ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[StruThiO]

tweet

not to be used as a prediction or anything but still a neat way of visualizing how cool 3.4 is atm relative to nino years

[Kingarabian]

Euro 850mb wind forecast shows non existent trades over the CPAC/EPAC to start June.

[Kingarabian]

Latest CFS 850mb wind forecast is weird since it shows a moderate-strong WWB over the CPAC but moderate easterlies in the EPAC. Usually when there's a WWB in the CPAC it spreads into the EPAC, so i'm not sure what's happening here:

[NotSparta]

Euro 850mb wind forecast shows non existent trades over the CPAC/EPAC to start June.

When it's zero, it does not mean non-existent trades, but average trades. I do understand what you are trying to get across though

[NotSparta]

Kingarabian, does the ESPI have much bearing on ENSO? Not too sure about its relationships to future ENSO trends, if there are any.

[NDG]

Euro 850mb wind forecast shows non existent trades over the CPAC/EPAC to start June.

When it's zero, it does not mean non-existent trades, but average trades. I do understand what you are trying to get across though

Exactly right, near average trades and no WWBs near the dateline. Mixed signals continues

[NDG]

@Met_mdclark
The American model is dead set on removing the #Nina base state out of the atmosphere 5 days out but then always adjust back in the 1-3 day. The adjustments continue to tell us Nina like behavior likely through June. Details are out to http://Bamwx.com clients. #AGwx #OAtt

 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1001895770830884864

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/t630xJX.jpg[img]

Euro 850mb wind forecast shows non existent trades over the CPAC/EPAC to start June.

When it's zero, it does not mean non-existent trades, but average trades. I do understand what you are trying to get across though

Correct. Technically I should be saying "trades aren't strong enough to promote cooling". But to be clear cut, 0ms on average does not promote cooling.

My understanding of the zonal winds from watching ENSO is this:

When the trade winds are analyzed or forecast to be at or very close to 0ms, warming at the surface is still favored, especially when there is a warm sub-surface pool surfacing. At the same time downwelling Kelvin waves face no resistance and they continue to strengthen. On the buoys, they easily change direction (shift to the N, to the W, and other directions).

Seen a lot of this happen last year where the trades didn't do much until they strengthened when the MJO amplified over the MC and in 2016 when the trades couldn't cool the Nino regions fast enough.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, does the ESPI have much bearing on ENSO? Not too sure about its relationships to future ENSO trends, if there are any.

It's very important as well. As in index it shows what the total rainfall is over regions across the globe, which is associated to the walker cell and where the most upwards motion is situated.



Cycloneye used to post the index for us. I'm going to see if I can find.

Edit: Here's an index. Through April the values line up closely with 2009 and 2006. May looks awfully skewered at -9.9. Lowest and Max on every other month for every other year is -2 <---> +2. The lower the number the more La Nina ish the rain pattern is, the higher the number the more ElNino ish the rain pattern is.

http://eagle1.umd.edu/GPCP_ICDR/Data/ESPI.txt

[NDG]

No help from the MJO over the next couple of weeks for El Nino to pop up quicker than later, per the latest models' forecasts they want to stick it around extreme western Pacific & maritime continent.

[LarryWx]

May SOI comes in at a pretty neutral +2.69. Whereas this isn't indicating upcoming El Niño, it isn't uncommon for the May before a later in the year weak to low end moderate El Niño to be near neutral or even somewhat positive. Usually, though, if there is going to be a weakish El Niño by winter, the SOI will hint at that more and more as the summer progresses. One thing this +2.69 May SOI pretty much eliminates is a very strong El Niño.

[Kingarabian]

No help from the MJO over the next couple of weeks for El Nino to pop up quicker than later, per the latest models' forecasts they want to stick it around extreme western Pacific & maritime continent.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/A3Cx4xM.gif[img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/RySwBxc.gif[img]

MJO being in the circle also helps El Nino chances.

Euro has been struggling with its SOI forecast in the last coupe of days with the last 3 days being positive instead of negative on the SOI, but it still shows for the first 10 days of June being 90% negative on the SOI.

JMA and the CFS continue to have rising VP 200 anomalies moving into the WPAC and eventually into the CPAC-EPAC:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1002133740842242048

[NDG]

Should see next week's update on Nino 3.4 go up to warm neutral, big warm up this week based on buoys. IMO.

[NDG]

No big WWBs over the Pacific over the next 10 days, at least. That should put a stop to the warm up Nino 3.4 had this week. IMO.


@MJVentrice
The current MJO pushing across the Maritime Continent has robust low-level dynamics. Note the eastward propagation of enhanced trades ahead of the convectively active phase of the MJO (centered over the eastern Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent)
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1002544676954664960

[NDG]

Latest Euro's MJO forecast, supports no WWBs near the dateline at least during the first two weeks of June. Weak El Nino during ASO are diminishing, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Latest Euro's MJO forecast, supports no WWBs near the dateline at least during the first two weeks of June. Weak El Nino during ASO are diminishing, IMO.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/TO2HMZK.gif[img]

RMM doesn't always cleanly pick up on MJO migration. The VP 200 MJO associated anomalies from numerous models clearly show rising air moving from the MC into the WPAC then moving into the CPAC and the EPAC. The models are picking up on TC development in the EPAC and in the GOM to prove this.

There are two reasons why there is support for a WWB in June:

1. Because there's going to be anomalous rising air associated with the MJO, a WWB can easily be generated over the eq. pacific.
2.The pressure pattern showing a negative leaning SOI setup till the 11th based on the 12z Euro run and its past runs(Tahiti avg 1014.50/Darwin avg 1013.75), supports a WWB.

Here is the bias corrected Euro MJO forecast:



CFS's entire El Nino forecast is based on a moderate to strong and long occuring WWB over the CPAC in June:

[WeatherEmperor]

Latest Euro's MJO forecast, supports no WWBs near the dateline at least during the first two weeks of June. Weak El Nino during ASO are diminishing, IMO.

[img]https://i.imgu]

RMM doesn't always cleanly pick up on MJO migration. The VP 200 MJO associated anomalies from numerous models clearly show rising air moving from the MC into the WPAC then moving into the CPAC and the EPAC. The models are picking up on TC development in the EPAC and in the GOM to prove this.

There are two reasons why there is support for a WWB in June:

1. Because there's going to be anomalous rising air associated with the MJO, a WWB can easily be generated over the eq. pacific.
2.The pressure pattern showing a negative leaning SOI setup till the 11th based on the 12z Euro run and its past runs(Tahiti avg 1014.50/Darwin avg 1013.75), supports a WWB.

Here is the bias corrected Euro MJO forecast:

[i://i.imgur.com/ORMCYzN.gif[/img]

CFS's entire El Nino forecast is based on a moderate to strong and long occuring WWB over the CPAC in June:

[imgur.com/3AESU64.png[/img]

CFS for June is even more bullish on El Nino compared to May.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NotSparta]

Latest Euro's MJO forecast, supports no WWBs near the dateline at least during the first two weeks of June. Weak El Nino during ASO are diminishing, IMO.

[img]https://i.imgu]

RMM doesn't always cleanly pick up on MJO migration. The VP 200 MJO associated anomalies from numerous models clearly show rising air moving from the MC into the WPAC then moving into the CPAC and the EPAC. The models are picking up on TC development in the EPAC and in the GOM to prove this.

There are two reasons why there is support for a WWB in June:

1. Because there's going to be anomalous rising air associated with the MJO, a WWB can easily be generated over the eq. pacific.
2.The pressure pattern showing a negative leaning SOI setup till the 11th based on the 12z Euro run and its past runs(Tahiti avg 1014.50/Darwin avg 1013.75), supports a WWB.

Here is the bias corrected Euro MJO forecast:

[i://i.imgur.com/ORMCYzN.gif[/img]

CFS's entire El Nino forecast is based on a moderate to strong and long occuring WWB over the CPAC in June:

[imgur.com/3AESU64.png[/img]

CFS for June is even more bullish on El Nino compared to May.

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180602/a5fb59a46a15e9881af7a9a0ec8dd18b.gif[img]



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How are we supposed to get to El Niño within a month? Or am I reading this wrong?

[Kingarabian]

RMM doesn't always cleanly pick up on MJO migration. The VP 200 MJO associated anomalies from numerous models clearly show rising air moving from the MC into the WPAC then moving into the CPAC and the EPAC. The models are picking up on TC development in the EPAC and in the GOM to prove this.

There are two reasons why there is support for a WWB in June:

1. Because there's going to be anomalous rising air associated with the MJO, a WWB can easily be generated over the eq. pacific.
2.The pressure pattern showing a negative leaning SOI setup till the 11th based on the 12z Euro run and its past runs(Tahiti avg 1014.50/Darwin avg 1013.75), supports a WWB.

Here is the bias corrected Euro MJO forecast:

[i://i.imgur.com/ORMCYzN.gif[/img]

CFS's entire El Nino forecast is based on a moderate to strong and long occuring WWB over the CPAC in June:

[imgur.com/3AESU64.png[/img]

CFS for June is even more bullish on El Nino compared to May.

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180602/a5fb59a46a15e9881af7a9a0ec8dd18b.gif[img]



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How are we supposed to get to El Niño within a month? Or am I reading this wrong?

If there were to be an El Nino this year, the CPC will choose the month it was first observed. Based on the CFS, it will be June.

[NotSparta]

CFS for June is even more bullish on El Nino compared to May.

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180602/a5fb59a46a15e9881af7a9a0ec8dd18b.gif[img]



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How are we supposed to get to El Niño within a month? Or am I reading this wrong?

If there were to be an El Nino this year, the CPC will choose the month it was first observed. Based on the CFS, it will be June.

Pretty fast transition that would be. I'm not too surprised anymore, I'm seeing lots of ways 2009 would be an analog between cool Atlantic mdr, the warm pool which looks almost exactly like 2009's, and the (imo) good possibility that it is not east-based (CFS shows below average 1+2 until OND or so)