ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[abajan]

That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

I just googled manatu box and this thread was the only result returned. Could you please provide a link to anything about this?

[stormwise]

Try google with Enso manatu box it does exist.

https://i.imgsafe.org/1b98b304d2.png

[Ntxw]

Stays -0.4C this week. Still no La Nina yet

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 7/11/16.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[BigA]

Earlier today Michael Ventrice tweeted the ECMWF ensemble forecast of 850 mb zonal wind anomalies (5N-5S). Note the increased easterlies predicted over the equatorial Pacific during the next two weeks. This has the potential to increase upwelling and thus cause greater cooling in that region.

[Ptarmigan]

Would it be a first if a super El Nino year like 2015 precedes a neutral year? The big Nino events like in 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2009 were all followed by La Nina. Although someone could always argue that there's a first for everything...

1897-1898 and 1983-1984 were a weak to moderate La Nina following strong El Nino.

MEI 1871-2005
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

[Hunabku]

Would it be a first if a super El Nino year like 2015 precedes a neutral year? The big Nino events like in 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2009 were all followed by La Nina. Although someone could always argue that there's a first for everything...

1897-1898 and 1983-1984 were a weak to moderate La Nina following strong El Nino.

MEI 1871-2005
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

One will note that during a positive PDO Ninas don't get as strong.

[Hunabku]

Earlier today Michael Ventrice tweeted the ECMWF ensemble forecast of 850 mb zonal wind anomalies (5N-5S). Note the increased easterlies predicted over the equatorial Pacific during the next two weeks. This has the potential to increase upwelling and thus cause greater cooling in that region.

Hmm interesting to see if this verifies as a lesser model doesn't seem to be getting fully onboard yet.

[CaliforniaResident]

Could this be like failure of much predicted El Nino to develop in 2014-2015 that morphed into the super El Nino the year afterwards?
La Nina fails to develop this summer and fall but the atmospheric conditions set themselves up (PDO goes to neutral this fall and flips to negative in winter) and we get a very strong La Nina set in the summer of 2017 that carries us through the springs of 2018 and possibly beyond.

[Ntxw]

Could this be like failure of much predicted El Nino to develop in 2014-2015 that morphed into the super El Nino the year afterwards?
La Nina fails to develop this summer and fall but the atmospheric conditions set themselves up (PDO goes to neutral this fall and flips to negative in winter) and we get a very strong La Nina set in the summer of 2017 that carries us through the springs of 2018 and possibly beyond.

That is a reasonable possibility. The first year weak Nina being a sacrificial lamb to change the background state and better precondition the following year. It's hard shaking off the long duration Nino that really began in 2014 with the +PDO flip. Unlike 1997-1998 when the Nino was sandwiched between La Ninas.

[Yellow Evan]

Could this be like failure of much predicted El Nino to develop in 2014-2015 that morphed into the super El Nino the year afterwards?
La Nina fails to develop this summer and fall but the atmospheric conditions set themselves up (PDO goes to neutral this fall and flips to negative in winter) and we get a very strong La Nina set in the summer of 2017 that carries us through the springs of 2018 and possibly beyond.

It certainty could, but I wouldn't count on it.

[bg1]

Could this be like failure of much predicted El Nino to develop in 2014-2015 that morphed into the super El Nino the year afterwards?
La Nina fails to develop this summer and fall but the atmospheric conditions set themselves up (PDO goes to neutral this fall and flips to negative in winter) and we get a very strong La Nina set in the summer of 2017 that carries us through the springs of 2018 and possibly beyond.

That is a reasonable possibility. The first year weak Nina being a sacrificial lamb to change the background state and better precondition the following year. ...

Really? Has this ever happened before? I thought I remember reading somewhere on here that La Ninas don't work the same way; the longer it's suppressed, the weaker it will be.

[cycloneye]

Weak La Nina is what CPC predicts and is a 50% by ASO.



http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

[Hunabku]

OK here is a great short article by NOAA that talks about previous super Ninos/Ninas and about possibilities for our developing Nina.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... =hootsuite

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/753945406514397184

[Ntxw]

They have backed off considerably. Last year at this time we had the 5 trimonthly and El Nino was well established by this time and during ASO. We will not likely even get one trimonthly until JAS at the earliest if that. Officially we will probably stay neutral until October or November if we do manage to tank the weeklies.

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/753945406514397184

WOW? Honestly doesnt appear that there's much support for La Nina conditions even through Oct./Nov., and frankly a tremendous amount of spread going out from there.

[chaser1]

Earlier today Michael Ventrice tweeted the ECMWF ensemble forecast of 850 mb zonal wind anomalies (5N-5S). Note the increased easterlies predicted over the equatorial Pacific during the next two weeks. This has the potential to increase upwelling and thus cause greater cooling in that region.

Granted that the zonal wind forecast is a specific measured 5N - 5S flow, but on a broader regional scale its interesting how the very conditions presently conducive for tropical cyclone devlopment in the far east Pac, seems to also be a bit of a contributing factor towards a broader spread of upwelling conditions at latitudes further north. As alluded to in the 12Z Six E discusssion ("...the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by early Saturday, and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. After that time, the system is expected to move over water that has been cooled by the previous couple of hurricanes...", upwelling a little further north is obviously occuring by the recent increase in tropical cyclone activity and tracks. Not at all a factor in the larger La Nina discussion but just found a bit interesting in the overall "inter-play" with the eventual shift of activity towards the Atlantic basin with time.

[NDG]

Big bust by the Euro in the short term, so what if the Euro is also going to bust over the next couple of months? The possibility is there, IMO.

[chaser1]

As an afterthought, it became that much more clear to me that my point above is really so much less significant than the upwelling caused and measured over such a larger (and further west) region of ocean, than the a far smaller and narrow area of upwelling caused by recent prior tropical cyclone tracks.