ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8561 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:16 pm

I'll take a guess at 0.2C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8562 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:00 pm

GFS showing a full week of completely relaxed easterlies and may be trending towards a moderate WWB from 140W-->90W. Could see warming in these regions. Also coincides with the increased TC chances.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8563 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:23 am

Looks like 0.2C coming at the update
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8564 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:00 am

CPC text of the weekly update of 8/7/17 that has Nino 3.4 up to +0.2C.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8565 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:22 am

CPC August update has 85% of being Neutral for ASO and down to 55% December thru Febuary.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 August 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during Dec-Feb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.

During July, ENSO-neutral continued, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near average across most of the Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño SST index values were close to zero in all four Niño regions [Fig. 2], having recently decreased from higher levels in the Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was near average during July [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures along the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific overlain by slightly above-average temperatures [Fig. 4]. Tropical convection was near average over the eastern half of the Pacific and enhanced over the western Pacific and the Maritime Continent [Fig. 5]. The lower-level trade winds were slightly enhanced near the International Date Line, and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models favor ENSO-neutral through the remainder of 2017 [Fig. 6]. These predictions, along with the demise of the recent Pacific warmth and continued near-average atmospheric conditions over the Pacific, lead forecasters to favor ENSO-neutral through the winter. However, some chance for El Niño (15-20%) or La Niña (25-30%) remains during the winter. Also, ENSO-neutral conditions are predicted for the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the Atlantic hurricane season. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during Dec-Feb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8566 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:27 am

:uarrow: But interesting that chances of La Nina are higher than El Nino, so in another words chances of El Nino appearing this is now down to almost non-existent.
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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8567 Postby Hunabku » Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:30 pm

This dip towards nina gives a chance for heat to build in the west pacific and for ENSO to do more of a deep cycle, so to speak. This way when it's time for nino to make its appearance, it can have the additional heat/momentum necessary to swing back into a full-fledged nino. Right now there isn't that much heat in west pac for WWBs to send east, but that will change eventually.

Oh and the current trend of dropping PDO seems to be telecasting (w/typical 3 month or so delay) into the more nina state that the models are forecasting.
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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8568 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:01 pm

I wonder what Mantua will go with for the PDO... Complicated setup since waters east of Japan are warm yet the NW America waters have really warmed.

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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8569 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:58 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I wonder what Mantua will go with for the PDO... Complicated setup since waters east of Japan are warm yet the NW America waters have really warmed.

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The Pacific is overall warm still, thinking still +PDO maybe +.30 to .50 range
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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8570 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:13 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8571 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:23 am

Now this is something that might not be explained. We like to talk about the Central and East Pacific during El nino's and La nina's but how about the West Pacific? It's pretty much above average right now. Development of el nino, that warm water gets pushed east by Kelvin Waves, MJO etc. while a La nina or Neutral, that warm water stays put with nothing to push it. Or is it the other way around? It's like the WPAC holds a darker secret about what might transpire.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8572 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:27 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC August Update: 85% of Neutral thru ASO / Down to 55% Dec/Feb

#8573 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:32 am

euro6208 wrote:Now this is something that might not be explained. We like to talk about the Central and East Pacific during El nino's and La nina's but how about the West Pacific? It's pretty much above average right now. Development of el nino, that warm water gets pushed east by Kelvin Waves, MJO etc. while a La nina or Neutral, that warm water stays put with nothing to push it. Or is it the other way around? It's like the WPAC holds a darker secret about what might transpire.


WPAC waters are almost always the warmest around. Especially the past decade it's been very warm. The relationship with ENSO is more about wind stress and the thermocline depression. At the surface the volume of warm water is a part of that puzzle but not all.

As said many times the ENSO enigma is an Ocean-Atmosphere coupled pair. When you have both, then you have a trip to La Nina or El Nino, when you don't have both as now you tend to straggle neutral. The ebb and flow argument between Nino ocean, Nina atmosphere vice versa just gives more mixed signals than answers in due part to this lack of coupling. Sometimes you don't need to over-analyze it's neutral and at times will show tendencies of Nino and others Nina but not coupled.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8574 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:43 am

Also of note, the latest ONI update tweaked trimonthlies bringing it down that was previously 0.5C to now 0.4C and 0.3C for the latest

Code: Select all

2017

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.3
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8575 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:03 pm

Is it just me or has the EPac been much more active than the Atlantic the past few years? It always seems like storms are firing up over there.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8576 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:08 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the EPac been much more active than the Atlantic the past few years? It always seems like storms are firing up over there.


2014 - Weak El Nino/Warm PDO
2015 - Super El Nino/Warm PDO
2016 - Lingering effects from prior Super El Nino/Warm PDO
2017 - failed El Nino/Warm PDO
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8577 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the EPac been much more active than the Atlantic the past few years? It always seems like storms are firing up over there.


2014 - Weak El Nino/Warm PDO
2015 - Super El Nino/Warm PDO
2016 - Lingering effects from prior Super El Nino/Warm PDO
2017 - failed El Nino/Warm PDO

If 2018 doesn't become an El Nino and the PDO can finally come down for the first time since the 2014-15 event, could the Atlantic potentially turn more active with slightly less hurdles?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8578 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:28 pm

I moved some recent posts from the models page to here since it reflects more to this topic.

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Is it just me or has the EPac been much more active than the Atlantic the past few years? It always seems like storms are firing up over there.


2014 - Weak El Nino/Warm PDO
2015 - Super El Nino/Warm PDO
2016 - Lingering effects from prior Super El Nino/Warm PDO
2017 - failed El Nino/Warm PDO

If 2018 doesn't become an El Nino and the PDO can finally come down for the first time since the 2014-15 event, could the Atlantic potentially turn more active with slightly less hurdles?


The PDO will likely come down, with meaningful duration, in the next major La Nina or series of significant La Ninas. It will take an event(s) of that magnitude to flip the NPO and SST configs of the NHEM Pacific. La Nina more often than not feature more intense, and more numerous big hurricanes for the Atlantic. Shear is also very favorable for the Caribbean cruisers of which big Nina seasons are known for.

1988, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2007, 2010 had some big ones all La Nina seasons just to pick a few. 2016 last year was a weak La Nina season. La Ninas in general tips the odds towards the Atlantic the same way El Nino does to the Pacific basins.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8579 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 12, 2017 4:01 pm

Nino 3.4 cooled down once again this week, update on Monday should go back down to 0C. IMO.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8580 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:05 am

CPC text update has Nino 3.4 at -0.2C and Nino 1+2 at -0.3C.

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


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