ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

As I thought, looks like on today's CPC ENSO update, Nino 3.4 will be dropped to 0 deg C, dead on neutral.

[cycloneye]

As I thought, looks like on today's CPC ENSO update, Nino 3.4 will be dropped to 0 deg C, dead on neutral.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 0c58ab.gif

Can you post the link to that graphic? I lost it.

[Ntxw]

Per the weekly anom index 3.4 actually is down to -0.1C. All other regions fell as well except for 1.2 which rose a notch.

[NDG]

As I thought, looks like on today's CPC ENSO update, Nino 3.4 will be dropped to 0 deg C, dead on neutral.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 0c58ab.gif

Can you post the link to that graphic? I lost it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ssta_c.gif

[NDG]

Per the weekly anom index 3.4 actually is down to -0.1C. All other regions fell as well except for 1.2 which rose a notch.

Wow, so more than what the graphic shows.

[cycloneye]

The weekly text by CPC confirms the dip to -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

I am wondering if on the next monthly updated forecast they are going to keep chances of El Nino during the northern our Hemisphere summer at 70%, I doubt it since it has cooled down so much. By the time it warms back up it might be Autumn upon us already.

[Time_Zone]

What the hell? -0.1C!? I didn't see it cooling this much...did anybody?

[cycloneye]

Australian update of 7/29/14

They went down in the % to 50.

El Niño indicators ease

Issued on Tuesday 29 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.

While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year's end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has shifted to El Niño WATCH status. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[NDG]

I was waiting for any agency to drop down the percentage any time now at least for the short term, glad they took the initiative.

[Ntxw]

Looks like this new down-welling Oceanic Kelvin wave is the real deal. A new warm pool is likely in the making below the surface, this is where 2012 failed into August/September. 1+2 will likely feel dramatic cooling with the cool pool in the east being pushed up and out by this new OKW. Lets see if these anomalies continues to grow.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw If that cold pool goes up at 1+2 ,then it may be Modoki?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw If that cold pool goes up at 1+2 ,then it may be Modoki?

It may, the caveat is 3.4 has been stubborn to warm. You will need 1+2 to be cooler than 3.4, perhaps later into the fall.

[CaliforniaResident]

Here in Southern California, we are seeing a very El Ninoish summer (classic and not Modoki) which has distinct characteristics you would NOT find in a typical summer. I am still calling for a moderate El Nino to materialize in fall. Nino 1+2 is still quite "Ninoish" and the latest Kelvin Wave could bring warming to other regions.

[Yellow Evan]

Here in Southern California, we are seeing a very El Ninoish summer (classic and not Modoki) which has distinct characteristics you would NOT find in a typical summer.

Which are?

[Cyclenall]

What the hell? -0.1C!? I didn't see it cooling this much...did anybody?

I know some were calling for the cooling (early in July) and expected it to be under 0.5ºC but this is whacked.

[euro6208]

Very frustrating and disappointing pre-el nino.

[Hammy]

That large cool pool that has been present much of the year to the south of the equator looks like it is shrinking with time, is it possible this is mixing cooler waters and contributing to the stalling El Nino for the time being, and with it shrinking could that be an indication that things will pick back up in a few months?

[NDG]

Looks like cooler SSTs are now rising to the surface in Nino 1+2 Region. Western section of Nino 3.4 is starting to warm up a little, Nino 3 Region continuous to cool down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very frustrating and disappointing pre-el nino.

You should know that there is a cool pool pushed to the surface as an even bigger warmer pool is developing beneath the equatorial Pacific.