ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Should be -1C at the update later this morning

[CyclonicFury]

Should be -1C at the update later this morning

Despite all this El Niño talk by Eric Webb (and 1997/2015 comparisons), La Niña is still firmly in place, for now. I just don’t see a quick turnaround to Strong El Niño conditions for hurricane season. In the cases of 1997 and 2015, La Niña conditions were not present at this time, and in 2015 we were already nearly at moderate El Niño conditions at this time. I just have a hard time believing how we could see anything more than a moderate El Niño this fall.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Not yet as of 19th of Febuary.The 30 day index goes negative and the 90 day one is on the virge to do that.

Code: Select all

1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95
3 Feb 2018   1004.90   1006.25   -29.25   6.38   4.51
4 Feb 2018   1006.55   1006.45   -22.29   5.84   4.22
5 Feb 2018   1006.06   1005.45   -19.84   5.74   3.96
6 Feb 2018   1005.29   1006.20   -27.14   5.33   3.46
7 Feb 2018   1005.02   1006.10   -27.95   4.74   3.03
8 Feb 2018   1006.19   1006.35   -23.54   4.16   2.73
9 Feb 2018   1008.99   1006.40   -10.33   3.85   2.62
10 Feb 2018   1011.01   1006.65   -1.83   3.50   2.60
11 Feb 2018   1010.63   1007.10   -5.81   3.02   2.46
12 Feb 2018   1009.04   1007.00   -12.97   2.42   2.18
13 Feb 2018   1006.84   1006.55   -21.37   1.51   1.81
14 Feb 2018   1007.05   1006.90   -22.05   0.37   1.39
15 Feb 2018   1010.15   1008.30   -13.88   -0.66   1.10
16 Feb 2018   1012.74   1009.60   -7.68   -1.68   0.86
17 Feb 2018   1011.37   1009.40   -13.30   -2.72   0.57
18 Feb 2018   1010.76   1008.75   -13.11   -3.65   0.31
19 Feb 2018   1010.23   1008.70   -15.42   -4.71   0.04
Last updated: 29 June 2010

[cycloneye]

So much for the El Niño hype.

@MJVentrice
Trades are forecast to return back over the Pacific as advertised by the ECMWF EPS. The atmosphere is fighting against the ocean momentum towards El Nino.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/965586633948057601

[cycloneye]

Should be -1C at the update later this morning

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian Not yet as of 19th of Febuary.The 30 day index goes negative and the 90 day one is on the virge to do that.

Code: Select all

1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95
3 Feb 2018   1004.90   1006.25   -29.25   6.38   4.51
4 Feb 2018   1006.55   1006.45   -22.29   5.84   4.22
5 Feb 2018   1006.06   1005.45   -19.84   5.74   3.96
6 Feb 2018   1005.29   1006.20   -27.14   5.33   3.46
7 Feb 2018   1005.02   1006.10   -27.95   4.74   3.03
8 Feb 2018   1006.19   1006.35   -23.54   4.16   2.73
9 Feb 2018   1008.99   1006.40   -10.33   3.85   2.62
10 Feb 2018   1011.01   1006.65   -1.83   3.50   2.60
11 Feb 2018   1010.63   1007.10   -5.81   3.02   2.46
12 Feb 2018   1009.04   1007.00   -12.97   2.42   2.18
13 Feb 2018   1006.84   1006.55   -21.37   1.51   1.81
14 Feb 2018   1007.05   1006.90   -22.05   0.37   1.39
15 Feb 2018   1010.15   1008.30   -13.88   -0.66   1.10
16 Feb 2018   1012.74   1009.60   -7.68   -1.68   0.86
17 Feb 2018   1011.37   1009.40   -13.30   -2.72   0.57
18 Feb 2018   1010.76   1008.75   -13.11   -3.65   0.31
19 Feb 2018   1010.23   1008.70   -15.42   -4.71   0.04
Last updated: 29 June 2010

Thats true, because it looks like that low near Tahiti lingered longer than expected. My original thoughts were for a reversal after the 20th though. It clearly shows up on the EPS Hovmoller that Ventrice just posted (trade burst forecast).

[cycloneye]

Webb keeps the El Niño option open.

@webberweather
The downwelling Kelvin Wave currently in the WP has analogous WWV to 1997 but is starting from 2014's cooler base state. Even w/ attenuation & no additional forcing, this KW is enough on its own to send us to warm neutral/borderline weak El Nino conditions by late spring. #ElNino

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/965637950976544768

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
It's funny how gun shy many have become this yr w/ ENSO & I see many comparisons to last yr. 2017 & this yr really aren't comparable going into the predictability barrier. This yr's +PMM/-AMO & historical ENSO bandwidth is more favorable for NINO growth (but doesn't guarantee it)

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/965653768011505670

[Alyono]

webb calling for niño by late spring is very Bastardish, imo. While I favor an el niño this year, it is hard to envision going from a niña to a niño this quickly. I was thinking more of a 2006 like evolution

[Kingarabian]

webb calling for niño by late spring is very Bastardish, imo. While I favor an el niño this year, it is hard to envision going from a niña to a niño this quickly. I was thiking more of a 2006 like evolution

I agree lol. The next sub surface frame will be interesting to see as it will show us truly how strong the Kelvin wave is.

Also this is in the very long range, but the past couple of runs, the Euro has been hinting on a negative leaning SOI for the first week of March. Something to keep an eye on.

[WeatherGuesser]

Anybody seeing another cold blast before the seasons change for the year?

[StruThiO]

Anybody seeing another cold blast before the seasons change for the year?

Do you mean as it pertains to ENSO or in general? Here in Portland we just got a Winter Storm Warning with 3 to 7 inches of snow expected for the metro area.

[wxman57]

webb calling for niño by late spring is very Bastardish, imo. While I favor an el niño this year, it is hard to envision going from a niña to a niño this quickly. I was thinking more of a 2006 like evolution

I'm thinking more like 2011-2012 than 2005-2006. Slightly warm-neutral. Activity a little above normal.

[Kingarabian]

Latest subsurface frame shows the downwelling Kelvin Wave still in full force. Going to take more than this upcoming trade burst to slow this down.

[cycloneye]

The mid-Febuary plume of models on average have Neutral ENSO for ASO.



https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAEnEWoZeHs
Jane is usually on the money with enso.

[cycloneye]

SOI has turned positive.

Code: Select all

1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95
3 Feb 2018   1004.90   1006.25   -29.25   6.38   4.51
4 Feb 2018   1006.55   1006.45   -22.29   5.84   4.22
5 Feb 2018   1006.06   1005.45   -19.84   5.74   3.96
6 Feb 2018   1005.29   1006.20   -27.14   5.33   3.46
7 Feb 2018   1005.02   1006.10   -27.95   4.74   3.03
8 Feb 2018   1006.19   1006.35   -23.54   4.16   2.73
9 Feb 2018   1008.99   1006.40   -10.33   3.85   2.62
10 Feb 2018   1011.01   1006.65   -1.83   3.50   2.60
11 Feb 2018   1010.63   1007.10   -5.81   3.02   2.46
12 Feb 2018   1009.04   1007.00   -12.97   2.42   2.18
13 Feb 2018   1006.84   1006.55   -21.37   1.51   1.81
14 Feb 2018   1007.05   1006.90   -22.05   0.37   1.39
15 Feb 2018   1010.15   1008.30   -13.88   -0.66   1.10
16 Feb 2018   1012.74   1009.60   -7.68   -1.68   0.86
17 Feb 2018   1011.37   1009.40   -13.30   -2.72   0.57
18 Feb 2018   1010.76   1008.75   -13.11   -3.65   0.31
19 Feb 2018   1010.23   1008.70   -15.42   -4.71   0.04
20 Feb 2018   1010.05   1007.95   -12.68   -5.66   -0.25
21 Feb 2018   1011.69   1007.75   -3.84   -6.48   -0.46
22 Feb 2018   1013.89   1006.10   14.65   -6.85   -0.40
23 Feb 2018   1015.61   1006.05   23.15   -6.76   -0.16

[OuterBanker]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAEnEWoZeHs
Jane is usually on the money with enso.

Thanks Chaser. Excellent video, sure wish they would do the same here in the states. I agree, all looks neutral for this year. Might head for a weak Nino by year end, but too late to have any effect on this years Atlantic hurricane season.

BTW, with her accent I'll bet that she ain't from around here.

[cycloneye]

The battle between the warm and cold waters below the surface is raging on and the question is which one will dominate in the next few months.

[Kingarabian]

SOI has turned positive.

[code][/code]

Looks like the euro is keeping a pretty neutral SOI setup for the first week of March (that can still change as its in the medium range). Trades will probably remain relaxed until the pressure setup changes. So this means the spotlight will remain on the downwelling Kelvin wave and how much it warms the subsurface pool.