ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

The spring barrier is still a factor but the latest CFS shows mostly neutral ENSO for the peak season.




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[cycloneye]

The SOI continues very positive with no big sign of crashing to negative anytime soon.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Code: Select all

15 Apr 2018   1012.52   1008.40   12.47   11.50   5.56
14 Apr 2018   1009.79   1009.80   -17.31   11.25   5.55
13 Apr 2018   1013.39   1009.75   9.01   11.87   5.81
12 Apr 2018   1014.92   1009.90   18.96   11.65   5.77
11 Apr 2018   1013.49   1009.75   9.73   11.12   5.66
10 Apr 2018   1012.28   1010.90   -7.28   10.87   5.64
9 Apr 2018   1012.48   1010.50   -2.96   11.08   5.71
8 Apr 2018   1013.65   1009.95   9.44   11.53   5.68
7 Apr 2018   1013.60   1008.90   16.65   11.73   5.46
6 Apr 2018   1012.94   1007.75   20.19   11.63   5.11
5 Apr 2018   1011.96   1006.65   21.05   11.09   4.70
4 Apr 2018   1012.45   1007.65   17.38   10.47   4.39
3 Apr 2018   1012.83   1006.90   25.52   10.15   4.20
2 Apr 2018   1012.88   1006.15   31.29   9.72   4.01
1 Apr 2018   1012.64   1006.55   26.68   9.14   3.79
31 Mar 2018   1012.25   1007.45   3.30   8.48   3.57
30 Mar 2018   1013.00   1007.75   5.46   8.59   3.60
29 Mar 2018   1014.21   1006.20   18.67   8.64   3.52
28 Mar 2018   1011.41   1005.85   6.94   8.50   3.32
27 Mar 2018   1011.86   1005.75   9.57   9.00   3.22
26 Mar 2018   1013.50   1006.50   13.83   9.11   2.95
25 Mar 2018   1014.02   1007.00   13.93   9.42   2.67
24 Mar 2018   1014.29   1005.35   23.12   9.73   2.42
23 Mar 2018   1012.84   1003.70   24.08   9.45   2.06
22 Mar 2018   1010.01   1004.20   8.14   8.52   1.65
21 Mar 2018   1008.59   1005.75   -6.08   7.82   1.45
20 Mar 2018   1010.11   1007.75   -8.38   7.51   1.49
19 Mar 2018   1012.24   1009.65   -7.28   7.35   1.57
18 Mar 2018   1013.04   1006.25   12.83   7.15   1.58
17 Mar 2018   1012.51   1000.90   35.90   6.47   1.33


[Ntxw]

Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That wwb west of the date line is likely from a triggered warm kw passing asper plot
https://imgur.com/szmI6UR


As for mjo prefer to wait and see if verifies and if it can get pass the maritime with any strength.
https://imgur.com/GKkpZ10

[Ntxw]

In 2018 the MJO has enhanced when crossing the western Pacific. This as been recurring in 30-60 day frames happening in January, February, March, and April so far. Its been crossing the IO at a decent clip, fading in the Maritime then restrengthen over the WPAC. No reason to believe it won't do the same this go round. The WWB is not appearing in a vacuum, it's related to the MJO movement.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ENSO/SST Tracker (04/14/2018)
https://imgur.com/y1qpSr4

https://imgur.com/QZl9K6U
For anyone interested. ATL is the mover of real interest.
StormVista Email Service

[Ntxw]

When looked at side by side you can see the evolution taking place below the surface at the beginning of the month to mid month now. To me, this is far more important than anything at the surface as it foretells going months ahead if you continue the WWBs.

TAO/Triton





Sea level rises are not only in the western tropical Pacific, but beginning to rise in the central areas



EQ heat content is enough to sustain El Nino if one can get going

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Boms sst data and heights + the enso tracker post don't look that impressive atm. Not cherry
picking here just saying.


https://imgur.com/RfPLajL

POAMA Ocean Monitoring Products


https://imgur.com/4wkX3NI



Ncep oisst 3day sst anoms.
https://imgur.com/kjal2NQ

[Kingarabian]

Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO

Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.



Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.

If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.

[Kingarabian]

When looked at side by side you can see the evolution taking place below the surface at the beginning of the month to mid month now. To me, this is far more important than anything at the surface as it foretells going months ahead if you continue the WWBs.

It's important to remember that ENSO is a long term episode. While a lot are focusing on the cool surface SST's, the warm and large sub surface pool cannot be ignored, and in the long term things can quickly change.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I agree with a flip long term. Given how long it takes to all come together just don't see it
in the next 6 months being anything other than neutral.

[NotSparta]

Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO

Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.



Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.

If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.

Looks even further west

[NDG]

Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO

Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.

https://i.imgur.com/zSDsuN5.gif

Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.

If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.

Looks even further west

That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).

[NotSparta]

Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.

https://i.imgur.com/zSDsuN5.gif

Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.

If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.

Looks even further west

That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).

With that wind pattern if we can get an El Niño it would be Modoki (sorry to bring out that word)

[Ntxw]

-0.4C will be at the update

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like La Niña is unofficially over and is unlikely to return this fall/winter. So long, La Niña!

[cycloneye]

@Met_khinz
Nina continues to hold on w/ consistent easterlies east of 180 into early May...research shows lingering ENSO neutral gives merit to warmer risks May into the summer. Need to watch this evolution like a hawk.



 https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/985857177117188096

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 4/16/18 is up to -0.4C at Niño 3.4 and that is up from the -0.5C that was in last week's update. IMO,La Niña Advisory will be gone when the CPC Diagnostic update of May 10th is released.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

@PaulRoundy1
La Niña appears to be ending.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/985892144715128833




@MJVentrice
Showing up in the atmospheric coupling component too...



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/985897307030859776

[NotSparta]

We're behind 2006 (0.0) and 2009 (-0.2) at this time of year.