ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[tolakram]

BBC is running it too, source NOAA. Interesting since all signs point to a slow decline post peaking, but maybe they are looking at something we aren't? The article also focuses on longer term effects which generally show up post peak (from what I read into it).

[Yellow Evan]

It's worth noting that the C/WPAC is still quite warm so that may or may not help keep this El Nino rolling a bit. One of the main reasons why this El Nino stayed weak/kept on going after last winter was the warmth in the WPAC.

[Dean_175]

Another big WWB coming:

[Dean_175]

BBC is running it too, source NOAA. Interesting since all signs point to a slow decline post peaking, but maybe they are looking at something we aren't? The article also focuses on longer term effects which generally show up post peak (from what I read into it).

Yeah I agree. Model consensus and climatology seem to support weakening. I'm not sure what they are talking about- unless they are referring to some of the effects of El Nino (which may come later) or the ONI (which may peak NDJ).

[Ntxw]

Another big WWB coming:

At this stage of the Nino (climo weakening) would a WWB cause an OKW? Or is it something reactionary at the surface?

[Ntxw]

These are totals...not anomalies. Just crazy, did 2009-2010 have this kind of WWB going into January?

[1900hurricane]

The westerly wind burst has been kicking up quite a bit of convection near the Dateline. It looks like the wind burst is being propped up by Madden-Julian, and most progs don't have it progressing much in the near future.

[cycloneye]

CPC first update of 2016 of 1/4/16 has Nino 3.4 remaining at +2.7C and is the same as last week's update so no downward trend yet.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Dean_175]

Relative to 1981-2010 climo, ERSSTv4 has December at 2.38, which is the same as November's 2.37C. ESOI was at -3.2 for December, which is the most negative December value on record, and the second most negative overall, behind -3.5 in January 1983.


ONI for OND was 2.25C - which is essentially the same as 1997.

[Ntxw]

ERRSTv3 is a whopping 2.5C...

[cycloneye]

CPC update of 1/11/16 has Nino 3.4 down to +2.6C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Still holding strong so far.

[cycloneye]

Very impressive WWB caused by Pali.

[Ntxw]

What a rare and unusual event with Hurricane Pali. It's about to move into the El Nino territory. 0 to 5N latitude. Very close to the border between Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. Perhaps we'll see some micro cooling of the waters below? Very cool

[Kingarabian]

Very impressive WWB caused by Pali.

How is it looking for neutral ENSO this summer?

[cycloneye]

PDO is down from +1.47C in October to the November data at 0.86C.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

PDO went up to 1.01 for December

[cycloneye]

PDO went up to 1.01 for December

What does this mean for El Nino prospects down the road that it went up again after going down?

[Kingarabian]

PDO went up to 1.01 for December

What does this mean for El Nino prospects down the road that it went up again after going down?

Recent years show that PDO generally warms some at this time of the year.

[Ntxw]

PDO went up to 1.01 for December

What does this mean for El Nino prospects down the road that it went up again after going down?

We'll need to wait for a couple more readings. If it remains positive then the decline of the Nino will continue to be slow like 1983 rather than quick turnaround to Nina. ENSO neutral would then be favored for Hurricane season most likely.