ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Eyeballing the buoys the values are now warm neutral in the weeklies. The below normal anomalies are mostly confined below the equator and has been warming since the beginning of May.

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/b1/b1/UW7VC8JW_o.jpg[mg]

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/21/37/a07IwBd9_o.jpg[mg]

Yeah and there's +1C anomalies beginning to surface under Nino 3 and 1+2.

2009 had more warm east than to the west compared to 2018. But so far 2018 has been keeping up.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/997064560182902784

[Kingarabian]

Bulk of the deep Easterly anomalies are entered west of the dateline. Looks like until 25th the westerly anomalies will continue to dominate in the Eastern Pacific.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow:

Bulk of the deep Easterly anomalies are entered west of the dateline. Looks like until 25th the westerly anomalies will continue to dominate in the Eastern Pacific.

That's not going to be good for the Bejerknes feedback

[Ntxw]

As posted above, 1C+ anomalies is lurking very thinly below the surface from about 130W on eastward.



The EWB near the dateline has done little to cool the central Pacific. SSHA continues to rise out that way as well as overall OHC rising again. To be fair the greatest trades are yet to come here in the coming days over the DL. Lets see if it effects the warm pool below.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

Bulk of the deep Easterly anomalies are entered west of the dateline. Looks like until 25th the westerly anomalies will continue to dominate in the Eastern Pacific.

That's not going to be good for the Bejerknes feedback

We're going to need more than just this trade burst to disrupt the progress already made. And it's not abnormal to see occasional trade bursts in El Nino events.

[tolakram]

:uarrow:

Bulk of the deep Easterly anomalies are entered west of the dateline. Looks like until 25th the westerly anomalies will continue to dominate in the Eastern Pacific.

That's not going to be good for the Bejerknes feedback

We're going to need more than just this trade burst to disrupt the progress already made. And it's not abnormal to see occasional trade bursts in El Nino events.

We were here last year, almost the same types of calls. Not picking on you, just noting that at this point is seems the atmosphere is not fully coupled and we have trade bursts predicted. There's a lot of warm water out there but El Nino looked like a pretty safe bet this time last year.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=7860#p2579878

More cool on that map than this year, does it mean anything? I still feel like we're 15 or so days away from the Aha! moment.

My bias is simple, I don't think we have a clue yet.

[cycloneye]

Bingo!! tolakram "I don't think we have a clue yet"

[dexterlabio]

El Nino is not the only card in the deck and many people here could always argue against its possibility of showing up in any year. Even in 2014/2015 when there were monster indicators of a brewing super EN, some people chose to downplay it. A lot of things can still happen in the near term, but IMO it will be wise to pay attention to what the indicators are telling us, I mean they are not called "indicators" for nothing.

[NotSparta]

That's not going to be good for the Bejerknes feedback

We're going to need more than just this trade burst to disrupt the progress already made. And it's not abnormal to see occasional trade bursts in El Nino events.

We were here last year, almost the same types of calls. Not picking on you, just noting that at this point is seems the atmosphere is not fully coupled and we have trade bursts predicted. There's a lot of warm water out there but El Nino looked like a pretty safe bet this time last year.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=7860#p2579878

More cool on that map than this year, does it mean anything? I still feel like we're 15 or so days away from the Aha! moment.

My bias is simple, I don't think we have a clue yet.

I hope the SPB doesn't go into July like last year.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm thinking a weak El Niño at most, and at the earliest, the fall. The atmosphere does not seem to be fully coupled with El Niño. The warmest anomalies in the subsurface have barely moved in the last two months. There hasn’t been any major WWBs since March. The SOI has not fallen to a consistent string of strong negatives like it typically does before an El Niño. The latest average across all models has a +0.4C for ASO.

[Ntxw]

El Nino is not the only card in the deck and many people here could always argue against its possibility of showing up in any year. Even in 2014/2015 when there were monster indicators of a brewing super EN, some people chose to downplay it. A lot of things can still happen in the near term, but IMO it will be wise to pay attention to what the indicators are telling us, I mean they are not called "indicators" for nothing.

More importantly it's good to look at the foundation pieces, primarily below the surface alongside the wind stress. Last year the foundation wasn't there, and some (myself included) thought the surface wind stress would eek out something against the historical odds that many of us made note was against an El Nino. I have learned over the years, long term sustainability for ENSO is below the surface. The wind stress tells you short term changes.

This year is a bit different, the foundation pieces is some better and the statistical odds are also better. Doesn't mean we get there but it's an attempt!

2017 below the surface

[Kingarabian]

That's not going to be good for the Bejerknes feedback

We're going to need more than just this trade burst to disrupt the progress already made. And it's not abnormal to see occasional trade bursts in El Nino events.

We were here last year, almost the same types of calls. Not picking on you, just noting that at this point is seems the atmosphere is not fully coupled and we have trade bursts predicted. There's a lot of warm water out there but El Nino looked like a pretty safe bet this time last year.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=7860#p2579878

More cool on that map than this year, does it mean anything? I still feel like we're 15 or so days away from the Aha! moment.

My bias is simple, I don't think we have a clue yet.

I respectfully disagree when it comes to the status of the indicators now vs. 2017.

There has been a much stronger ocean response:
We've had three moderate-strong downwelling Kelvin waves this year at this time compared to only one moderate downwelling Kelvin wave in 2017.

There has been a much stronger atmosphere response:
1. The MJO has spent most of its time in the "El Nino phases" and also amplifying the most in these phases (hence why we've had three downwelling Kelvin waves since January).
2. We've seen numerous potent WWB events since February. I believe there was only one significant WWB in all of 2017.


The PMM has been historically positive. +PMM favors El Nino's. Also for all its warmth over the Nino regions, the Pacific SST configuration we had last year in fact did not favor an El Nino compared to the way the current SST configuration does. The last piece of the puzzle is the SOI. In the majority of El Nino events, the month of May came in negative. So far it's on track to do so.

But your bias is completely fine and it is the safest route, and we have the luxury to go with our hunch. But I believe for professional forecasters who have to make a decision, they look at specific indicators noted above.

[cycloneye]

The plume of ENSO models from Mid-May has the ASO consensus number at +0.4C.

[Kingarabian]

Would probably show +0.5C or greater if it had the correct current Nino 3.4 values.

Even the CFS is making forecasts off a lower Nino 3.4 reading:

[tolakram]

I respectfully disagree when it comes to the status of the indicators now vs. 2017.

There has been a much stronger ocean response:
We've had three moderate-strong downwelling Kelvin waves this year at this time compared to only one moderate downwelling Kelvin wave in 2017.

There has been a much stronger atmosphere response:
1. The MJO has spent most of its time in the "El Nino phases" and also amplifying the most in these phases (hence why we've had three downwelling Kelvin waves since January).
2. We've seen numerous potent WWB events since February. I believe there was only one significant WWB in all of 2017.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/ckTtaKc.png[/img]

The PMM has been historically positive. +PMM favors El Nino's. Also for all its warmth over the Nino regions, the Pacific SST configuration we had last year in fact did not favor an El Nino compared to the way the current SST configuration does. The last piece of the puzzle is the SOI. In the majority of El Nino events, the month of May came in negative. So far it's on track to do so.

But your bias is completely fine and it is the safest route, and we have the luxury to go with our hunch. But I believe for professional forecasters who have to make a decision, they look at specific indicators noted above.

Not arguing here, just presenting some ideas to back up why I think we are clueless.

Last year we were, unknowingly at the time, dipping down to almost a moderate la nina.



So yes, nothing looks like last year and I don't think any of us are expecting a repeat of what happened. I still see many respected meteorologists are saying the atmosphere is not very nino like which leads me to believe that we still don't know, other than maybe saying whatever we get won't be strong.

[tolakram]

From Tropical Tidbits, here are the various CDAS graphs. Last year every region was dropping and Luis made his first of two posts showing the sudden dive.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=7900#p2580063









This year, um, not so much.

[NotSparta]

I looked through more posts, and the upcoming trade pattern looks similar, with the stronger ones toward the dateline, and westerly anomalies near South America. Not saying we'll have another failed attempt, but it seems that the pattern isn't the most favorable for El Niño, especially since they tend to build west to east.

[Kingarabian]

From Tropical Tidbits, here are the various CDAS graphs. Last year every region was dropping and Luis made his first of two posts showing the sudden dive.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=7900#p2580063

[img]https://i.imgur.com/PvfMJWu.png[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/imWPXZK.png[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/oaxntp6.png[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/gRmlxcJ.png[img]

This year, um, not so much.

Yep, and I recall at the same time Luis and I were waiting for a oceanic Kelvin wave signal that never materialized.

We've had three downwelling Kelvin waves so far this at this time compared to only one last year:



2017 had 3 upwelling Kelvin waves which we should've paid attention to.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: I looked through more posts, and the upcoming trade pattern looks similar, with the stronger ones toward the dateline, and westerly anomalies near South America. Not saying we'll have another failed attempt, but it seems that the pattern isn't the most favorable for El Niño, especially since they tend to build west to east.

I know it sounds like I'm beating a dead horse here lol, but the zonal wind pattern this year is a lot more El Nino-esque than last year. I don't recall one large scale WWB over the Eq. Pacific after Feb.2017. Compare that to the CFS wind graphic I posted earlier today which has repeated WWB's.