ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NotSparta]

Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]

The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit

If I recall correctly, it literally shut down any El Nino chance last season.

Really? Do you know how this happened? Still safe to say 2018 will have an El Niño since there isn't the warm east/cool west, and the warm pool is still there.

[Kingarabian]

The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit

If I recall correctly, it literally shut down any El Nino chance last season.

Really? Do you know how this happened? Still safe to say 2018 will have an El Niño since there isn't the warm east/cool west, and the warm pool is still there.

Pretty much the same MJO activity happened, except there was no substantial warm subsurface pool and OHC wasn't near +1C .

[Kingarabian]

Also. Another down welling Kelvin wave is appearing on the buoys.

[NotSparta]

Also. Another down welling Kelvin wave is appearing on the buoys.

Where?

[Kingarabian]

Also. Another down welling Kelvin wave is appearing on the buoys.

Where?

On the 20C isotherm charts

[StruThiO]

GFS depicts MJO strengthening and stalling in phase 5 for a while. Not sure if it's suspect or not. The result is enhanced trades over the dateline for a rather long time

[NotSparta]

GFS depicts MJO strengthening and stalling in phase 5 for a while. Not sure if it's suspect or not. The result is enhanced trades over the dateline for a rather long time

[img]https://i.imgur.com/vRZOnVC.gif[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/goW13oQ.gif[img]

Most models keep it around a week or so.

[StruThiO]

Considering that nino regions appear to ALREADY be cooling, this could indeed be a decent speedbump for el nino. And it's mid July, speedbumps matter this far into the year. IMO (I am no expert )

[hamburgerman7070]

Considering that nino regions appear to ALREADY be cooling, this could indeed be a decent speedbump for el nino. And it's mid July, speedbumps matter this far int
o the year. IMO (I am no expert )

I have a question. So what do we need to see happen for us moving forward to see an elniño this fall/winter and not a false hope of one? Also, Euro is the best with mjo progression imo.

[Kingarabian]

Considering that nino regions appear to ALREADY be cooling, this could indeed be a decent speedbump for el nino. And it's mid July, speedbumps matter this far int
o the year. IMO (I am no expert )

I have a question. So what do we need to see happen for us moving forward to see an elniño this fall/winter and not a false hope of one? Also, Euro is the best with mjo progression imo.

Honestly I dont know. All the ingredients are there. Like I said before, ENSO wise, 2018 could be shaping up to be a unique year that future years will use as an analog.

[StruThiO]

Honestly I dont know. All the ingredients are there. Like I said before, ENSO wise, 2018 could be shaping up to be a unique year that future years will use as an analog.

I guess the good news is maybe you won't have to worry as much about having a decent 'cane aiming for ya this year. If current trends continue that is

[hamburgerman7070]

Considering that nino regions appear to ALREADY be cooling, this could indeed be a decent speedbump for el nino. And it's mid July, speedbumps matter this far int
o the year. IMO (I am no expert )

I have a question. So what do we need to see happen for us moving forward to see an elniño this fall/winter and not a false hope of one? Also, Euro is the best with mjo progression imo.

Honestly I dont know. All the ingredients are there. Like I said before, ENSO wise, 2018 could be shaping up to be a unique year that future years will use as an analog.

I think you are good with recognizing patterns and mjo stuff. Niño's are usually good for better opportunities of snow/ice in our area, especially if it's not too east based imo.

[Kingarabian]

I have a question. So what do we need to see happen for us moving forward to see an elniño this fall/winter and not a false hope of one? Also, Euro is the best with mjo progression imo.

Honestly I dont know. All the ingredients are there. Like I said before, ENSO wise, 2018 could be shaping up to be a unique year that future years will use as an analog.

I think you are good with recognizing patterns and mjo stuff. Niño's are usually good for better opportunities of snow/ice in our area, especially if it's not too east based imo.

I love ENSO, but I still have a lot to learn. I get a lot of information from Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo @ Weatherbell.com. They're very good with recognizing patterns and are very knowledgeable about El Nino and its affects on CONUS winter. They talk about it on almost a daily basis and what kind of winter to expect (they're expecting a very wet winter).

https://www.weatherbell.com/premium

[Kingarabian]

Honestly I dont know. All the ingredients are there. Like I said before, ENSO wise, 2018 could be shaping up to be a unique year that future years will use as an analog.

I guess the good news is maybe you won't have to worry as much about having a decent 'cane aiming for ya this year. If current trends continue that is

Hope so. But we're far from out of the woods.

[NDG]

GFS depicts MJO strengthening and stalling in phase 5 for a while. Not sure if it's suspect or not. The result is enhanced trades over the dateline for a rather long time

https://i.imgur.com/vRZOnVC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/goW13oQ.gif

Today's GFS's update has the MJO even longer on phase 5, through at least the end of the month.

[NotSparta]

GFS depicts MJO strengthening and stalling in phase 5 for a while. Not sure if it's suspect or not. The result is enhanced trades over the dateline for a rather long time

https://i.imgur.com/vRZOnVC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/goW13oQ.gif

Today's GFS's update has the MJO even longer on phase 5, through at least the end of the month.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fDJRpTP.gif[img]

Once it gets to phase 6 it should really kick off the Niño coupling imo, but this MJO progression isn't helping the switch currently. I'm pretty sure all the Niño indices fell. Once it moves east I see a WWB, though a bit displaced from the equator

[Eric Webb]

GFS depicts MJO strengthening and stalling in phase 5 for a while. Not sure if it's suspect or not. The result is enhanced trades over the dateline for a rather long time

https://i.imgur.com/vRZOnVC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/goW13oQ.gif

Today's GFS's update has the MJO even longer on phase 5, through at least the end of the month.

The GFS has a horrendous Pacific bias I wouldn't put too much (if any) stock into that solution. Even the CFSv2 which arguably has an even worse Pacific bias is actually forecasting eastward propagation of this signal into the EP and W Hem by early August, which doesn't exactly look like an ENSO standing wave. You need this -VP200 to persist for several weeks to a few months (or more) to really qualify as a "standing" wave, seeing it persist for 2-3 weeks then leave doesn't really cut it. I'm also not saying it can't happen here but color me skeptical for now anyways. Unless this -VP200 sticks around over the West-central Pacific thru at least the 3rd-4th week of August, I'm far from convinced what we have is anything more than slightly "reddened" subseasonal variability.

[Eric Webb]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

[NotSparta]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

Sorry, the image is broken for me. Is it that Hovmöller graphic?

[Eric Webb]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

Sorry, the image is broken for me. Is it that Hovmöller graphic?

Ah okay I see, hopefully I just fixed the problem! Yeah it is a hovmoller graphic, I have several others saved up from other EPS forecasts and I'll have to say, the EPS hasn't generally done too bad w/ 850 near-equatorial wind anomalies even several weeks in advance.