ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

Looks like this week's update will show Nino 3.4 has warmed up to -0.5C while Nino 1+2 has cooled down further down -1.0C

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 4/9/18 has Niño 3.4 warming up to -0.5C from the -0.7C that was on last weeks update.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[CyclonicFury]

Interested to see if this Thursday CPC issues the final La Niña advisory. I do not think they will issue an El Niño watch just yet, maybe in May if ENSO is creeping up closer to +0 by then.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like this week's update will show Nino 3.4 has warmed up to -0.5C while Nino 1+2 has cooled down further down -1.0C

NDG, to me it looks more and more like a Madoki probably around peak of season (August to Oct). But currently I’m skeptical after last year’s consensus of an impending El Nino. It is so hard make a call in April.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like this week's update will show Nino 3.4 has warmed up to -0.5C while Nino 1+2 has cooled down further down -1.0C

NDG, to me it looks more and more like a Madoki probably around peak of season (August to Oct). But currently I’m skeptical after last year’s consensus of an impending El Nino. It is so hard make a call in April.

While it's true that its quite difficult to make an El Nino call during April, it's even harder to call a Modoki El Nino this early.

[Kingarabian]

Ignore the previous Euro hovmoller I posted in regards to the predicted 850mb wind activity across the Pacific. Looks like Dr. Ryan Maue's climo used on the hovmoller only goes back 20 years and it does not include ENSO events prior to 1998, thus the anomalies are skewered. I'll just stick to using Dr. Michael Ventrice's products.

GFS has a trade burst over the central Pacific by the middle of April:



Euro keeps the trades relatively relaxed in the same time period:

[StruThiO]

not the most conducive for el nino growth yet

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/983461178956533762

[cycloneye]

All ENSO areas are going down right now with the biggest crash at Niño 1+2 (-1.817C at 12z) as is usual the big swings up and down in that area in particular. (April 9)

[cycloneye]

More stuff from Webb.

@webberweather
EP warming early can hinder oncoming NINOs & the non-linear coupled feedbacks are usually zzzz in comparison w/o warming closer to the dateline. Apart from the bgd climate shift, this is probably a good reason most NINOs have started in the CP after 1976

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/983513748592889858




@webberweather
+PMM years that were successful in producing subsequent El Ninos usually have a stronger +IOD/SIOD in the preceding spring. Warming (if any) in the TP is focused west of the dateline and the tropical Atlantic is cool. This year seems to be following in their footsteps thus far.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/983524143697223680

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://imgur.com/6yltAks


https://imgur.com/YRsXsIQ
ENSO/SST Tracker (04/08/2018)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
10 April 2018 Next issue 24 April 2018
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

El Niño–Southern Oscillation influence on the climate remains weak
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most models predict a neutral ENSO pattern will persist through the southern autumn and winter.

Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are at neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are close to average for this time of year. Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range. In the atmosphere, cloud and pressure patterns remain weakly La Niña-like, but trade winds are close to average.

Climate models indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will continue to rise, but remain ENSO neutral for the remainder of the southern autumn and winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Most models indicate a neutral IOD is likely for autumn and early winter. However, two of six models indicate a negative IOD is possible during winter. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences a wetter than average winter-spring.

Climate model outlooks for ENSO and the IOD have lower accuracy during autumn than at other times of the year. Hence, current model outlooks of these climate drivers should be viewed with some caution

NINO34 probabilities http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... ific-Ocean



.................................................................................................................
JMA El Niño Outlook ( April 2018 - October 2018 )
Last Updated: 10 April 2018
( Next update will be on 11 May 2018 )

It is considered that La Niña conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that La Niña conditions will end in boreal spring (90%).
ENSO-neutral conditions are likely during boreal summer (70%).

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/pr ... tlook.html
lots of plots and info.

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
Overall it doesn't matter a much (yet) esp when you're still in a linear -ENSO feedback regime, which why I'm not too worried about the preceding NINA forcing to be too much to overcome because it's statistically identical to 1968 and the aforementioned slew of pre 1950 years.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/983680665739776000

[CyclonicFury]

I think Webb is too bullish on El Niño. He said back in February that we would probably be in weak El Niño conditions by late spring, and was even comparing this year to 1997. Here it is April 10, and we are still at cool neutral/borderline La Niña conditions. With an upcoming trade burst, it’s very hard to imagine any El Niño event starting before June/July.

[crownweather]

I think Webb is too bullish on El Niño. He said back in February that we would probably be in weak El Niño conditions by late spring, and was even comparing this year to 1997. Here it is April 10, and we are still at cool neutral/borderline La Niña conditions. With an upcoming trade burst, it’s very hard to imagine any El Niño event starting before June/July.

Gotta agree with you. I think a neutral ENSO is very likely with probably readings on the warm neutral side (Nino 3+4 of +0.2 to +0.4). Any El Nino, I think may wait until autumn.

[CyclonicFury]

I think Webb is too bullish on El Niño. He said back in February that we would probably be in weak El Niño conditions by late spring, and was even comparing this year to 1997. Here it is April 10, and we are still at cool neutral/borderline La Niña conditions. With an upcoming trade burst, it’s very hard to imagine any El Niño event starting before June/July.

Gotta agree with you. I think a neutral ENSO is very likely with probably readings on the warm neutral side (Nino 3+4 of +0.2 to +0.4). Any El Nino, I think may wait until autumn.

Agreed, highly unlikely we will see La Niña return for a third year based on climatology and the subsurface warm pool. My best guess is warm neutral ENSO for hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

I prefer to wait for the CPC Diagnostic update and the CPC blog discussion of the 12th to see if they have something to say about all these things that people in Twitter are posting.

@forecastguy
This may be one of those cases though where an arbitrary 5°N - 5°S box fails to capture important physical processes.

As we get into Boreal summer, this mega-warm ribbon from 10°N - 20°N becomes more important... One can argue it's already in El Nino





 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/983737926105387009

[NDG]

Ignore the previous Euro hovmoller I posted in regards to the predicted 850mb wind activity across the Pacific. Looks like Dr. Ryan Maue's climo used on the hovmoller only goes back 20 years and it does not include ENSO events prior to 1998, thus the anomalies are skewered. I'll just stick to using Dr. Michael Ventrice's products.

GFS has a trade burst over the central Pacific by the middle of April:

https://i.imgur.com/oEOL0NW.gif

Euro keeps the trades relatively relaxed in the same time period:

https://i.imgur.com/GJxq7D6.jpg

I wouldn't call it that relaxed, still fairly strong trades along the equatorial Nino Regions: 1+2, 3 & 3.4 by the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Ignore the previous Euro hovmoller I posted in regards to the predicted 850mb wind activity across the Pacific. Looks like Dr. Ryan Maue's climo used on the hovmoller only goes back 20 years and it does not include ENSO events prior to 1998, thus the anomalies are skewered. I'll just stick to using Dr. Michael Ventrice's products.

GFS has a trade burst over the central Pacific by the middle of April:

https://i.imgur.com/oEOL0NW.gif

Euro keeps the trades relatively relaxed in the same time period:

https://i.imgur.com/GJxq7D6.jpg

I wouldn't call it that relaxed, still fairly strong trades along the equatorial Nino Regions: 1+2, 3 & 3.4 by the Euro.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/oAFoN1L.jpg[mg]

They're slightly enhanced, which is otherwise typically normal since the winds naturally move east to west. Mike Ventrice doesn't cite strong trade bursts unless the trades are -8 sigma or less, which is what the GFS is showing. These are the game changers if they are sustained for a long period of time, as they impede warming/trigger upwelling Kelvins.

[wxman57]

New ECMWF Nino 3.4 forecast is out. Can't show it here, but it is more strongly indicating sharply warming waters in the Tropical Pacific, up to +0.7C by the beginning of August. Last year's April forecast was terrible, of course.

In addition, the EC seasonal forecast continues to go for ACE 60% of normal and only 10 named storms with 4 hurricanes. They provide a verification of previous such forecasts, and the skill was nearly nonexistent. For the record, the EC predicted ACE 70% of normal in 2017.

Here's a comparison between April 2017 and April 2018 SST anomalies. There's no comparison in the tropical Pacific. Waters are much cooler than last year. MDR in the Atlantic is cooler, too.