ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

0.4c this week

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 7/9/18 has Niño 3.4 remaining at +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 slightly cooled down last week while Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 warmed up.

I agree with all of this except didn’t Niño 3.4 remain at +0.4?

Ooops, I was looking at the graphics not the actual written update.

[Kingarabian]

It's been a seesaw for sure. When Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 warm, Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 lag or cool. Now with Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 warming, Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 are cooling.

[Kingarabian]

Dr. Ventrice tweeted a lot of useful information today. Visit his page to view them all.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016714419827593216




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016458184230359041




From the looks of it, he's all in on El Nino this year.

[AtlanticWind]

After he predicted a quiet September in the Atlantic last year right before all h*'ll broke loose
I have kinda doubted his predictions.

That is likely unfair as he seems like a respected hurricane expert.

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
SSTs have continued to cool to the northwest of Australia and across Indonesia in recent weeks.

This cool anomaly over the Maritime Continent will work to suppress convection & supports the development an #ElNiño-like atmospheric pattern in the tropical Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1016991027800838144

[CyclonicFury]

CPC has released their July ENSO update. No El Niño yet, but they give a 70% chance of an El Niño developing this winter.

[cycloneye]

CPC Jyly update still has El Niño Watch but goes up to 65% by Fall and 70% by Winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml



https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume

[cycloneye]

As always,they add some discussion to what the update said in the ENSO Blog

[Haris]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 9010421760

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624




Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!

Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).

[NotSparta]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624[tweet]

Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!

Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).

There's a much larger effect on ENSO when they're centered over the equator. It doesn't help as much when the signal is pushed to north or south of the equator

[Siker]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624[tweet]

Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!

Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).

There's a much larger effect on ENSO when they're centered over the equator. It doesn't help as much when the signal is pushed to north or south of the equator

While that definitely sounds intuitive, I'd like to see data or a study that backs it up.

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624[tweet]

Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!

Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).

There's a much larger effect on ENSO when they're centered over the equator. It doesn't help as much when the signal is pushed to north or south of the equator

Certainly true, didn't realize that it was a different latitude. Ventrice usually posts those Hovmollers showing the winds @ the equator.

[StruThiO]

Most recent frame shows the warm pool weakening IMO.

[NDG]

Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.

[NotSparta]

Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]

The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit

[NDG]

Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]

The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit

Agree and all of the sudden 2009 is not a good analog year to use for this year so far.

[Kingarabian]

Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]

The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit

If I recall correctly, it literally shut down any El Nino chance last season.