainly running a fine line here.

However: The Euro has been trending towards a -SOI for next week, beginning at the end of next week with negatives from July 16th to July 19th.

[Ntxw]

Turns out Nino 3.4 will nudge down to 0.6C at the update

[Kingarabian]

Turns out Nino 3.4 will nudge down to 0.6C at the update

That's interesting considering that the buoys consistently showed 0.7C-0.8C this week.

[LarryWx]

Turns out Nino 3.4 will nudge down to 0.6C at the update

That's interesting considering that the buoys consistently showed 0.7C-0.8C this week.

This +0.6 is also a surprise to me since the map suggested a warming to near +0.8 last calendar week. However, it isn't a shocker because sometimes TAO can be misleading. This might be a good example of heavy interpolation between buoys there leading to misleading graphics since there are not many buoys. OTOH, Levi's graph averaged over last week suggested +0.5. So, the +0.6 is still +0.1 warmer than Levi's suggested #.

I'm assuming we'll be getting the July 1 Euro plume soon. That should be interesting as far as how it compares to June.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update text that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.6C and Nino 1+2 down to -0.3C.

[Kingarabian]

More western based but the warming that the Nino regions have seen since June has been serious.

[NDG]

Turns out Nino 3.4 will nudge down to 0.6C at the update

That's interesting considering that the buoys consistently showed 0.7C-0.8C this week.

Cooling over Nino 3 is the corporate once you average it out over Nino 3.4.

[Kingarabian]

Turns out Nino 3.4 will nudge down to 0.6C at the update

That's interesting considering that the buoys consistently showed 0.7C-0.8C this week.

Cooling over Nino 3 is the corporate once you average it out over Nino 3.4.

I thought they averaged out 5S - 5N @ 140W. But you're right, 3.4 does take into account the Nino regions 4 and 3.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is has 1017.5 to 1018mb over Tahiti on Thursday and Friday...

GFS 850mb hovmoller may be hinting at a trade burst on July 15th.

Euro continues to show the 3rd week of July being negative.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The Euro EPS is showing a stretch of extreme easterly trade winds across the IDL next week. GFS is less intense but also shows easterlies. This should continue to quell any El Nino through the fall.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro has been showing easterlies for the past week but each 5 day average ends up being neutral with no dominant easterlies or westerlies. No strong indicator, especially with the state of the SOI

StormVistaWxModels.com EPS upper wind analysis also showed a massive WWB when the SOI was trending positive (bad indicator of a WWB when the SOI is positive) in May and it did not verify.

Regardless of a trade burst or not, we've had numerous trade bursts since April and Nino 3.4 continues to to be @ +0.5C or higher. Doubt they'll make any difference. So any talk of no El Nino will continue to be proven wrong until the anomalies @ Nino 3.4 reflect that.

[Ntxw]

The Euro has been showing easterlies for the past week but each 5 day average ends up being neutral with no dominant easterlies or westerlies. No strong indicator, especially with the state of the SOI

StormVistaWxModels.com EPS upper wind analysis also showed a massive WWB when the SOI was trending positive (bad indicator of a WWB when the SOI is positive) in May and it did not verify.

Regardless of a trade burst or not, we've had numerous trade bursts since April and Nino 3.4 continues to to be @ +0.5C or higher. Doubt they'll make any difference. So any talk of no El Nino will continue to be proven wrong until the anomalies @ Nino 3.4 reflect that.

The trade bursts have been near the DL which will be the case here as well. Largely it develops a cold pool, but without the trades being more prevalent to the east, it's done little damage to the surface warmth in 3.4 region.

[Ntxw]

Here is an example last spring of damaging trades. It was strong at the DL and made way to effect 120W as well which is 3.4 territory.

[Kingarabian]

So at most it cools Nino 4 while the rest of the Nino regions warm.

[Kingarabian]

Latest TAO subsurface now shows +2C anomalies at 25 meters depth near 110W and east. So expect Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 to warm up quite a bit.

This trade burst may actually be a negative thing in regards to seeing TC activity in the GOM and the Caribbean. Because with Nino 4 potential cooling soon, Nino 3.4 warming or holding steady, and Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 warming, expect the Modoki look to be reversed into a traditional look. Meaning the walker cell will set up further east now.

[WeatherEmperor]

Latest CFS for Enso 3.4....whatever its worth




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

Latest CFS for Enso 3.4....whatever its worth




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Man. I don't know what to say about the CFS anymore.

[weathaguyry]

Looks like things are coming together for a weak modoki nino or a west based nino, only think holding it back is flip-flopping SOI and unsupportive subsurface temps, as well as a lack of WWB's, but nevertheless it looks to be surface based, which is very interesting, though it doesn't look to have any shear effects so far in the Atlantic, as in the basin as a whole, shear is running at or below average, very interesting to see the development of this El Nino

[Ntxw]

Yeah it's been pretty crazy. As noted before, we should not be anywhere near a Nino if going by historical perspective. Big Nino events (2015)are typically followed by multiple Nina events, so statistically speaking this year should have tilted for a second Nina. But that didn't happen, even in the face of trade bursts. Something in the background is not following the normal mantra, it could be the PDO but we've seen 2nd year Ninas before even within a +PDO period.