ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[TyphoonNara]

Nino 3.4 index up to nearly +1°C.

[cycloneye]

Is the Niño 3.4 spike at CDAS noise or is the real deal?

[NotSparta]

Is the Niño 3.4 spike at CDAS noise or is the real deal?

OISST is even higher. It might be noise, but there's a definite upward trend

[Kingarabian]

Is the Niño 3.4 spike at CDAS noise or is the real deal?

I'm not sure if I'm reading the buoys correctly. But:

Nino 3 looks like +0.9C above the eq. and +1.0C under the eq.

Nino 4 looks like +1.1C above the eq. and +1.0C under the eq.

In the middle of all that, theres +1C/+0.9C centerd on the eq.



So I would say there's credence to this CDAS/OISST jump.

[Kingarabian]

Is the Niño 3.4 spike at CDAS noise or is the real deal?

OISST is even higher. It might be noise, but there's a definite upward trend

https://.imgur.com/wuiOvKz.png

i see your charts progressing and your website expanding. Good work and keep it up!

[Kingarabian]

But peep the subsurface. The buoys have finally caught up with the PENTAD graphics.

[NotSparta]

Is the Niño 3.4 spike at CDAS noise or is the real deal?

OISST is even higher. It might be noise, but there's a definite upward trend

https://.imgur.com/wuiOvKz.png

i see your charts progressing and your website expanding. Good work and keep it up!

Thanks! Happy that you like it!!

OISST & CDAS agreeing definitely gives credence to the rapid warming of the ENSO regions. Makes sense given massive WWB recently, & the sudden tropical Pacific warming will help it as well

[Shell Mound]

But peep the subsurface. The buoys have finally caught up with the PENTAD graphics.

https://i.imgur.com/oCqaUXO.png

Current anomalies look to be on a par with or warmer than those at this time in 2015. Am I correct?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1102188714162294784

[Kingarabian]

But peep the subsurface. The buoys have finally caught up with the PENTAD graphics.

https://i.imgur.com/oCqaUXO.png

Current anomalies look to be on a par with or warmer than those at this time in 2015. Am I correct?

I have to double check but I believe so.

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1102188714162294784[rl]

This is a very important period for ENSO in regards to 2019 hurricane season effects. If these easterlies become enhanced for an extended period of time, it'll help stop this El Nino from becoming a moderate/strong one and reduce the chances for a double dip El Nino.

Since the atmosphere is now coupled, we may see it "help out" by stopping the MJO from going into phases 4/5 and send it back to phases 8/1/2.

Thanks to the strong February WWB we're seeing continued strengthening of the warm pool with +5C anomalies now showing up.

[NotSparta]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1102188714162294784[rl]

This is a very important period for ENSO in regards to 2019 hurricane season effects. If these easterlies become enhanced for an extended period of time, it'll help stop this El Nino from becoming a moderate/strong one and reduce the chances for a double dip El Nino.

Since the atmosphere is now coupled, we may see it "help out" by stopping the MJO from going into phases 4/5 and send it back to phases 8/1/2.

Thanks to the strong February WWB we're seeing continued strengthening of the warm pool with +5C anomalies now showing up.

https://i.imgur.com/5eKJET2.gif

Yeah, atmospheric coupling is a huge player. It still has the potential to make or break the Niño

[Ntxw]

SOI looks mostly negative despite what the MJO is doing.

[Kingarabian]

BOM has Nino 3.4 up to +0.8C. So there's now some official credence to the satellite spikes. We'll see what the CPC says tomorrow morning.

[Kingarabian]

SOI looks mostly negative despite what the MJO is doing.

Looks like there isn't much time for the SOI to rise because the rising air quickly moves into the WPAC and spreads across the Pacific. So it's likely the MJO is not going to be remaining in phases 2/3 for long.



PC: Weatherbell

Edit: 00z Euro has Tahiti around 1011.50mb average and Darwin around 1010 average for the next 7-8 days. So if this verifies, for March 4-March 12 the SOI will average out between -5/-8. So the pressure pattern doesn't seem like it's going to be promoting strong trade bursts for too long. I think by mid March or towards the end of March we may see another WWB.

[cycloneye]

Looks like there will be a big jump in Niño 3.4 on the weekly update by CPC that will be released soon. It was at +0.7C last week.

[Ntxw]

Before we get a weekly update the ONI for DJF again comes in at +0.8C. That is the same as NDJ meaning no weakening in that period from ONI. That is now 4 trimonthly and the last one will come (JFM) next month. We will get the 5th official trimonthly at that time.

[Ntxw]

Jumped to 1.1C...in March. Even though unlikely you're getting rattles of 2015

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 up to +1.1C

It jumped from +0.7C that was in last weeks update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[StruThiO]

hmmm