ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[aspen]

In summary, the WPAC will have a very active season no matter what the state of ENSO.

Even last year, the WPAC got 23 named storms; unless you have something go very wrong like in 2010 or 2017, the WPAC really does not "care" about the ENSO state; in fact, as seen in years like 2008, 2010, and 2020, even if conditions are unfavorable for the WPAC, there has only been like three or four documented years when no Cat 5 super typhoon was every generated.

+/-ENSO states do impact the frequency of powerful storms, the ratio of majors to total named storms, and the tracks and formation hotspots. For example, 2017 was a cool neutral and saw a lot of SCS slop with very few majors and no official Cat 5, while 2018 was a warm neutral/weak Niño with half a dozen long-tracking Cat 5s, four of which (Jebi, Mangkhut, Kong-Rey, and Yutu) have arguments for being 155-165 kt.

But Kaiju and euro are right, the WPac will likely produce something big even if it’s a Niña. Seems like a decent number of Niña years have this single ultra-intense Philippines storm — Zeb in 1998, Megi in 2010, and Goni in 2020.

[Iceresistance]

In summary, the WPAC will have a very active season no matter what the state of ENSO.

Even last year, the WPAC got 23 named storms; unless you have something go very wrong like in 2010 or 2017, the WPAC really does not "care" about the ENSO state; in fact, as seen in years like 2008, 2010, and 2020, even if conditions are unfavorable for the WPAC, there has only been like three or four documented years when no Cat 5 super typhoon was every generated.

+/-ENSO states do impact the frequency of powerful storms, the ratio of majors to total named storms, and the tracks and formation hotspots. For example, 2017 was a cool neutral and saw a lot of SCS slop with very few majors and no official Cat 5, while 2018 was a warm neutral/weak Niño with half a dozen long-tracking Cat 5s, four of which (Jebi, Mangkhut, Kong-Rey, and Yutu) have arguments for being 155-165 kt.

But Kaiju and euro are right, the WPac will likely produce something big even if it’s a Niña. Seems like a decent number of Niña years have this single ultra-intense Philippines storm — Zeb in 1998, Megi in 2010, and Goni in 2020.

Surigae in 2021 meets the criteria for Very Intense Philippine Typhoon during a La Niña?

Also, was 2019 a La Niña year?

[Kingarabian]

In summary, the WPAC will have a very active season no matter what the state of ENSO.

Even last year, the WPAC got 23 named storms; unless you have something go very wrong like in 2010 or 2017, the WPAC really does not "care" about the ENSO state; in fact, as seen in years like 2008, 2010, and 2020, even if conditions are unfavorable for the WPAC, there has only been like three or four documented years when no Cat 5 super typhoon was every generated.

+/-ENSO states do impact the frequency of powerful storms, the ratio of majors to total named storms, and the tracks and formation hotspots. For example, 2017 was a cool neutral and saw a lot of SCS slop with very few majors and no official Cat 5, while 2018 was a warm neutral/weak Niño with half a dozen long-tracking Cat 5s, four of which (Jebi, Mangkhut, Kong-Rey, and Yutu) have arguments for being 155-165 kt.

But Kaiju and euro are right, the WPac will likely produce something big even if it’s a Niña. Seems like a decent number of Niña years have this single ultra-intense Philippines storm — Zeb in 1998, Megi in 2010, and Goni in 2020.

The WPAC already produced something big . There is a correlation for years that have high ACE prior to May 1 and +ENSO.

[aspen]

Even last year, the WPAC got 23 named storms; unless you have something go very wrong like in 2010 or 2017, the WPAC really does not "care" about the ENSO state; in fact, as seen in years like 2008, 2010, and 2020, even if conditions are unfavorable for the WPAC, there has only been like three or four documented years when no Cat 5 super typhoon was every generated.

+/-ENSO states do impact the frequency of powerful storms, the ratio of majors to total named storms, and the tracks and formation hotspots. For example, 2017 was a cool neutral and saw a lot of SCS slop with very few majors and no official Cat 5, while 2018 was a warm neutral/weak Niño with half a dozen long-tracking Cat 5s, four of which (Jebi, Mangkhut, Kong-Rey, and Yutu) have arguments for being 155-165 kt.

But Kaiju and euro are right, the WPac will likely produce something big even if it’s a Niña. Seems like a decent number of Niña years have this single ultra-intense Philippines storm — Zeb in 1998, Megi in 2010, and Goni in 2020.

Surigae in 2021 meets the criteria for Very Intense Philippine Typhoon during a La Niña?

Also, was 2019 a La Niña year?

2019 was also warm neutral/weak Niño. Development was generally east-based instead of west-based like Niña/cool years. Hagibis and Bualoi were long-tracking Cat 5s, and Halong remained quite east for its entire life.

[Iceresistance]

+/-ENSO states do impact the frequency of powerful storms, the ratio of majors to total named storms, and the tracks and formation hotspots. For example, 2017 was a cool neutral and saw a lot of SCS slop with very few majors and no official Cat 5, while 2018 was a warm neutral/weak Niño with half a dozen long-tracking Cat 5s, four of which (Jebi, Mangkhut, Kong-Rey, and Yutu) have arguments for being 155-165 kt.

But Kaiju and euro are right, the WPac will likely produce something big even if it’s a Niña. Seems like a decent number of Niña years have this single ultra-intense Philippines storm — Zeb in 1998, Megi in 2010, and Goni in 2020.

Surigae in 2021 meets the criteria for Very Intense Philippine Typhoon during a La Niña?

Also, was 2019 a La Niña year?

2019 was also warm neutral/weak Niño. Development was generally east-based instead of west-based like Niña/cool years. Hagibis and Bualoi were long-tracking Cat 5s, and Halong remained quite east for its entire life.

2019 seemed like a La Niña because of the twin Cat 5s in the Atlantic (Dorian (The Defying Dorian that will never Die! ) & Lorenzo)

[Kingarabian]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/TEQMon.gif

Also by the way, this is what the CFV2 is predicting in terms of equatorial sst anomalies.

Compared to the beginning of the month, this CFS sub surface graphic shows the model correcting towards a warmer subsurface through JJA:

[Category5Kaiju]

Surigae in 2021 meets the criteria for Very Intense Philippine Typhoon during a La Niña?

Also, was 2019 a La Niña year?

2019 was also warm neutral/weak Niño. Development was generally east-based instead of west-based like Niña/cool years. Hagibis and Bualoi were long-tracking Cat 5s, and Halong remained quite east for its entire life.

2019 seemed like a La Niña because of the twin Cat 5s in the Atlantic (Dorian (The Defying Dorian that will never Die! ) & Lorenzo)

Interestingly, had Dorian not happened (and to a certain extent Lorenzo), 2019 really would not have been a memorable season. Interestingly as well, seasons like 1969, 1992, and 2019 that occurred right after the death of an El Nino each featured a very nasty Category 5 hurricane.

[Shell Mound]

2019 was also warm neutral/weak Niño. Development was generally east-based instead of west-based like Niña/cool years. Hagibis and Bualoi were long-tracking Cat 5s, and Halong remained quite east for its entire life.

2019 seemed like a La Niña because of the twin Cat 5s in the Atlantic (Dorian (The Defying Dorian that will never Die! ) & Lorenzo)

Interestingly, had Dorian not happened (and to a certain extent Lorenzo), 2019 really would not have been a memorable season. Interestingly as well, seasons like 1969, 1992, and 2019 that occurred right after the death of an El Nino each featured a very nasty Category 5 hurricane.

1969, like 2019, was actually a bookended, or back-to-back, Niño. (2018 transitioned directly from La Niña to El Niño, but still featured significant impacts, due to the Niño being “Modoki.”) 1992 transitioned directly from El Niño to cool neutral ENSO. As far as 2021 is concerned, perhaps I am being overly aggressive in regard to the impact of the submarine warm pool, given that a stronger + signature at the subsurface may still be needed to induce full transition to warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO. But I think some people are still underestimating the potential for either warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions this year. We shall see.

[Category5Kaiju]

2019 seemed like a La Niña because of the twin Cat 5s in the Atlantic (Dorian (The Defying Dorian that will never Die! ) & Lorenzo)

Interestingly, had Dorian not happened (and to a certain extent Lorenzo), 2019 really would not have been a memorable season. Interestingly as well, seasons like 1969, 1992, and 2019 that occurred right after the death of an El Nino each featured a very nasty Category 5 hurricane.

1969, like 2019, was actually a bookended, or back-to-back, Niño. (2018 transitioned directly from La Niña to El Niño, but still featured significant impacts, due to the Niño being “Modoki.”) 1992 transitioned directly from El Niño to cool neutral ENSO. As far as 2021 is concerned, perhaps I am being overly aggressive in regard to the impact of the submarine warm pool, given that a stronger + signature at the subsurface may still be needed to induce full transition to warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO. But I think some people are still underestimating the potential for either warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions this year. We shall see.

So theoretically speaking if this year were to be a weak Nino or warm neutral does that mean 2022 would have a greater chance of being another El Nino year or La Nina year or is there like no way to really tell or predict in advance?

[Iceresistance]

Interestingly, had Dorian not happened (and to a certain extent Lorenzo), 2019 really would not have been a memorable season. Interestingly as well, seasons like 1969, 1992, and 2019 that occurred right after the death of an El Nino each featured a very nasty Category 5 hurricane.

1969, like 2019, was actually a bookended, or back-to-back, Niño. (2018 transitioned directly from La Niña to El Niño, but still featured significant impacts, due to the Niño being “Modoki.”) 1992 transitioned directly from El Niño to cool neutral ENSO. As far as 2021 is concerned, perhaps I am being overly aggressive in regard to the impact of the submarine warm pool, given that a stronger + signature at the subsurface may still be needed to induce full transition to warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO. But I think some people are still underestimating the potential for either warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions this year. We shall see.

So theoretically speaking if this year were to be a weak Nino or warm neutral does that mean 2022 would have a greater chance of being another El Nino year or La Nina year or is there like no way to really tell or predict in advance?

I'm thinking that 2022 is likely an El Nino . . .

[Iceresistance]

Interestingly, had Dorian not happened (and to a certain extent Lorenzo), 2019 really would not have been a memorable season. Interestingly as well, seasons like 1969, 1992, and 2019 that occurred right after the death of an El Nino each featured a very nasty Category 5 hurricane.

1969, like 2019, was actually a bookended, or back-to-back, Niño. (2018 transitioned directly from La Niña to El Niño, but still featured significant impacts, due to the Niño being “Modoki.”) 1992 transitioned directly from El Niño to cool neutral ENSO. As far as 2021 is concerned, perhaps I am being overly aggressive in regard to the impact of the submarine warm pool, given that a stronger + signature at the subsurface may still be needed to induce full transition to warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO. But I think some people are still underestimating the potential for either warm neutral ENSO or weak Niño conditions this year. We shall see.

So theoretically speaking if this year were to be a weak Nino or warm neutral does that mean 2022 would have a greater chance of being another El Nino year or La Nina year or is there like no way to really tell or predict in advance?

I'm thinking that 2022 is likely an El Nino . . .

[DorkyMcDorkface]

New Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) plume has flipped towards the cooler side of neutral by JJA.


The April 10th mean was above 0C (warm neutral) by the summer trimonthly period.

[Category5Kaiju]

New Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) plume has flipped towards the cooler side of neutral by JJA.
https://i.ibb.co/FzPQTXJ/sst-Outlooks-nino34-hr-1.png

The April 10th mean was above 0C (warm neutral) by the summer trimonthly period.
https://i.ibb.co/FsjDfVc/sst-Outlooks-nino34-hr-2.png

Wait isn't 0.5 C the threshold for a Nino or Nina?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

New Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) plume has flipped towards the cooler side of neutral by JJA.
https://i.ibb.co/FzPQTXJ/sst-Outlooks-nino34-hr-1.png

The April 10th mean was above 0C (warm neutral) by the summer trimonthly period.
https://i.ibb.co/FsjDfVc/sst-Outlooks-nino34-hr-2.png

Wait isn't 0.5 C the threshold for a Nino or Nina?

BoM's threshold for El Niño (La Niña) is higher (lower) than the CPC's. I personally am not the biggest fan of it either but eh.

[Kingarabian]

New Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) plume has flipped towards the cooler side of neutral by JJA.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/FzPQTXJ/sst-Outlooks-nino34-hr-1.png[url]

The April 10th mean was above 0C (warm neutral) by the summer trimonthly period.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/FsjDfVc/sst-Outlooks-nino34-hr-2.png[url]

Very similar to the CFS.

[GrayLancer18]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1387450033587441665

[Kingarabian]

Here is a comparison of the 850mb wind anomalies 5 day average ending on April 28 2021, 2011, 2008, and 2000:


La Nina forcing was much more prevalent over the dateline in those years compared to 2021. And it wasn't just the last week of April. The entire month of April for those years had above average trades blowing across the CPAC compared to 2021.
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/

[AnnularCane]

Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly is a Modoki La Nina and what does it mean for the Atlantic? I know about the Modoki El Nino but don't know much about the La Nina.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly is a Modoki La Nina and what does it mean for the Atlantic? I know about the Modoki El Nino but don't know much about the La Nina.

La Niña Modoki is just a Niña with the coolest anomalies concentrated further west in the CPAC, just like how El Niño Modoki is the opposite with the warmest anomalies concentrated over there.

Some recent La Niña Modoki years include:

2008

2011

2016

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Here is a comparison of the 850mb wind anomalies 5 day average ending on April 28 2021, 2011, 2008, and 2000:
https://i.imgur.com/05qYSbh.png

La Nina forcing was much more prevalent over the dateline in those years compared to 2021. And it wasn't just the last week of April. The entire month of April for those years had above average trades blowing across the CPAC compared to 2021.
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/

Wondering if the strength of those ENSO events played a role in the persistence of the Niña forcing into the spring? 1999-2000, 2007-08 and 2010-11 were each solidly in the "strong" category (each dipped below -1.5 over the winter) while 2020-21 was more of a moderate event. Could hold little to no relevance in actuality but I was thinking about whether or not it might.