ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

[Kingarabian]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

That episode was similar to the 2016 Nina. Barely made it. And one could argue they both weren't official events.

[Yellow Evan]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

That episode was similar to the 2016 Nina. Barely made it. And one could argue they both weren't official events.

I put 2014 in the same category as 2012 and 1993 and 1990. Botched el Nino events.

[Hunabku]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

That episode was similar to the 2016 Nina. Barely made it. And one could argue they both weren't official events.

Opps edit - sorry Kingarabian you were talking about nina my bad.

A lot of people got confused because 2016, compared to 1998, didn't have the same ocean warming pattern. But make no mistake, 2016 wasn't classified as a modoki (central-based) event but rather a more typical 'hybrid' el nino - a combination of a central and an eastern-based like 1997-98.

[Hunabku]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

Correct, it was predominantly classified as an El Nino Modoki event. "'modoki' being a Japanese word roughly equivalent to 'almost, but not quite' in English."

See here: https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... ct/32362/0
and here: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... _s.html.en

To me the most striking thing about our latest el nino was how warm the ocean is going into and even coming out of the event. The same could be said about the weakness of our latest nina. Seems like we are firmly in a positive decadal nino cycle where the odds are against those who are betting on more nina-ish events.

[Ntxw]

The CPC doesn't dub an event modoki or not. If it achieves 0.5C or greater it is then simply classified as an El Nino. Then strength of the ENSO event is then considered as weak, moderate, or strong. West based, east based, central based, full basin is an arbitrary value that can change not just between different enso events but even during a life cycle of a particular Nino (may start east based, go west, then spread throughout, and in any order). 2014-2015 by ONI is officially a weak Nino that was part of a multiyear El Nino which included the Super event of 2015-2016. Began OND 2014 and ended AMJ 2016.



If you want to know where the deep tropical convection is which is the main key (shift of the walker cell) you need to look at where ~>28C actual temps are in the Nino regions. That is the real driver of the ENSO patterns

[Hunabku]

The CPC doesn't dub an event modoki or not. If it achieves 0.5C or greater it is then simply classified as an El Nino. Then strength of the ENSO event is then considered as weak, moderate, or strong. West based, east based, central based, full basin is an arbitrary value that can change not just between different enso events but even during a life cycle of a particular Nino (may start east based, go west, then spread throughout, and in any order). 2014-2015 by ONI is officially a weak Nino that was part of a multiyear El Nino which included the Super event of 2015-2016. Began OND 2014 and ended AMJ 2016.

Thanks for helping to clarify this. Lots of ways of looking at it and classifying it. I actually like looking at it more as a multiyear event. Especially makes more sense considering the decadal background state.

[Yellow Evan]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

Correct, it was predominantly classified as an El Nino Modoki event. "'modoki' being a Japanese word roughly equivalent to 'almost, but not quite' in English."

See here: https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/ ... ct/32362/0
and here: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... _s.html.en

To me the most striking thing about our latest el nino was how warm the ocean is going into and even coming out of the event. The same could be said about the weakness of our latest nina. Seems like we are firmly in a positive decadal nino cycle where the odds are against those who are betting on more nina-ish events.

modoki is generally went above normal SST's appear in 3.4 and near to below normal ones in Nino 1+2.

One of your links says precisely that. "The El Niño Modoki phenomenon is characterized by the anomalously warm central equatorial Pacific flanked by anomalously cool regions in both west and east. Such zonal SST gradients result in anomalous two-cell Walker Circulation over the tropical Pacific, with a wet region in the central Pacific."

[Yellow Evan]

The CPC doesn't dub an event modoki or not. If it achieves 0.5C or greater it is then simply classified as an El Nino. Then strength of the ENSO event is then considered as weak, moderate, or strong. West based, east based, central based, full basin is an arbitrary value that can change not just between different enso events but even during a life cycle of a particular Nino (may start east based, go west, then spread throughout, and in any order). 2014-2015 by ONI is officially a weak Nino that was part of a multiyear El Nino which included the Super event of 2015-2016. Began OND 2014 and ended AMJ 2016.



If you want to know where the deep tropical convection is which is the main key (shift of the walker cell) you need to look at where ~>28C actual temps are in the Nino regions. That is the real driver of the ENSO patterns

Did the CPC change their dataset? I don't recall 2014 being considered a Nino last year.

[Kingarabian]

The CPC doesn't dub an event modoki or not. If it achieves 0.5C or greater it is then simply classified as an El Nino. Then strength of the ENSO event is then considered as weak, moderate, or strong. West based, east based, central based, full basin is an arbitrary value that can change not just between different enso events but even during a life cycle of a particular Nino (may start east based, go west, then spread throughout, and in any order). 2014-2015 by ONI is officially a weak Nino that was part of a multiyear El Nino which included the Super event of 2015-2016. Began OND 2014 and ended AMJ 2016.



If you want to know where the deep tropical convection is which is the main key (shift of the walker cell) you need to look at where ~>28C actual temps are in the Nino regions. That is the real driver of the ENSO patterns

Did the CPC change their dataset? I don't recall 2014 being considered a Nino last year.

This. How was 2016 a Nina? I recall some of those months never making an averaged -05C...

[Kingarabian]

2014-15 wasn't even an El Nino year.

That episode was similar to the 2016 Nina. Barely made it. And one could argue they both weren't official events.

Opps edit - sorry Kingarabian you were talking about nina my bad.

A lot of people got confused because 2016, compared to 1998, didn't have the same ocean warming pattern. But make no mistake, 2016 wasn't classified as a modoki (central-based) event but rather a more typical 'hybrid' el nino - a combination of a central and an eastern-based like 1997-98.

Lol no problem. ENSO can be quite confusing

[Ntxw]

The CPC doesn't dub an event modoki or not. If it achieves 0.5C or greater it is then simply classified as an El Nino. Then strength of the ENSO event is then considered as weak, moderate, or strong. West based, east based, central based, full basin is an arbitrary value that can change not just between different enso events but even during a life cycle of a particular Nino (may start east based, go west, then spread throughout, and in any order). 2014-2015 by ONI is officially a weak Nino that was part of a multiyear El Nino which included the Super event of 2015-2016. Began OND 2014 and ended AMJ 2016.



If you want to know where the deep tropical convection is which is the main key (shift of the walker cell) you need to look at where ~>28C actual temps are in the Nino regions. That is the real driver of the ENSO patterns

Did the CPC change their dataset? I don't recall 2014 being considered a Nino last year.

CPC made note that they were adjusting and changing the method base averages with ersstv4. New bases are calculated from the previous 5 year period vs 30 year periods. This is to account for warming averages. So the dataset did change and 2014-2015 did qualify as it did during real time, was lost and came back in the new set.

[Ntxw]

Will be 0.5C this week. First reading at El Nino values of the year

[TheStormExpert]

So we're officially in an El Niño again?

[RL3AO]

So we're officially in an El Niño again?

We still need three months (?) of at least +0.5°C before it's official.

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC update of 4/24/17 that has Nino 3.4 up to +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

So we're officially in an El Niño again?

We still need three months (?) of at least +0.5°C before it's official.

Yes, it would need to continue and preferably steadily rise. But it is a first step, a invisible barrier passed per say.

850 u winds does now show a potential WWB could come within believable range.

[Kingarabian]

So we're officially in an El Niño again?

850 u winds does now show a potential WWB could come within believable range.

I think even if we don't get a meaningful WWB, I doubt we will see any chance of the trades becoming strong again (to help that cold pool reach the surface) with the way the future of the SOI looks. So basically that shallow yet somehow infinite moderate warm pool will remain in place and basically feed the Nino regions.

[TheStormExpert]

El Niño is looking less likely according to the latest CFS.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/856673625260384262

[WeatherEmperor]

El Niño is looking less likely according to the latest CFS.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/856673625260384262

Is it possible the CFS is finally realizing the sub surface cool pools wont be able to sustain a full El Nino event?


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