ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

hmmm

[url]https://i.imgur.com/5LnDCUF.png[url]

I know right? That's ridiculous.

[NotSparta]

hmmm

[url]https://i.imgur.com/5LnDCUF.png[url]

I know right? That's ridiculous.

So, assuming the atmospheric forcing is as strong as 2015, this is a repeat

[tolakram]

Please remember to explain your posts, otherwise this thread isn't useful to those trying to come here and learn or contribute. I know I'm guilty of this myself sometimes.

[Kingarabian]

The starking resemblance that the current snapshot of the subsurface has with 2015 is ridiculous/crazy. Because 2014-2015-2016 was a rare double El Nino, that also had a rare super El Nino-- and for their to be the slightest opportunity that such an episode may repeat itself again this soon... I think that it's almost unheard of.

[Kingarabian]

hmmm

[url]https://i.imgur.com/5LnDCUF.png[url]

I know right? That's ridiculous.

So, assuming the atmospheric forcing is as strong as 2015, this is a repeat

MJO Uturning back into the circle is a start.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1103422138210545664

[Kingarabian]

SOI:
March 6th: -8.66
March 7th: -7.85
I think the negative daily's will continue to pile up since the negative VP anomalies are moving across the MC and into the WPAC.

MSLP/VP configuration over the Pacific through hours 96/120 on tonight's 00z Euro run resembles a low amplitude phase 8. So there could be a WWB pretty soon if this persists.

[Kingarabian]

I'm going to keep the comparisons focused on 2015 and 1997 until the possibility of a super El Nino decreases or is gone.

2019 so far is warmer @ Nino 3.4 compared to 2015 and 1997. But 2015 and 1997 have a full fledged WWB over the dateline at this time, that rapidly warms up Nino 3.4 thus triggering those super El Nino's.

[NotSparta]

I'm going to keep the comparisons focused on 2015 and 1997 until the possibility of a super El Nino decreases or is gone.

2019 so far is warmer @ Nino 3.4 compared to 2015 and 1997. But 2015 and 1997 have a full fledged WWB over the dateline at this time, that rapidly warms up Nino 3.4 thus triggering those super El Nino's.

https://i.imgur.com/P7NLw7e.png

Not disagreeing (it indeed is possible), but there is one requisite that appears to be missing - wintertime, decently strong +PMM. Super niños are extreme anomalies, thus they need a lot going for them. This isn't a good sign for a super Niño, but doesn't leave out a weaker Niño.


1997 DJF PMM avg:

+4.21

2015 DJF PMM avg:

+5.27

2019 DJF PMM avg:

+1.43



Obviously, 2019 stands out. However, a strong +PMM this month may heighten the odds

[Kingarabian]

I'm going to keep the comparisons focused on 2015 and 1997 until the possibility of a super El Nino decreases or is gone.

2019 so far is warmer @ Nino 3.4 compared to 2015 and 1997. But 2015 and 1997 have a full fledged WWB over the dateline at this time, that rapidly warms up Nino 3.4 thus triggering those super El Nino's.

https://i.imgur.com/P7NLw7e.png

Not disagreeing (it indeed is possible), but there is one requisite that appears to be missing - wintertime, decently strong +PMM. Super niños are extreme anomalies, thus they need a lot going for them. This isn't a good sign for a super Niño, but doesn't leave out a weaker Niño.


1997 DJF PMM avg:

+4.21

2015 DJF PMM avg:

+5.27

2019 DJF PMM avg:

+1.43



Obviously, 2019 stands out. However, a strong +PMM this month may heighten the odds

Definetely tough to get an El Nino, much less a super El Nino.
I know 2015 had the warm PDO and PMM from 2014 going for it, but 1997 had nothing prior, and the PMM looks very incoherent in March 1997:

[Kingarabian]

Widespread +5C/+6C on the latest subsurface frame.

[Shell Mound]

Widespread +5C/+6C on the latest subsurface frame.

[CyclonicFury]

Widespread +5C/+6C on the latest subsurface frame.

https://i.imgur.com/veHoURY.png

Going to be very difficult to avoid a continued El Niño with subsurface heat content that impressive. It's unlikely that we will see a 1997/2015 repeat, but a strong El Niño is definitely a possibility.

[Ntxw]

I do agree with most 2015/1997 is low chance but definitely being spooked. Now it wouldn't unreasonable to think things could escalate further into a strong Nino. Want to see more successive WWBs. That CAT5 STY in Feb was probably an ominous sign. Also the weakening of the ENSO conditions late last year (like 2014) probably allowed this to happen.



Spread for this time of year is unusually (relative to period) small. So El Nino conditions likely will persist. Nearly all keep this as a Nino through Fall.

[Kingarabian]

Widespread +5C/+6C on the latest subsurface frame.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/veHoURY.png[url]

Ominous look to it with each updated frame. That strong WWB in February surely didn't go without any effect.I remember this time through April in 2015, when the subsurface pool went from a swath of isolated +2C/+3C anoms to deep +5C/+6C anoms.

[Kingarabian]

I do agree with most 2015/1997 is low chance but definitely being spooked. Now it wouldn't unreasonable to think things could escalate further into a strong Nino. Want to see more successive WWBs. That CAT5 STY in Feb was probably an ominous sign. Also the weakening of the ENSO conditions late last year (like 2014) probably allowed this to happen.

[url]https://images2.imgbox.com/76/ec/gxppwnjs_o.gif[url]

Spread for this time of year is unusually (relative to period) small. So El Nino conditions likely will persist. Nearly all keep this as a Nino through Fall.

1997/2015 had big WWB's during the month of March through April. We haven't had a WWB in March but we also haven't seen any El Nino damaging trade bursts. There's also more OHC at this stage compared to 1997/2015, so that MAY offset the absence of westerlies.

Euro and CFS show the MJO back in phase 8 or phase 1 by the last week of March, which will encourage a WWB between late March and the first week of April.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,have the trades that Ventrice showed in the past few days have come to fructition? I ask because Niño 3.4 has dropped recently.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1104392784113557504

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,have the trades that Ventrice showed in the past few days have come to fructition? I ask because Niño 3.4 has dropped recently.

I think the trades have been closer to normal. The buoys are not showing big dips over Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4. They continue to show a large region of +1C or greater stretching from Nino 3 to Nino 4 (but again I'm not sure if I'm reading the buoys correctly). There's a possibility of a slight dip on Monday to account for the trades returning.

[Kingarabian]