ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ptarmigan]

In terms of comparison this is less than 1982, 1997, and 2015 so far. But a little stronger than 1957 and 2009. Likely closer to 1965 and 1972.

https://i.imgur.com/greIb8x.png

1972-1973 winter was quite cold and snow for Texas. 1973 was wet.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Both the SEAS5 and NMME runs for December still favor the idea of the Niño decaying by the spring. SPB is always a factor that needs to be accounted for no matter what but once again given post-strong Niño climo this would not be surprising.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1732815112635834380

[Teban54]

Both the SEAS5 and NMME runs for December still favor the idea of the Niño decaying by the spring. SPB is always a factor that needs to be accounted for no matter what but once again given post-strong Niño climo this would not be surprising.

https://i.ibb.co/HqvG4kj/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae5f5aceeee00f644d3d6b376763448b1d6fe810205eaf270ce75d9d66ec7606.gif

If we really get to that strong of a cold neutral of La Nina by August 2024, the Atlantic really needs to watch out. That may also give plenty of time for atmosphere coupling just in time for the Caribbean season in Oct/Nov.

Very early to tell, of course.

[Dean_175]

Both the SEAS5 and NMME runs for December still favor the idea of the Niño decaying by the spring. SPB is always a factor that needs to be accounted for no matter what but once again given post-strong Niño climo this would not be surprising.

https://i.ibb.co/HqvG4kj/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae5f5aceeee00f644d3d6b376763448b1d6fe810205eaf270ce75d9d66ec7606.gif

If we really get to that strong of a cold neutral of La Nina by August 2024, the Atlantic really needs to watch out. That may also give plenty of time for atmosphere coupling just in time for the Caribbean season in Oct/Nov.

Very early to tell, of course.

This is said every La Nina, and it often verifies.1995, 2010, 2017,2020,2021. Sometimes not though- as in 2007, 2016, and and 2022(Ian/Fiona , Dean/Felix, and Matthew being the exceptions that essentially defined each of those seasons). Each of those latter seasons were "above average", but not by much if you consider relative to the post-1995 averages. This year was exceptional, particularly given the El Nino. Hopefully next year it doesn't happen.

[Kingarabian]

Solid subsurface cold pool has setup beneath the WPAC. Warm pool to the east continues to be reinforced.

I think we'll see a 2016-esque Nino collapse vs a 2010.

[AnnularCane]

I think we'll see a 2016-esque Nino collapse vs a 2010.

What's the difference between the two?

[Dean_175]

I think we'll see a 2016-esque Nino collapse vs a 2010.

What's the difference between the two?

2010 fell in all nino regions much faster and became a strong Nina. 2016 saw more of a fall in the western regions and the following La Nina in 2017 was stronger. Similar timing though to the beginning of negative nino34 anomaloes in May/June of '16 and '10. Personally I think it is too early to determine what will happen after next spring. I remember people talking about a possible 2020 El Nino after a downwelling Kelvin wave crossed during the winter. Some were very bullish and believed it would be like a repeat of 2015... saying that the strong Kelvin wave and possible springtime coupling on top of pre-existing borderline El Nino warmth that would kick start another significant event. I also remember talk of a possible 2017 El Nino. Both years actually went La Nina. It is just too soon to know. There is quite a bit of spread in the models and ensemble members for next year. Spring Predictability Barrier.

OTOH, a La Nina of some form is favored by both climatology and dynamical models. I believe we will see one but that it is too soon to know how strong.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Solid subsurface cold pool has setup beneath the WPAC. Warm pool to the east continues to be reinforced.

I think we'll see a 2016-esque Nino collapse vs a 2010.

'98 should also be considered given the magnitude of this event. ONI-wise we've already bypassed 2009-10's peak (1.6C) and the Nino evolution/flavor differs, given 09-10 was more CP-based.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1733200209495162918

[Dean_175]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1733200209495162918

Interesting, we are definitely seeing increased jet coupling. That doesn't mean warmth everywhere in the US though, El Nino tends to bring cooler conditions to the deep southeast by enhancing the subtropical Pacific jet.

I saw the hashtag and find it mildly interesting the 2015 El Nino was also referred to as "Godzilla El Nino" by some.

[Kingarabian]

Solid subsurface cold pool has setup beneath the WPAC. Warm pool to the east continues to be reinforced.

I think we'll see a 2016-esque Nino collapse vs a 2010.

'98 should also be considered given the magnitude of this event. ONI-wise we've already bypassed 2009-10's peak (1.6C) and the Nino evolution/flavor differs, given 09-10 was more CP-based.

True. The SOI is also pretty anemic in terms of El Nino coupling. The Pacific as a whole seems to be almost as warm as 2015 and 2018, so it may play a role in a slower El Nino decay. I think it will come down to the usual February WWB (if it's there) and how strong it is.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 down from +2.0C to +1.9C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[weeniepatrol]

Cold pool expanding

[zzzh]

From observations since 1850, if you have a triple La Nina followed by an El Nino, then the next year will always be neutral or El Nino. Will 2024 be the first Nina?

[cycloneye]

The December CPC update has El Niño going away by Spring and then Neutral to La Niña is forecast to come by the summer. There is 60% of ENSO being Neutral by April / May / June.

Almost all the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a continuation of the El Niño event during the boreal winter and early boreal spring of 2024, which rapidly weakens thereafter. ENSO-neutral conditions become the most likely category in May-Jul, of 2024, and remain so during rest of the forecast period.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

Here is the ENSO BLOG that has more detailed analysis of the December update.

Here are excerpts:

There were some pretty strong “westerly wind bursts,” what we call it when the trade winds slow, during November. These events kicked off a downwelling Kelvin wave, increasing the amount of warm water under the surface of the Pacific. The amount of warm water is still lagging behind what it was during the strongest events on record, as I discussed in October, but it’s a solid source of warm water that will continue to feed the surface over the next few months.

What goes up must come down! Our current thinking is that neutral conditions are most likely to develop by April­–June. Then… what’s that blue bar lurking on the right side?? La Niña and neutral are nearly even odds for July­–September, with El Niño a distant third. Most, but not all, of the stronger El Niño events in our historical record were followed by La Niña, so that would not be unusual.

[Blown Away]

Here is the ENSO BLOG that has more detailed analysis of the December update.

Here are excerpts:

There were some pretty strong “westerly wind bursts,” what we call it when the trade winds slow, during November. These events kicked off a downwelling Kelvin wave, increasing the amount of warm water under the surface of the Pacific. The amount of warm water is still lagging behind what it was during the strongest events on record, as I discussed in October, but it’s a solid source of warm water that will continue to feed the surface over the next few months.

What goes up must come down! Our current thinking is that neutral conditions are most likely to develop by April­–June. Then… what’s that blue bar lurking on the right side?? La Niña and neutral are nearly even odds for July­–September, with El Niño a distant third. Most, but not all, of the stronger El Niño events in our historical record were followed by La Niña, so that would not be unusual.

Next question, will there still be above average SST's in the Atlantic as we move into a cooler neutral or Nina? If yes, the crazy 2024 season may happen.

IMO, 2023 confirmed extreme SST's in the Atlantic can lead to an above average hurricane season even with typical hostile Nino upper levels.

Interesting weather we are experiencing these days.

[Dean_175]

Sizable WWB taking hold near the dateline and progressing eastward. A bit late in the game, but could it reverse some of the recent cooling we have seen in the weeklies and warm it up to +2.0C?

[cycloneye]

There is a large cold pool of water in the dateline. Will that trim El Niño?