ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hurricaneman]

Things can change quickly, tropical tidbits shows the 1-2 region of the ENSO at 1.3C above normal and seems to be dropping and with the SOI not shifting towards the negative it looks like its heading towards the Modoki side for an El Nino if we get an El Nino

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/839533031190835200

[cycloneye]

The March CPC update of 3/9/17 has Neutral conditions thru te Summer and El Nino is possible by the fall.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
09 March 2017
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development into the fall.

La Niña conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were -0.3°C in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions, and +1.5°C in the easternmost Niño-1+2 region [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during January and was slightly positive when averaged across the eastern Pacific [Fig. 3], a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds were near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.


Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017). Because of typically high uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of the year for the upcoming spring and summer, and the lingering La Niña-like tropical convection patterns, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a ~60% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Niño toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance in September-November). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).



http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

[Kingarabian]

SOI at its lowest since November 2016.

[hurricanetrack]

Things are substantially different than they were during this time frame in 2015. The sub-surface anomalies for one are nothing like what we had then. The lack of WWB and overall massive drop on the SOI (hasn't happened) suggests to me that warm neutral seems likely during the peak months of the Atlantic season. I mean even 50% chance by ASO at this distance out in time is not saying much.

[cycloneye]

As always CPC has another great blog about the state of ENSO and discussion of the March update. They are on the fence.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... date-fence

[Hurricaneman]

As always CPC has another great blog about the state of ENSO and discussion of the March update. They are on the fence.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... date-fence

We probably won't know much until April or May but it could lead to an El Nino Madoki or +neutral

[Kingarabian]

Things are substantially different than they were during this time frame in 2015. The sub-surface anomalies for one are nothing like what we had then. The lack of WWB and overall massive drop on the SOI (hasn't happened) suggests to me that warm neutral seems likely during the peak months of the Atlantic season. I mean even 50% chance by ASO at this distance out in time is not saying much.

No idea why we are even comparing this current ENSO event to 2015. That's an extremely historical event. 2009's El-Nino would be a better comparison, and 2009's El-Nino didn't take off until May.

[cycloneye]

The Febuary PDO data is out and it was slightly down to +0.70.That is down from the +0.77 reading of January.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

That's not too significant of a change and the PDO remains positive for another month in a row since 2014. The North Pacific overall is very warm except for a cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska. I don't think we will see any significant shifts of the PDO unless a decent El Nino or La Nina shifts it. Overall if it does go negative it would be brief and closer to neutrality, same thing for warm readings. As far as I can see with the CFSv2 the background North Pacific conditions will likely remain so.

As far as any El Nino, still no signs yet of WWB or sloshing of the EQ Pac waters. Everything is very much driven by seasonal variability and shallow surface winds. Closer to the dateline should cool some with trades, while Nino 1+2 could warm more in the coming days with weakened trades out that way.

[cycloneye]

Trade winds are up so El Nino if it comes will have to wait a while.

[Ntxw]

Will be -0.2C next

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C.It was at 0.0C last week.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Macrocane]

Thankfully no signs of an imminent El Niño yet.

[Kingarabian]

Daily SOI down to -6.

[Hurricaneman]

The Enso 1\2 is up to 2.4c above normal, thats something and could easily change by this time next week

[tolakram]

I don't follow ENSO closely enough to participate much here but I'm wondering about the spring predictability barrier and why some experts easily went all in with another el nino when we see these kinds of modeling issues every year.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842019326626533376

[gatorcane]

I don't follow ENSO closely enough to participate much here but I'm wondering about the spring predictability barrier and why some experts easily went all in with another el nino when we see these kinds of modeling issues every year.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 6626533376

Not to mention the chances of a decent El Nino just two years after the kind of El Nino we saw in 2015 are quite low looking at history. I can see a weak El Nino maybe but I doubt it would be anything to significantly suppress Atlantic activity this year. Lots of latent heat out there from that 2015 El Nino, Atlantic should be quite active this year in my opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't follow ENSO closely enough to participate much here but I'm wondering about the spring predictability barrier and why some experts easily went all in with another el nino when we see these kinds of modeling issues every year.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 6626533376

Not to mention the chances of a decent El Nino just two years after the kind of El Nino we saw in 2015 are quite low looking at history. I can see a weak El Nino maybe but I doubt it would be anything to significantly suppress Atlantic activity this year. Lots of latent heat out there from that 2015 El Nino, Atlantic should be quite active this year in my opinion.

Staranger things have happened in the tropics(especially as of recently). Another significant El Niño just two years after the one we saw in 2015 is rare but not unlikely to happen IMO.

[Ntxw]

We don't need an El Nino to suppress Atlantic activity. 2013 was a prime example, if rising air is favored in the EPAC or CPAC then sinking motion could dominate the ATL. Not saying that it will but even a weak El Nino can have effects, or it may not. This year so far doesn't look at favorable as last year was at least this point in time. But I do agree a strong El Nino is probably unlikely.