ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9361 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 12, 2018 8:24 pm

Latest subsurface frame also shows no new cold subsurface pools forming in the WPAC, with the current warm pool continuing to be enforced.

Image

Due to the strong westerlies, there will be probably be very little resistance as the warm anomalies build north of 50 meters, and the sub surface pool will likely expand and strengthen before the trades return (if they do).

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9362 Postby Shell Mound » Sun May 13, 2018 9:04 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9363 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun May 13, 2018 9:18 am

Shell Mound wrote:If El Niño continues to develop through late summer and early fall '18, then the prospects might favour a back-to-back event in '19:

SNIP - tolakram


Back-to-back El Niño events are quite rare. But when they do occur, the second year of El Niño is usually a strong to very strong event. I doubt we will see another very strong Niño so soon. I honestly think we may just stay warm neutral this year.
Last edited by tolakram on Mon May 14, 2018 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: remove long quote
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9364 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 13, 2018 4:41 pm

We're almost through with the spring barrier.

UKMET:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/995632311042486272


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9365 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 13, 2018 5:46 pm

12z Euro continues the trend of a reversal for its original forecast of a neutral SOI for May. By May 22, it has the SOI @ -2.5 for the month of May and high Darwin pressures/low Tahiti pressures returning. There's a realistic chance for May to close at -4/-5. Basically means all the blues and deep purples on the hovmollers (strong easterlies) over the dateline/CPAC coming on the GFS/Euro 850mb wind forecasts will likely disappear or not verify.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9366 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 14, 2018 6:46 am

Will be -0.1C at the update later this morning
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9367 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 14, 2018 10:43 am

CPC weekly update of 5/14/18 has Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C. It was at -0.2C in last Mondays update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 5/14/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C

#9368 Postby LarryWx » Mon May 14, 2018 11:21 am

:uarrow: Per this weekly report, the subsurface is pretty steady at +0.75. In 2 of the 3 times that had a similar warm April to 2018 but were El Niño fail, May cooled substantially from April. So far, that's not happening.
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 5/14/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C

#9369 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 14, 2018 5:16 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 5/14/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C

#9370 Postby Ntxw » Tue May 15, 2018 6:56 am

CDAS dataset (tropicaltidbits) has been seeing SST anom changes the past few weeks. Overall the equatorial Pacific has been warming slowly along with the eastern Pacific along South America. The Atlantic cold horse-shoe has also been slowly cooling.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9371 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 15, 2018 5:02 pm

GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.

Image

If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9372 Postby NDG » Wed May 16, 2018 5:45 am

Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.

https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png

If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.


The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9373 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 16, 2018 10:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro continues the trend of a reversal for its original forecast of a neutral SOI for May. By May 22, it has the SOI @ -2.5 for the month of May and high Darwin pressures/low Tahiti pressures returning. There's a realistic chance for May to close at -4/-5. Basically means all the blues and deep purples on the hovmollers (strong easterlies) over the dateline/CPAC coming on the GFS/Euro 850mb wind forecasts will likely disappear or not verify.


Yeah, King, what had earlier per the Euro looked to be near 0 for through 5/18 for the SOI is now looking to be near -3. I agree that a -4 to -5 for May as a whole is now quite possible. Darwin pressures have consistently been coming in higher and Tahiti slightly lower than what those earlier Euro runs had been suggesting.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9374 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 16, 2018 5:22 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.

https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png

If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.


The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.


Yeah, but it barely squeezes into phase 2 compared to previous runs. Phases 3/4/5 could easily nullify an emerging El Nino. The potency and effect of this upcoming trade burst is questionable since it looks to be centered over the dateline and anomalous westerly winds continue to dominant the EPAC. The 12z Euro also showed the pressures over Darwin increasing again after May 21, which would mean a return of the trade winds will be short.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9375 Postby NDG » Wed May 16, 2018 9:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.

https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png

If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.


The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.


Yeah, but it barely squeezes into phase 2 compared to previous runs. Phases 3/4/5 could easily nullify an emerging El Nino. The potency and effect of this upcoming trade burst is questionable since it looks to be centered over the dateline and anomalous westerly winds continue to dominant the EPAC. The 12z Euro also showed the pressures over Darwin increasing again after May 21, which would mean a return of the trade winds will be short.


If anything the Euro is now showing longer time over phase 2 and the GFS is now joining the Euro.

Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9376 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 16, 2018 10:22 pm

:uarrow: Phase 2 doesn't always guarantee a positive SOI though. Sinking is still greater than normal over Australia compared to Tahiti in this phase.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9377 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 16, 2018 11:31 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9378 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 17, 2018 6:35 am

@webberweather
The easterly trade wind burst is being generated by high frequency variability (I.e. a CCKW) which is usually temporary (2-3 week return period) if lasts beyond the lifetime of the cckw when intraseasonal forcing flips back then it would mean something for ENSO.


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/997077278415876097


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9379 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 17, 2018 10:25 am

Eyeballing the buoys the values are now warm neutral in the weeklies. The below normal anomalies are mostly confined below the equator and has been warming since the beginning of May.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9380 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 17, 2018 5:10 pm

Today's SOI value came in positive and per the 12z Euro, there will be a string of positive values until Sunday before the pressure pattern shifts back negative.
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