ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hamburgerman7070]

So, what would be the best case scenario for a more active winter? Always a lot of factors that are involved. I know its still early, but what is the most realistic scenario that should occur? I know SST's are important in certain parts of the world that could give early clues.

[Haris]

From Ben Noll. Interesting trend

[Kingarabian]

From Ben Noll. Interesting trend

Yeah, very relaxed trades east of the date line and in the EPAC.

Also notice some strong easterlies over the MDR now:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1021140379347795968

[NotSparta]

From Ben Noll. Interesting trend

Yeah, very relaxed trades east of the date line and in the EPAC.

Also notice some strong easterlies over the MDR now:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1021140379347795968[tweet]

Those are equatorial. Little easterly signal at 10-20N

[NotSparta]

Looks like Ben Noll's tweet has a smaller base climo so anomaly is different from 1979-2017

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1021172399344058368

[Kingarabian]

Looks like Ben Noll's tweet has a smaller base climo so anomaly is different from 1979-2017

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1021172399344058368

Looks like this one is the correct one:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1021171724165971968




Still shows more relaxed trades compared to the graphic taken on the 19th,

[LarryWx]

July MTD SOI is near 0. Per the 0Z Euro, July as a whole should end up pretty close to 0. If anything, this favors a fairly weak El Niño if there will be one for autumn/winter.

[NDG]

Nino 3.4 back up to +0.4C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.3C

[cycloneye]

CPC text of the 7/23/18 update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[meriland29]

I have a couple questions regarding the upcoming ASO season for the Atlantic and the effects from the pending El Nino. I have read a lot of the current discussion on this site pertaining to the matter and it seems questionable if El Nino will have likely established, or even happen during the ASO season. I also wonder if the limited amount of storms that have formed within the past couple of months (in comparison to the previous years) is directly related to it, and/or if it carries significance in determining the next couple of months? Ty

[meriland29]

CPC text of the 7/23/18 update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Forgive me for being a newbie/trying to learn things as best I can as-I-go...but what exactly does that mean and how significant is it?

[Ntxw]

CPC text of the 7/23/18 update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Forgive me for being a newbie/trying to learn things as best I can as-I-go...but what exactly does that mean and how significant is it?

It simply means ENSO has warmed back up to where it was before the cool down. With weakened trades it will likely remain where it is for awhile with no Sig WWBs. In short, still in neutral and not likely having a big impact at this time on the Atlantic. There are other indicators to look at besides the Nino 3.4 reading to get a larger picture and they all vary at the moment from one index to the next.

[Haris]

Ventrice is quite optimistic repeatedly for a nino. We shall see... Here is his latest post

[NDG]

[img]https://preview.ibb.co/jQkyg8/Screen_Shot_2018_07_24_at_3_41_07_PM.png

Ventrice is quite optimistic repeatedly for a nino. We shall see... Here is his latest post

Yes he has been very biased toward El Nino to pop up sooner than later, his forecast back in early June for a central Pacific El Nino like atmospheric conditions to pop up in July was clearly a bust, he relied too much on the CFS for that forecast.

[NDG]

☀️Michael Clark
@Met_mdclark

New EPS weekly data from Monday evening. Overall with this look imo #ElNino is just going to be hard to come by. I just don’t see the necessary trade wind reversals taking place at a key time of the year. The lean is towards a weak central based Niño possibly**. #AGwx #natgas

 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1022083906709999616

[TheStormExpert]

At this point there won’t be an El Niño in time to put a lid on the Atlantic season. It’ll be the -AMO that will do the job.

[Kingarabian]

☀️Michael Clark
@Met_mdclark

New EPS weekly data from Monday evening. Overall with this look imo #ElNino is just going to be hard to come by. I just don’t see the necessary trade wind reversals taking place at a key time of the year. The lean is towards a weak central based Niño possibly**. #AGwx #natgas

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1022083906709999616[/tw
eet]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/6lDre8V.jpg[/mg]

Interesting take from the EPS. Looks like it's modeling the MJO to emerge in the IO again.

The Euro has the MJO in the circle, and according Dr. Ventrice itll likely show the MJO emerging again over the Pacific.

Edit; looks like its indeed the EPS modeling out the MJO to emerge in the Pacific again.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1022100388768624641




I dont know what the EPS is doing by showing easterlies like that. When the MJO is in the circle easterlies are below average, and over the Pacific there's a good chance at a WWB or continuation of below average easterlies like the CFS is indicating.

[NDG]

At least over the next couple of weeks the trade winds will be relentless across the central equatorial Pacific as the western Pacific is forecasted to stay stormy.

[Eric Webb]

☀️Michael Clark
@Met_mdclark

New EPS weekly data from Monday evening. Overall with this look imo #ElNino is just going to be hard to come by. I just don’t see the necessary trade wind reversals taking place at a key time of the year. The lean is towards a weak central based Niño possibly**. #AGwx #natgas

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1022083906709999616[/tw
eet]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/6lDre8V.jpg[/mg]

Interesting take from the EPS. Looks like it's modeling the MJO to emerge in the IO again.

The Euro has the MJO in the circle, and according Dr. Ventrice itll likely show the MJO emerging again over the Pacific.

Edit; looks like its indeed the EPS modeling out the MJO to emerge in the Pacific again.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1022100388768624641




I dont know what the EPS is doing by showing easterlies like that. When the MJO is in the circle easterlies are below average, and over the Pacific there's a good chance at a WWB or continuation of below average easterlies like the CFS is indicating.

The MJO is not re-emerging in the Pacific that's actually just another fast moving CCKW that enters the basin in a few weeks, the EPS is forecasting above average trades over the dateline for the forseeable future. Furthermore, weak MJO behavior (i.e. "in the circle") actually doesn't entail whether the easterlies will be weaker or not, the CFS has a profound NINO bias even very early on in the forecast period (inside week 1) and isn't a reliable model to use in a situation like this where we're trying to advance into an El Nino because it will almost always jump the gun. The prevalence of WWBs well west of the dateline does bode well for this El Nino in the longer run as we approach winter. However, the lack of WWB thru the dateline and off-equatorial convection associated w/ the monsoon circulation over Asia will hurt this event in the shorter term until we get closer to and beyond the equinox when the ITCZ & concomitant wind forcing becomes more axisymmetric (or centered over) the equator. If that doesn't work, then a sudden stratospheric warming event may occur this winter which would accelerate the Brewer Dobson Circulation, triggering a large MJO event that then lays the ground work for this El Nino going into 2019-20. Still a lot of scenarios on the table but the CFS is almost certainly out to lunch as usual.

[Kingarabian]

☀️Michael Clark
@Met_mdclark

New EPS weekly data from Monday evening. Overall with this look imo #ElNino is just going to be hard to come by. I just don’t see the necessary trade wind reversals taking place at a key time of the year. The lean is towards a weak central based Niño possibly**. #AGwx #natgas

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1022083906709999616[tw
eet]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/6lDre8V.jpg[/mg]

Interesting take from the EPS. Looks like it's modeling the MJO to emerge in the IO again.

The Euro has the MJO in the circle, and according Dr. Ventrice itll likely show the MJO emerging again over the Pacific.

Edit; looks like its indeed the EPS modeling out the MJO to emerge in the Pacific again.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1022100388768624641[tweet]

I dont know what the EPS is doing by showing easterlies like that. When the MJO is in the circle easterlies are below average, and over the Pacific there's a good chance at a WWB or continuation of below average easterlies like the CFS is indicating.

The MJO is not re-emerging in the Pacific that's actually just another fast moving CCKW that enters the basin in a few weeks, the EPS is forecasting above average trades over the dateline for the forseeable future. Furthermore, weak MJO behavior (i.e. "in the circle") actually doesn't entail whether the easterlies will be weaker or not, the CFS has a profound NINO bias even very early on in the forecast period (inside week 1) and isn't a reliable model to use in a situation like this where we're trying to advance into an El Nino because it will almost always jump the gun. The prevalence of WWBs well west of the dateline does bode well for this El Nino in the longer run as we approach winter. However, the lack of WWB thru the dateline and off-equatorial convection associated w/ the monsoon circulation over Asia will hurt this event in the shorter term until we get closer to and beyond the equinox when the ITCZ & concomitant wind forcing becomes more axisymmetric (or centered over) the equator. If that doesn't work, then a sudden stratospheric warming event may occur this winter which would accelerate the Brewer Dobson Circulation, triggering a large MJO event that then lays the ground work for this El Nino going into 2019-20. Still a lot of scenarios on the table but the CFS is almost certainly out to lunch as usual.

Good stuff as usual, Eric. But even then, shouldn't a CCKW over the Pacific also act to slow the trades?