ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NotSparta]

It gets tossed about quite alot i know. But what be the odds about a nina modoki latter in the year.

Happened last spring before the Niña died

[NDG]

CFS certainly isn’t the most reliable model when it comes to ENSO, but it is worth noting that not one ensemble member of the latest set is forecasting El Niño conditions this fall. It’s also interesting to note that the March CanSIPS came in slightly cooler.

Is not like the ECMWF is any better during the Spring Barrier.

[Kingarabian]

Since ENSO is seeing 2014 comparisons, I thought this would be relevant:

Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014



Lu Dong and Michael McPhaden published a paper in Scientific Reports on 2 February 2018 that describe how in 2014, warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean weakened westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific and helped to arrest the development of a widely anticipated major El Niño. They demonstrated the processes involved using an ensemble of coupled numerical experiments in which observed Indian Ocean SST anomalies in 2014–15 were prescribed but the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system was free to evolve. Results confirmed that warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean created conditions that would have favored strengthening trade winds in the Pacific in 2014 such that only borderline El Niño conditions were evident by the end of the year.

Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014. Science Reports, 8, 2249, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20294-4.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/feature ... lopment-el

[Kingarabian]

A look at the sub-surface developments per the TAO Buoys:

[cycloneye]

CPC monthly update of 3/8/18 has La Niña ending in the March thru May period and then Neutral will prevail thru the rest of 2018,however El Niño chances have gone up from 28% in the Febuary update to now 33%.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
08 March 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.

During February 2018, La Niña weakened, but was still reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly index values were -0.8°C and -0.6°C in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions, respectively, and were near zero in the surrounding Niño.4 and Niño1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. While negative anomalies were maintained near the surface, the sub-surface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) warmed to near zero [Fig. 3]. This warming was due to the eastward propagation of above-average temperatures along the thermocline in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric anomalies typical of La Niña weakened considerably across the tropical Pacific. Convection was suppressed near Indonesia and was only weakly enhanced over the far western Pacific [Fig. 5]. Also, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level winds remained anomalously westerly over the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system suggests La Niña is weakening.

Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2018 [Fig. 6]. The forecast consensus similarly favors a transition during the spring, with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the summer. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume

[cycloneye]

As always,the ENSO CPC blog has interesting things to look at about how they reached the conclusions about what to expect for ENSO in the next few months.

ENSO CPC Blog



In fact, the Pacific Meridional Mode index (maintained by our guest blog author Dan Vimont) is the most positive it’s been in years. The contrast between warmer north and cooler south can influence wind patterns along the equator, thereby influencing ENSO. Of course, the global climate system is big and complicated, and it’s too early to say if this strong PMM will be a major factor as the year goes on… but you can bet we’ll be watching it.

[StruThiO]

What are some thoughts on the latest subsurface frames?





Realistically, how likely is it for these positive anomalies to make their way to the surface with a positive SOI right now? I love learning about this stuff.

[Kingarabian]

It'll reach the surface very soon. You can see how the cooler anomalies just to the east of it continue to shrink. It'll be at the surface by the end of March. With a positive SOI, that means the trades are dominating. If the trades continue to dominate, then the surfacing warm anomalies will be "cooled", and the SSTs will not rise too much.

[cycloneye]

Maybe this wave sparks El Niño or not so fast?

@PaulRoundy1
Substantial synoptic westerly wind event in place near the east of New Guinea is associated with an equatorial Rossby wave coupled to the North Pacific blocking ridge. The northern cyclone near 160E is a cut-off low forced by anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking.



 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/972849188886237184

[Kingarabian]

Maybe this wave sparks El Niño or not so fast?

@PaulRoundy1
Substantial synoptic westerly wind event in place near the east of New Guinea is associated with an equatorial Rossby wave coupled to the North Pacific blocking ridge. The northern cyclone near 160E is a cut-off low forced by anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/j5wjZR5.jpg[img]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/972849188886237184[tweet]

Could trigger a larger WWB across the equatorial Pacific. But we're going to need that WWB to be near or east of the dateline.

GFS joins the Euro in showing another WWB forming west of the dateline:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://imgur.com/a/sed30


https://imgur.com/a/oFjRr

[cycloneye]

CPC 3/12/18 weekly update is up from -0.8C last week to now -0.7C on this update.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Shell Mound]

Source: ECMWF charts

The newly released March plumes suggest borderline-El Niño conditions by the peak of the hurricane season.

[OuterBanker]

Source: ECMWF charts

The newly released March plumes suggest borderline-El Niño conditions by the peak of the hurricane season.

We all know how accurate the Euro is.

Same time last year it also had an El Nino for 2017.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 6626533376

[Kingarabian]

From the CPC weekly MJO update:

[Ptarmigan]

https://imgur.com/a/sed30


https://imgur.com/a/oFjRr

Where did you get that chart from?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

They get email to me,v/old account still sends.




http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
13 March 2018 Next issue 27 March 2018
The weak 2017-18 La Niña that has been active since December 2017, has ended. All atmospheric and oceanic indices are now at neutral levels, with most model outlooks suggesting neutral-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and early winter. The ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE.

An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months.

[cycloneye]

From the BoM update:

Sub-surface temperatures for the 5 days ending 11 March show a pool of warmer than average water in the western to central equatorial Pacific around and east of the Date Line and between 100 and 200 m below the surface. This region has shifted further east compared to two weeks ago, and is expected to continue moving east over the coming weeks.

The development of warm sub-surface waters in the western equatorial Pacific is typical during the breakdown of a La Niña event.

Temperatures in the sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific were near average for the 5 days ending 11 March.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: They get email to me,v/old account still sends.




http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
13 March 2018 Next issue 27 March 2018
The weak 2017-18 La Niña that has been active since December 2017, has ended. All atmospheric and oceanic indices are now at neutral levels, with most model outlooks suggesting neutral-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and early winter. The ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE.

An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months.

Thanks. What does MANTUA stand for?

Modoki El Nino if I recall is usually around Region 3.4 and 4.

[StruThiO]

Okay, forgive me here because I am a noob with all this but I couldn't help but make a post after seeing the latest subsurface frame



quite a change from last week, no?