chaser1 wrote::uarrow: I didn't know that?! All along I would've guess the opposite. I think that answers another question I had then. So I assume that the EURO's failure to nail down a 3 month ENSO forecast during a benign and neutral period, likely has little or nothing to do with its standard level of 10 day dynamic forecast accuracy.
When the ENSO signal is strong, there is more certainty as to how the atmosphere is going to behave in the long run. During a strong event,the atmosphere is going to remain largely consistent with what is occurring at the sea surface. Because of this, dynamical model simulations are more likely to resemble reality during a robust El Nino or La Nina. During a weak/failed event, models may pick up on the signal at the sea surface and predict that ocean-atmosphere coupling will result in a strengthening event; while there may not be an actual response in the atmosphere and further development. In 2012 and 2014, several models were predicting El Nino to develop- but in both cases, there were no changes in the easterlies to reinforce the existing SST anomalies.
As for the comparison between ENSO forecasts and the Euro's 10 day forecasts- I doubt that there is any relationship. Not only is ENSO a long term signal- not a weather pattern, but the model makes long-term ENSO forecasts in a different way than short term forecasts. The Euro does not simply extend its 10 day forecast into the long term to predict ENSO--it uses several parameterizations that filter out short term variability to make long term prediction possible. For example, the model will not predict seasonal precipitation anomalies in the ENSO regions by forecasting future individual weather patterns using short-term prediction methods--but will parameterize the net thunderstorm activity using factors such as sea surface temperatures, long term atmospheric variability (ie. MJO), etc.
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I didn't know that?! All along I would've guess the opposite. I think that answers another question I had then. So I assume that the EURO's failure to nail down a 3 month ENSO forecast during a benign and neutral period, likely has little or nothing to do with its standard level of 10 day dynamic forecast accuracy.
