ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Hunabku
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 67
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 1:50 am

Re: ENSO Updates: BoM 5/24/16: El Nino ends

#7101 Postby Hunabku » Fri May 27, 2016 11:15 pm

You'd think the trades would've gotten the nina memo by now. This is keeping the cold tongue and deeper-cooler waters from Ekman transporting to the surface and dropping us into negative SST land.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates: BoM 5/24/16: El Nino ends

#7102 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 28, 2016 12:25 am

Nino 3.4 on CDAS has been creeping up.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Dean_175
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#7103 Postby Dean_175 » Sun May 29, 2016 7:07 pm

CFS and ECMWF are showing only weak La Nina this year (peak between -0.5C and -1C) . Certainly not showing anything like 1998 or 2010. In fact, CFS is showing that the subsurface cold pool is at it's strongest right now- and SSH anomalies and subsurface temperature anomalies are shown to become much less negative late summer-early fall. You need continuous reinforcement of subsurface anomalies to produce sustained cooling/warming trend at the surface.
0 likes   
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#7104 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 29, 2016 8:38 pm

The +PDO configuration has continued throughout May. This has been a deterrent for ENSO development in the past.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#7105 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 30, 2016 12:15 pm

-0.1C this week
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#7106 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2016 1:21 pm

I thought they would take the holiday off but here is the text of CPC update with Nino 3.4 at -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Hunabku
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 67
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 1:50 am

Re: ENSO Updates

#7107 Postby Hunabku » Mon May 30, 2016 2:07 pm

Dean_175 wrote:CFS and ECMWF are showing only weak La Nina this year (peak between -0.5C and -1C) . Certainly not showing anything like 1998 or 2010. In fact, CFS is showing that the subsurface cold pool is at it's strongest right now- and SSH anomalies and subsurface temperature anomalies are shown to become much less negative late summer-early fall. You need continuous reinforcement of subsurface anomalies to produce sustained cooling/warming trend at the surface.

Interesting how SSHAs have grown during May while also migrating further west.
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#7108 Postby NDG » Mon May 30, 2016 3:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:I thought they would take the holiday off but here is the text of CPC update with Nino 3.4 at +0.1C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


Did you meant to type -0.1C ?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#7109 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2016 3:46 pm

NDG wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I thought they would take the holiday off but here is the text of CPC update with Nino 3.4 at +0.1C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


Did you meant to type -0.1C ?


Fixed it. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ENSO:CPC 5/30/16 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C

#7110 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon May 30, 2016 10:38 pm

Looks like we are now in the negative numbers for ENSO and dropping slowly towards La Nina

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO:CPC 5/30/16 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C

#7111 Postby NDG » Tue May 31, 2016 6:54 am

Just like in '98 the SOI took a little while but it has finally gone positive in its 30 day average, 4 days in row now.

Date: 30 May, 2016

Average SOI for last 30 days : 2.77
Average SOI for last 90 days : -7.09
Daily contributor to SOI calculation: -8.25
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC 6/6/16 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C

#7112 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2016 8:40 am

CPC update of 6/6/16 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: Breaking News: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present

#7113 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:59 am

Final El Nino advisory / El Nino officially is over / Neutral conditions are present

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2016


ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch



Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.

El Niño dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned during over the past month, as indicated by the expansion of near-to-below average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Other than the westernmost Niño-4 region, the Niño indices were near zero by the end of May (Fig. 2). Below-average subsurface temperatures continued (Fig. 3) and extended to the surface across the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). For the first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean were also consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero, while the upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was also near-average over the central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the Northern Hemisphere fall (Fig. 6). However, most dynamical models indicate La Niña onset as soon as the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is slightly favored by the forecaster consensus. In contrast, many statistical models favor a later onset time, with about half indicating the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. At this time, the forecasters are leaning toward a weak or borderline moderate La Niña if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 6/9/16: Final El Nino advisory: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present

#7114 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2016 12:45 pm

The memes are out there.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: 6/9/16: Final El Nino advisory: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present

#7115 Postby bg1 » Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:26 pm

So after this El Niño-La Niña sequence, what are the historical chances that the next year (2017) is just neutral?
0 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1568
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: 6/9/16: Final El Nino advisory: Officially El Nino is gone / Neutral conditions are present

#7116 Postby Javlin » Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:37 pm

bg1 wrote:So after this El Niño-La Niña sequence, what are the historical chances that the next year (2017) is just neutral?


The new header is we are Neutral now,maybe La-Nina in 2017?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35

#7117 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:48 pm

The May index of the PDO is down from +2.62 in April to the May reading of +2.35.Let's see how it does in the next few months to see if it continues to go down or not.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35

#7118 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:12 pm

PDO did go down a little from April, but it is still the highest May reading on record. +PDO configuration continues...
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35

#7119 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:01 am

June's PDO is likely to be positive too. In fact looking at most guidance we're probably going to stay +PDO throughout 2016. The best period for a shift would be in the winter if they do. This +PDO came before the El Nino and has endured even after it's demise. There has definitely been a regime shift with the North Pacific as compared to prior 2013.

Image

Left is +PDO right is -PDO
Image

This La Nina is different compared to the past few, as those were precluded by much cooler waters above and below them in the eastern Pacific (both hemispheres)

Image

This may be the reason consensus has backed off some to weak-low end moderate Nina vs a full blow strong event.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: May PDO index down to +2.35

#7120 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:47 pm

Ntxw,trade winds are weak right now right? Do you think the final El Nino advisory was right to be released by CPC on June 9 or it was a little bit premature?

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, KirbyDude25, Wampadawg and 62 guests