ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/828640174129111040

[Ntxw]

NCDC PDO for Jan came in at +0.21. Eyeballing from past months this roughly converts to +0.75 to +1.25 JISAO reading which has yet to come out. It will be yet another positive reading nonstop since 2014. 2017 looks like it is on path for continued +PDO

[TheStormExpert]

NCDC PDO for Jan came in at +0.21. Eyeballing from past months this roughly converts to +0.75 to +1.25 JISAO reading which has yet to come out. It will be yet another positive reading nonstop since 2014. 2017 looks like it is on path for continued +PDO

What role does a +PDO have on the Atlantic exactly? I've heard about it before but forgot.

[Ntxw]

NCDC PDO for Jan came in at +0.21. Eyeballing from past months this roughly converts to +0.75 to +1.25 JISAO reading which has yet to come out. It will be yet another positive reading nonstop since 2014. 2017 looks like it is on path for continued +PDO

What role does a +PDO have on the Atlantic exactly? I've heard about it before but forgot.

You can kind of look at the PDO as a subtle multiple year reflection of ENSO in the middle and high latitudes. +PDO means much of the North Pacific resembles weather patterns associated with El Nino vice versa. Indirectly +PDO correlates with high EPAC activity, thus sometimes adversely with the Atlantic long term. Likely will have some kind of role in bolstering chances for another Nino, but far too early to tell.

When you are looking at the entirety of this PDO episode since it flipped positive in 2014 the EPAC has seen 3/3 years being much above average ACE. Atlantic is 1/3 above normal ACE.

[cycloneye]

CPC Febuary update has Neutral ENSO up

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
09 February 2017
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017.
La Niña conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were -0.3°C in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions, and +1.5°C in the easternmost Niño-1+2 region [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during January and was slightly positive when averaged across the eastern Pacific [Fig. 3], a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds were near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.
Most models predict the continuation of ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere summer [Fig. 6]. However, a few dynamical model forecasts, including the NCEP CFSv2, anticipate an onset of El Niño as soon as the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2017). Because of typically high uncertainty in forecasts made at this time of the year for the upcoming spring and summer, and the lingering La Niña-like tropical convection patterns, the forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral during the spring with a ~60% chance. Thereafter, there are increasing odds for El Niño toward the second half of 2017 (~50% chance in September-November). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... cpc_update

[wxman57]

You should see the February ECMWF Nino 3.4 forecast. About 60-65% of its members have the anomaly at +1.0 or greater by August. Only 7 members have the 3.4 anomaly at +.5 or less. The mean appears to be about +1.1.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ENSO/SST Tracker.







* A description of the Modoki index can be found at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 003798/pdf

[Hurricaneman]

I have this weird feeling any upcoming El Nino could be of the Madoki kind similar to 1969 especially if the SOI stays in the Neutral range. also in 1969 they did have ENSO 3\4 at or around 1.0 for weeklies even though it was an active season in the Atlantic so that may be something to watch for

[Ntxw]

We'll have to wait and see what kind of Nino. First we need to get a Nino, the last Modoki Nino was 2009, almost 8 years ago

[Kingarabian]

I have this weird feeling any upcoming El Nino could be of the Madoki kind similar to 1969 especially if the SOI stays in the Neutral range. also in 1969 they did have ENSO 3\4 at or around 1.0 for weeklies even though it was an active season in the Atlantic so that may be something to watch for

Don't forget that the 2009 Nino was a hybrid, Modoki/Traditional, and it still shut down the Atlantic hurricane season. I think the most improtant thing to watch is Nino 1+2 and the PDO.

[Ntxw]

I'm not sure I buy this yet but CFSv2 is forecasting a fairly rapid rise the next couple of months into El Nino. That's pretty quick, I'm not thoroughly impressed with the subsurface just yet.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C

Big uptick compared to the past 2 weekly updates when it was at -0.4C

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are in El Nino territory. That was a big jump up at 3.4 makes you wonder if the CFS is onto something

[WeatherEmperor]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are in El Nino territory. That was a big jump up at 3.4 makes you wonder if the CFS is onto something

I know it is still early, but at this point we need to ask how strong is this El Nino going to get? Some of the CFS members have this nearing 2015 levels.

Its one thing to have another El Nino 2 years apart but its really crazy to have 2 super El Nino events 2 years apart. I must say again that it is still early...but if these trends continue its just absolutely unbelievable whats happening...


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[Kingarabian]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are in El Nino territory. That was a big jump up at 3.4 makes you wonder if the CFS is onto something

Idk about the CFS still. Has borderline moderate Nino levels by next month. Can anyone post the Euro forecast?

[Alyono]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are in El Nino territory. That was a big jump up at 3.4 makes you wonder if the CFS is onto something

Idk about the CFS still. Has borderline moderate Nino levels by next month. Can anyone post the Euro forecast?

strong to super el niño

[Hurricaneman]

Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are in El Nino territory. That was a big jump up at 3.4 makes you wonder if the CFS is onto something

Idk about the CFS still. Has borderline moderate Nino levels by next month. Can anyone post the Euro forecast?

strong to super el niño

If the SOI remains Positive the models may not be wrong but the ENSO 1-2 and part of 3 might be cool but we have to remember 1969 was a moderate El Nino Madoki and quite damaging to the US

[Kingarabian]

Up to +0.2 via CDAS dailies.



What's causing this massive upswing? I know there was a WWB but I thought it passed, and at the subsurface, values are not that insanely warm.

[Kingarabian]

If the SOI remains Positive the models may not be wrong but the ENSO 1-2 and part of 3 might be cool but we have to remember 1969 was a moderate El Nino Madoki and quite damaging to the US

Agreed. Although we have till June/July to see if the atmosphere responds/welcomes the El-Nino - from what we seen these past couple of years, it's all shot to hell if the SOI does not tank.

[Alyono]

was some research presented last year that modeling studies have showed that a Modoki can actually be worse for the Atlantic than a traditional el niño. I myself have a hard time wrapping my head around that theory as the upward branch of the Walker Circulation should be farther west in a Modoki, keeping the shear farther west.

Partially explains why 2015 was so active in the tropical Atlantic. That was practically a Modoki and the very strong shear did not extend past 50-55W