ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: BoM 2/27/18 update: La Niña retreats

#8881 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:04 am

cycloneye wrote:
Ntxw wrote:+4C anomalies have made an appearance below the dateline per TAO. IF there is a WWB second half of March then the conversation will change very quickly. At this time last year, there was no such warm pool induced KW


Image

That warmup at Niño 1+2 will not spread westward?


That is more because of the dying Nina and natural decay of seasonal SST change. We should focus on what is going on below the surface out west first as that has more implications down the road
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8882 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 01, 2018 3:31 pm

Updated EPS 850MB wind forecast from Ventrice.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/969277964742529024




Shows the trade surge not as strong compared to the previous EPS forecast:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8883 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:29 pm

Image

Image
easterlies across most of the enso eq region is the forecast for the next few weeks anyway..
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8884 Postby NDG » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:30 am

Here is my amateur ENSO forecast for this year:

Neutral
El Nino not developing until next year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8885 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:34 am

We may see the warm pool continue to strengthen, but we would need a significant WWB to actually initiate El Niño conditions. I’m thinking we may just say warm neural this year, primarily based on our base state. A moderate-strong El Niño for 2019 perhaps?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8886 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:43 pm

PDO for February down to -10 on NCDC. Should remain positive again on JISAO and JMA.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8887 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:47 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:We may see the warm pool continue to strengthen, but we would need a significant WWB to actually initiate El Niño conditions. I’m thinking we may just say warm neural this year, primarily based on our base state. A moderate-strong El Niño for 2019 perhaps?


A moderate-strong EL Nino for 2019 would be a good bet if ENSO stays at neutral for 2018. The downwelling Kelvin wave could be enough to push us into at least a weak El-Nino for 2018. We had proof of that in 2014, where the atomosphere failed to push us into a full fledged moderate/strong El Nino, but we had enough warmth at the subsurface because of a late winter downwelling Kelvin to push ENSO into weak El Nino status.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8888 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:24 pm

Image

A different look at the warming across the Nino regions.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8889 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:12 am

Euro has a pretty positive SOI setup until the middle of March,. Expect the trades to continue across the central Pacific.

Latest sub-surface frame continues to show the downwelling Kelvin wave strengthening and expanding the warm pool. +4C anomalies increasing and expanding. At this rate, all cool anomalies at the sub-surface will be gone by the end of March.

Image

Interesting battle repeating here, as we've seen in previous years... Atmosphere vs. the Ocean. One is pushing against and El-Nino and another one trying to force an onset.
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Re: ENSO: ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8890 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:44 pm

ONI goes up from -1.0C that was for NDJ to -0.9C for DJF.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php
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Re: ENSO: ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8891 Postby blp » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:ONI goes up from -1.0C that was for NDJ to -0.9C for DJF.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php


Noticed in the chart only one time in 1976 did the DJF have -0.9 or greater number and lead to El Niño in the prime months. I am rooting for an El Niño though. Residents on the Atlantic side need a break.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3,4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8892 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:22 am

CPC in the 3/5/18 update has a warming rebound of Niño 3.4 from -1.1C that was last Monday to now -0.8C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8893 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:03 pm

Looks like a WWB is trying to kick off west of the dateline. Will it move east? It has a lot to say for ENSO

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8894 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:29 pm

:uarrow: That would be substantial if the GFS gets it right. Especially since the Euro doesn't show it.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8895 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:04 pm

if that is off of the 0Z GFS, disregard. Developing some phantom TCs, including a brief one in the CPAC.

That would explain the westerly wind burst
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8896 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:10 pm

Alyono wrote:if that is off of the 0Z GFS, disregard. Developing some phantom TCs, including a brief one in the CPAC.

That would explain the westerly wind burst


Past 4 runs of the GFS had it as well.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8897 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:if that is off of the 0Z GFS, disregard. Developing some phantom TCs, including a brief one in the CPAC.

That would explain the westerly wind burst


Past 4 runs of the GFS had it as well.


The Euro does have westerly component west of the dateline. It's just not as strong as the GFS. But really you don't need the models to tell you that westerly winds are coming from the IO. The natural progression of the MJO is going to pass through the latter half of this month. WWBs are simply not the only result of TC activity.

the question to ask is will it be strong enough, or east enough to make a difference
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8898 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:if that is off of the 0Z GFS, disregard. Developing some phantom TCs, including a brief one in the CPAC.

That would explain the westerly wind burst


Past 4 runs of the GFS had it as well.


The Euro does have westerly component west of the dateline. It's just not as strong as the GFS. But really you don't need the models to tell you that westerly winds are coming from the IO. The natural progression of the MJO is going to pass through the latter half of this month. WWBs are simply not the only result of TC activity.

the question to ask is will it be strong enough, or east enough to make a difference


I think that's why Ventrice and co. are keeping their eye on the second half of March since the MJO could be in a position to kick off a WWB event. But it appears that the CFS keeps the MJO parked in the indian ocean through April.

Regarding the future dates on the Hovmoller maps, I think they're a direct illustration of the Euro/GFS predicted pressures affecting the SOI. I don't know how the GFS is showing a much stronger westerly anomaly compared to the Euro, when it has a stronger TC (a major hurricane in fact), plowing near Darwin and northern Australia, which would mean a considerably more positive SOI and much more dominant/stronger trades.
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Re: ENSO: CPC 3/5/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.8C / ONI for DJF up to -0.9C

#8899 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:07 am

CFS certainly isn’t the most reliable model when it comes to ENSO, but it is worth noting that not one ensemble member of the latest set is forecasting El Niño conditions this fall. It’s also interesting to note that the March CanSIPS came in slightly cooler.
Image
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Re: ENSO:

#8900 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:13 pm

Image

Image

It gets tossed about quite alot i know. But what be the odds about a nina modoki latter in the year.

Image
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