ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

The warmer waters are the result of the persistent +PDO

Not sure if you realize how anomalous 75F+ SST are for us: it's like the +PDO has a much tighter grip on the forces than the waters in the equatorial Pacific. It will be very interesting to see how the effects play out in both the Atlantic and Pacific during the heart of the hurricane season. Both basins could end up with well above normal ACE in the end.

Weird how southern California's coastal waters are so warm but the rest of the California's coastal waters are slightly below average, well into the 50s.
I bet you guys in southern California are enjoying those mid to upper 70s SSTs!!!

i definitely have been here in the santa barbara area. i been feeling spoiled with the luke warm tepid water and clearness. of course if i want water like this all the time i should really consider a move to the GOM or florida regions

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/760456673353867264

[Kingarabian]

It's crazy that the PDO has such a major effect on ENSO. Everything was in place for a moderate La-Nina event except for it.

[Hunabku]

It's crazy that the PDO has such a major effect on ENSO. Everything was in place for a moderate La-Nina event except for it.

According to a 2012 study by Barnston et al http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1 “results indicate (ENSO forecasting) skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s” “This finding” “suggests that decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability are a greater skill-determining factor than the steady but gradual trend toward improved ENSO prediction science and models.”

[Hunabku]

Cold pool is waining . . .



Trades may be a bit late to the party. Very interesting to see how this plays out. Anyway, I don't think cfsv2 factors subsurface temps and neither does ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/760858084277297152

[Hunabku]

Some are calling it La Nina modoki, with the cooling and trades focusing primarily on 3.4.

[Ntxw]

Some are calling it La Nina modoki, with the cooling and trades focusing primarily on 3.4.

This is something I am having a hard time understanding with the term used lately by some as La Nina "modoki". I understand why a modoki Nino works the way it does. El Nino is about thunderstorm clusters in the Pacific and where they occur have profound effects. But in a La Nina it's all about squashing thunderstorms and focusing them over the Maritime continent, so what difference would a "Modoki" Nina be anyway if there is no thunderstorms during La Nina generally speaking east of the dateline to begin with?

[Hunabku]

Some are calling it La Nina modoki, with the cooling and trades focusing primarily on 3.4.

This is something I am having a hard time understanding with the term used lately by some as La Nina "modoki". I understand why a modoki Nino works the way it does. El Nino is about thunderstorm clusters in the Pacific and where they occur have profound effects. But in a La Nina it's all about squashing thunderstorms and focusing them over the Maritime continent, so what difference would a "Modoki" Nina be anyway if there is no thunderstorms during La Nina generally speaking east of the dateline to begin with?

I think it's just a play on words and not official usage of the term "modoki" in any way. Modoki is related to nino-like conditions and denotes a primarily central pacific or more western located warming event versus a more eastern pacific event. Perhaps in the future we will understand why our latest nino was a hybrid event (blend between west and east) where 97-98 was classified as a predominantly eastern event. For now it appears that our developing nina kind of mirrors or reflects the nino that preceded it in location, but definitely not in intensity.

[Hurricaneman]

looks to me like the PDO is dropping like a rock, could be the thing thats needed to get La Nina going

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Yellow Evan]

looks to me like the PDO is dropping like a rock, could be the thing thats needed to get La Nina going

You've been insisting on this for months and to be honest, simply hasn't been verifying.

[Hurricaneman]

looks to me like the PDO is dropping like a rock, could be the thing thats needed to get La Nina going

You've been insisting on this for months and to be honest, simply hasn't been verifying.

Basing it on the horseshoe of cooling around North America on the tropical tidbits site

[USTropics]

Pretty interesting study on TIWs and salinity/heat transference in the Pacific:

http://aquarius.umaine.edu/cgi/sci_results.htm

This promising early scientific result from Aquarius motivated scientists to take a new look at a category of major oceanic features - thousands of kilometers in length - known as "Tropical Instability Waves" (TIWs). These westward-traveling waves have been recognized for decades as north-south deflections in the tongues of cool water that extend along the equator, off the west coasts of Africa (Atlantic) and South America (Pacific). The cool tongue of seawater in the equatorial Pacific, for example, covers one-quarter of Earth's circumference. In this vast region, TIW activity has been associated with regions of localized high photoplankton productivity and accumulations of marine organisms.

Although TIWs have been studied extensively using sea surface height and temperature data, Aquarius sea surface salinity measurements have been instrumental in understanding their behavior very close to the equator. Aquarius data have uncovered details on how TIWs push saltier South Pacific water to the north and pull fresher North Pacific water to the south (Figure 8). These sea surface salinity studies have revealed that TIWs at the equator can travel twice as fast (i.e,. 1 meter per second or 2.2 miles per hour) as those away from the equator. This previously unknown characteristic has significant implications for how these waves interact with ocean currents to redistribute seawater's heat, salt, nutrients, and carbon.

[Hunabku]

looks to me like the PDO is dropping like a rock, could be the thing thats needed to get La Nina going

If you're interested you can learn something new while also unlearning a common misconception about the PDO and how it relates to ENSO. The following quote is from an article by Bob Tinsdale that I linked to earlier in this thread:

“THE PDO IS DEPENDENT UPON ENSO ON ALL TIMESCALES”

. . . ENSO drives the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, not the other way around. . . .Thus, my repeated statement in blog comments whenever the relationship between the PDO and ENSO is discussed: the PDO is an aftereffect of ENSO…that’s also impacted by the sea level pressure and related wind patterns of the North Pacific.

The drop we are seeing now in the PDO is primarily because it is only now reflecting the SST drops we saw months ago in ENSO (PDO lags ENSO by months). ENSO is the main driver of changes in the PDO - most obviously in the major PDO fluctuations that occur in less than decadal time frames. The other notable driver, for the purpose of our current dialog, is the wind patterns in the North Pacific. Although these wind patterns have decadal trends or tendencies to support a negative or positive PDO, they also have a lot of near-term variability.

In short, the current dropping PDO, in addition to reflecting an ENSO cooling lag, could also be related to relatively temporary north atlantic winds - which unlike the trades have no known direct effect on ENSO.

Perhaps a better way to look at the PDO is as another indicator of the state of ENSO, in a hindsight kind of way. Because there is greater discrepancy between the PDO, which is still positive after many months, and ENSO, which is mildly negative, this suggests that ENSO didn't have much built up momentum or propensity for going into a nina state in the first place (i.e., in hindsight). Bob does a better job than I of explaining this for sure!

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/the-201415-el-nino-part-5-the-relationship-between-the-pdo-and-enso/

PS: In a way, all this hubbub about the PDO takes our eyes off of the real prize, which is the decadal variations in the character of ENSO itself. The PDO gives us a measurable window into those variations because it is clearly driven by those variations. We have so much to learn about ENSO, we've barely even scratched the surface.

[Ntxw]

We also must remember that the PDO is a long term signal. Looking over years and even spanning decades. One ENSO event does not necessarily control an entire PDO cycle but rather multiple events or re-occurrence. This is why you must be careful when looking at this Nina, if it is a weak event it may not be enough to flip the longer term +PDO that has already been established by the warm regimes of 2014-2016. If for some reason we revert back to a warm event next year then this "blip" will be just that.

[cycloneye]

CPC update of 8/8/16 has Nino 3.4 at -0.5C. ONI down to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is it possible the super nino will give a little extra fuel to this PDO as well. Lots of heat was pumped into the pacific during the last nino event.

[Ntxw]

This La Nina is really struggling. At the surface it is more cold neutral than Nina based on the readings for any sustained period. Even with the above normal trades, the subsurface didn't see dramatic cooling rather reimbursing what was there maybe slightly colder but not the -4, -5, -6C during a powerful event. If you believe the guidance (they are fairly reliable around this period into the fall compared to spring) the cold readings may have already peaked and may hold steady the rest of the way. If -0.5C to -0.8C is all we can muster it may not be enough to classify the event based on the trimonthlies.

As mentioned, 2007 was the only year with similar weak anomalies that managed a moderate event. However that was fully entrenched in the cold PDO waters surrounding it with a strong Nina atmosphere-like to boot, neither of which are present today. 1998 and 2010 were already at -1.4C and -1.2C respectively around the same time. That ship has sailed.

You don't need numbers to see the results. The event is clearly being boxed in.
2016


2010


2007


1998

[Hunabku]

Is it possible the super nino will give a little extra fuel to this PDO as well. Lots of heat was pumped into the pacific during the last nino event.

Well that wasn't the case with the 97-98 el nino. It occurred at the end of a positive decadal phase of ENSO. So when the 98 nina occurred, it had enough effect to represent a flip of the PDO (and more importantly ENSO) into a negative decadal phase.

[Hunabku]

. . . 1998 and 2010 were already at -1.4C and -1.2C respectively around the same time. That ship has sailed.

You don't need numbers to see the results. The event is clearly being boxed in.
2016

Outstanding way to contextualize and visualize this. Thanks!