ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM 5/24/16: El Nino ends
You'd think the trades would've gotten the nina memo by now. This is keeping the cold tongue and deeper-cooler waters from Ekman transporting to the surface and dropping us into negative SST land.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM 5/24/16: El Nino ends
Nino 3.4 on CDAS has been creeping up.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ENSO Updates
CFS and ECMWF are showing only weak La Nina this year (peak between -0.5C and -1C) . Certainly not showing anything like 1998 or 2010. In fact, CFS is showing that the subsurface cold pool is at it's strongest right now- and SSH anomalies and subsurface temperature anomalies are shown to become much less negative late summer-early fall. You need continuous reinforcement of subsurface anomalies to produce sustained cooling/warming trend at the surface.
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Re: ENSO Updates
The +PDO configuration has continued throughout May. This has been a deterrent for ENSO development in the past.
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Re: ENSO Updates
-0.1C this week
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Re: ENSO Updates
I thought they would take the holiday off but here is the text of CPC update with Nino 3.4 at -0.1C.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
Dean_175 wrote:CFS and ECMWF are showing only weak La Nina this year (peak between -0.5C and -1C) . Certainly not showing anything like 1998 or 2010. In fact, CFS is showing that the subsurface cold pool is at it's strongest right now- and SSH anomalies and subsurface temperature anomalies are shown to become much less negative late summer-early fall. You need continuous reinforcement of subsurface anomalies to produce sustained cooling/warming trend at the surface.
Interesting how SSHAs have grown during May while also migrating further west.
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:I thought they would take the holiday off but here is the text of CPC update with Nino 3.4 at +0.1C.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Did you meant to type -0.1C ?
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Re: ENSO Updates
NDG wrote:cycloneye wrote:I thought they would take the holiday off but here is the text of CPC update with Nino 3.4 at +0.1C.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Did you meant to type -0.1C ?
Fixed it.
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Re: ENSO:CPC 5/30/16 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C
Looks like we are now in the negative numbers for ENSO and dropping slowly towards La Nina
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ENSO:CPC 5/30/16 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C
Just like in '98 the SOI took a little while but it has finally gone positive in its 30 day average, 4 days in row now.
Date: 30 May, 2016
Average SOI for last 30 days : 2.77
Average SOI for last 90 days : -7.09
Daily contributor to SOI calculation: -8.25
Date: 30 May, 2016
Average SOI for last 30 days : 2.77
Average SOI for last 90 days : -7.09
Daily contributor to SOI calculation: -8.25
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Re: ENSO: CPC 6/6/16 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C
CPC update of 6/6/16 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present
Final El Nino advisory / El Nino officially is over / Neutral conditions are present
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
El Niño dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned during over the past month, as indicated by the expansion of near-to-below average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Other than the westernmost Niño-4 region, the Niño indices were near zero by the end of May (Fig. 2). Below-average subsurface temperatures continued (Fig. 3) and extended to the surface across the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). For the first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean were also consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero, while the upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was also near-average over the central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions.
Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the Northern Hemisphere fall (Fig. 6). However, most dynamical models indicate La Niña onset as soon as the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is slightly favored by the forecaster consensus. In contrast, many statistical models favor a later onset time, with about half indicating the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. At this time, the forecasters are leaning toward a weak or borderline moderate La Niña if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
El Niño dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned during over the past month, as indicated by the expansion of near-to-below average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Other than the westernmost Niño-4 region, the Niño indices were near zero by the end of May (Fig. 2). Below-average subsurface temperatures continued (Fig. 3) and extended to the surface across the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). For the first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean were also consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero, while the upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was also near-average over the central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions.
Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the Northern Hemisphere fall (Fig. 6). However, most dynamical models indicate La Niña onset as soon as the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is slightly favored by the forecaster consensus. In contrast, many statistical models favor a later onset time, with about half indicating the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. At this time, the forecasters are leaning toward a weak or borderline moderate La Niña if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html
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Re: 6/9/16: Final El Nino advisory: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present
The memes are out there.
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Re: 6/9/16: Final El Nino advisory: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present
So after this El Niño-La Niña sequence, what are the historical chances that the next year (2017) is just neutral?
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Re: 6/9/16: Final El Nino advisory: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present
bg1 wrote:So after this El Niño-La Niña sequence, what are the historical chances that the next year (2017) is just neutral?
The new header is we are Neutral now,maybe La-Nina in 2017?
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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35
The May index of the PDO is down from +2.62 in April to the May reading of +2.35.Let's see how it does in the next few months to see if it continues to go down or not.
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35
PDO did go down a little from April, but it is still the highest May reading on record. +PDO configuration continues...
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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35
June's PDO is likely to be positive too. In fact looking at most guidance we're probably going to stay +PDO throughout 2016. The best period for a shift would be in the winter if they do. This +PDO came before the El Nino and has endured even after it's demise. There has definitely been a regime shift with the North Pacific as compared to prior 2013.
Left is +PDO right is -PDO
This La Nina is different compared to the past few, as those were precluded by much cooler waters above and below them in the eastern Pacific (both hemispheres)
This may be the reason consensus has backed off some to weak-low end moderate Nina vs a full blow strong event.
Left is +PDO right is -PDO
This La Nina is different compared to the past few, as those were precluded by much cooler waters above and below them in the eastern Pacific (both hemispheres)
This may be the reason consensus has backed off some to weak-low end moderate Nina vs a full blow strong event.
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Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35
Ntxw,trade winds are weak right now right? Do you think the final El Nino advisory was right to be released by CPC on June 9 or it was a little bit premature?
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